ONON

On Holding AG ·NYSE·Consumer Discretionary
28.97 live · 2026-08-27 14:58

Some scores are at the bottom of their range

This score sits at the bottom of the 0–100 range. The underlying calculation was negative, so the displayed value is a floor, not a measurement of zero.

  • Tactical Score: displayed 0, underlying value -58.6
32.3%
Brown Bear Score
58.4%
Business Conviction Score
20.0%
Position Health Score
17.2%
Chase Risk
Daily closes

Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · -35.3% · range 28.83–50.63

The Businesswhat the company reports

Business & cash flow

FCF / revenue 11.9%
Gross margin 63.9%
ROIC 10.8%
Forward P/E 14.0

No annual filing with both total assets and a cash-flow figure is cached for this name, so neither validated measure can be computed. FCF/revenue is shown instead, which is not the validated measure.

Price vs Earnings growth

Forward EPS growth has outpaced trailing price return by +75.9pp

Confidence 95.0/100

Takeaway Earnings growth is outpacing price — consistent with the stock not yet fully reflecting its improving forward estimates.

The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑

Price Levels

StrategyCurrent Price Reasonable
Reference band 28.79 — 29.52
Protective stop 26.40 (Atr, 9.5% risk)
Support (0 touches, — away)
Resistance 35.34 (20.9% away)

Takeaway The shares are about 20.9% below 35.34, where sellers have turned up before. There is no floor to point to in the recent record. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 9.5% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.

Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.

Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)

Daily cloudPrice BELOW the cloud | periods 5/15/31 (59% of classic 9/26/52)
LinesTenkan/Kijun BEAR | cloud twist BEAR
Cloud thickness82% percentile (thick — substantial structure)
Chikou spanNot clear of price from 26 periods ago
Weekly cloudPrice BELOW the weekly cloud (context only, not scored)

Takeaway The stock is trading below its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 31.29 to 33.80. Being below it means the medium-term picture is pointing downwards, and that band is the first hurdle it would have to climb back through. Its shorter-term averages agree with that. The band is unusually wide at the moment, so it marks a broad zone rather than a single level.

Trailing returns

21 days -22.9%
63 days -26.2%
126 days -37.3%
252 days -35.9%
Below 252d high42.3%

Trend context

PositionFar below trend
ExtensionOversold
Trend slopeFalling sharply
Direction of travelHolding its deviation

Takeaway Kalman fair trend is falling sharply; downside trend risk remains elevated.

Volatility

State Expanding
Current band width43.7% of price
Recent tightest26.3% (9 sessions ago, narrower than 28.0% of its history)
Expansion since1.66×
Band 26.08 — 40.68

Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 44% wide. That is normal for this stock, so there is nothing unusual to read into it either way.

Historical trends

02550751002026-07-242026-08-26
Position Health Business Conviction

History begins when the site started recording, not when the company listed, so a short line means a short record and nothing more.

Repair Pathway

  1. Nearest Trigger RSI recovery above 50 repair trigger repair engine identifies this as the nearest technical repair catalyst · Deteriorating
  2. Trigger 2 MACD repair streak continuation 4 improving bars MACD histogram has improved for 4 consecutive sessions · Broadly stable
  3. Trigger 3 Volume confirmation above 1.2x +0.20x volume confirmation would improve confidence in the pathway · Broadly stable
  4. Trigger 4 Positive 20-day momentum acceleration secondary repair secondary repair catalyst could add confirmation if the primary trigger develops · Broadly stable
  5. Trigger 5 MACD histogram above zero 0.42 gap is improving · Broadly stable

Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑

Insider activity

ActivityInsider buying
Buy filings2
Sell filings0
Shares bought130,000
Value bought$4.0m
Latest buy2026-08-14
FiledInsiderSharesValue
2026-08-14 Bought Bernhard OlivierExecutive Officer 65,000 $1,993,790
2026-08-14 Bought Coppetti Caspar FelixExecutive Officer & Co-CEO 65,000 $1,993,790

Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.

Volume confirmation

Volume-price trend Below its signal line
Confirmation Strong
Event Absorption (1 session(s) ago)
Volume percentile90%
Range percentile13%
Close within the bar53% of range
Event level 28.55 (held)

Takeaway The heaviest trading has been happening on days when the price falls: when large numbers of shares change hands, the price has tended to go down rather than up. That tells you where the weight of trading has been. It does not tell you what happens next, and it is not a signal to sell. There was also a day 1 session(s) ago when a great many shares changed hands and the price barely moved — buyers took everything that was offered without the price falling, and it has held since.

Options Positioning

No binary-event flag

ONON: no binary-event flag. Near IV 37%, far IV 46% (ratio 0.80), implied move 4.4%.

Implied volatility 37% near (8d) · 46% far (113d)
Term structure 0.80× near/far
Historical volatility 80%
Implied vs historical 0.46×
Implied move ±4.3% by 2026-09-04
Implied move vs ATR 0.40×
Skew Call Skew (0.91×)
Call wall 45.00 (+55.4% away)
Put wall 27.50 (-5.1% away)
Gamma pin 30.00

Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs less for the next few weeks than for the next few months, which is the normal state of affairs and suggests no particular date is worrying anyone. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 4.3% in either direction by 2026-09-04.

Chain as at 2026-08-27. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.

Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑

Relative Rotation

ImprovingLeadingLaggingWeakeningvs sectorvs SPYsector vs SPYRS-Ratio →RS-Momentum →

Early Stock Rotation

Rotation health 63.3/100; Positive Rotation.

Rotation health 63.3
Rotation strength 76.4
LegQuadrantRS-RatioRS-Mom
Stock vs sector Improving 84.7 111.7
Stock vs SPY Improving 84.7 108.0
Sector vs SPY Weakening 110.8 88.9

Direction of travel: North-East / strengthening leadership

Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.

News Headlines

  1. Loading headlines\u2026

Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.

Detailed Scoring

Positive signals

  • Piotroski F-score 6/9 (+21.4)
  • Altman Z-score 13.02 (+14.3)
  • Insider conviction score (+10.6)
  • Gross margin quality: 63.9% (+12.9)
  • ROIC quality: 10.8% (+3.9)
  • FCF margin quality: 11.9% (+6.4)
  • Gross margin improving by 3.2 pts (+1.6)
  • FCF margin improving by -10.1 pts (+-2.4)
  • High earnings quality (accrual ratio -0.055) (+4.0)
  • Track 1: ADX 37.4 and rising (+8.0)
  • Track 1: MACD histogram acceleration 0.18 (+4.0)
  • Track 1: Bollinger position 0.22 (+6.3)

Negative signals

  • Underperforming sector over 20 days
  • Relative strength versus sector deteriorating
  • Track 1: negative 20-day momentum acceleration (-0.30)
  • Track 1: bearish DI spread (-34.4)
  • Weak relative momentum rank (0.04)
  • Track 1: price below EMA20 by 9.9%
  • Track 1: EMA20 slope deteriorating -5.6%
  • Track 1: weak MACD line/signal structure (-5.0)
  • Track 1: MACD slope deteriorating (-3.0)
  • Track 1: RSI deterioration/extension 23.2, 5-day change -9.0
  • Track 1: weak VPT confirmation (-0.53)
  • Track 1: price below EMA50 by 15.8%
  • Track 1: EMA50 slope deteriorating -5.8%
  • ROIC improving by -6.5 pts (+-4.0)

Chase risk is not elevated for this name, so extension penalties are omitted from the negative signals above.