OPFI
Structural scoring is not meaningful for this business
Structural scoring uses gross margin, free cash flow and Altman Z — measures built for operating companies. For banks, insurers and asset managers they produce artifacts, because the cash-flow statement is dominated by lending and deposit flows rather than operations. Treat the structural and composite figures below as not comparable with other sectors, in either direction.
- Cost of goods sold is not reported, so gross margin reads as 100%
Some scores are at the bottom of their range
This score sits at the bottom of the 0–100 range. The underlying calculation was negative, so the displayed value is a floor, not a measurement of zero.
- Tactical Score: displayed 0, underlying value -29.2
Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · -33.8% · range 6.59–12.24
The Businesswhat the company reports
Business & cash flow
| FCF / assets | 50.7% |
|---|---|
| OCF / assets | 53.2% |
| FCF / revenue | 67.2% |
| Gross margin | 100.0% |
| ROIC | 57.3% |
| Forward P/E | 3.7 |
FCF/assets and OCF/assets are the cash-flow measures Brown Bear's own testing found to survive; FCF/revenue is shown alongside for context. Assets are from the latest annual filing (FY2025).
Price vs Earnings growth
Price has run ahead of forward EPS growth by 2.9pp
Confidence 95.0/100
Drivers
| Forward EPS growth | -36.7% |
|---|---|
| Trailing price return (1y) | -33.8% |
| Forward P/E compression | -58.0% |
Figures
| Trailing EPS | 3.01 |
|---|---|
| Forward EPS | 1.91 |
| Trailing P/E | 2.36 |
| Forward P/E | 3.73 |
Revisions
Rapidly Deteriorating (-13.2%, 2 prior obs)
Takeaway Price and forward earnings growth are broadly in step; no strong valuation lean either way.
The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑
Price Levels
| Strategy | Current Price Reasonable |
|---|---|
| Reference band | 6.99 — 7.17 |
| Protective stop | 6.05 (Atr, 14.6% risk) |
| Support | — (0 touches, — away) |
| Resistance | 8.33 (17.3% away) |
Takeaway The shares are about 17.3% below 8.33, where sellers have turned up before. There is no floor to point to in the recent record. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 14.6% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.
Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.
Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)
| Daily cloud | Price BELOW the cloud | periods 5/14/28 (54% of classic 9/26/52) |
|---|---|
| Lines | Tenkan/Kijun BEAR | cloud twist BEAR |
| Cloud thickness | 100% percentile (thick — substantial structure) |
| Chikou span | Not clear of price from 26 periods ago |
| Weekly cloud | Price BELOW the weekly cloud (context only, not scored) |
Takeaway The stock is trading below its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 7.36 to 8.35. Being below it means the medium-term picture is pointing downwards, and that band is the first hurdle it would have to climb back through. Its shorter-term averages agree with that. The band is unusually wide at the moment, so it marks a broad zone rather than a single level.
Trailing returns
| 21 days | -26.4% |
|---|---|
| 63 days | -16.1% |
| 126 days | -24.0% |
| 252 days | -28.8% |
| Below 252d high | 42.0% |
Trend context
| Position | Far below trend |
|---|---|
| Extension | Normal |
| Trend slope | Falling sharply |
| Direction of travel | Converging back to trend |
Takeaway Kalman fair trend is falling sharply; downside trend risk remains elevated.
Volatility
| State | No recent compression |
|---|---|
| Current band width | 63.5% of price |
| Recent tightest | 43.7% (9 sessions ago, narrower than 8.0% of its history) |
| Expansion since | 1.45× |
| Band | 5.49 — 10.59 |
Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 64% wide. That is normal for this stock, so there is nothing unusual to read into it either way.
Historical trends
History begins when the site started recording, not when the company listed, so a short line means a short record and nothing more.
Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑
Insider activity
| Activity | Mixed buying and selling |
|---|---|
| Buy filings | 9 |
| Sell filings | 1 |
| Shares bought | 104,500 |
| Shares sold | 28,485 |
| Value bought | $746.0k |
| Value sold | $204.0k |
| Latest buy | 2026-08-25 |
| Latest sell | 2026-08-19 |
| Filed | Insider | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Bought Schwartz Todd G.Chief Executive Officer | 3,475 | $25,205 |
| 2026-08-24 | Bought Schwartz Todd G.Chief Executive Officer | 3,475 | $24,831 |
| 2026-08-21 | Bought Schwartz Todd G.Chief Executive Officer | 3,550 | $25,104 |
| 2026-08-20 | Bought Schwartz Todd G.Chief Executive Officer | 3,450 | $24,597 |
| 2026-08-19 | Sold Vennettilli DavidDirector | 28,485 | $203,967 |
| 2026-08-19 | Bought Schwartz Todd G.Chief Executive Officer | 3,500 | $25,053 |
Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.
Volume confirmation
| Volume-price trend | Below its signal line |
|---|---|
| Confirmation | Strong |
No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.
Takeaway The heaviest trading has been happening on days when the price falls: when large numbers of shares change hands, the price has tended to go down rather than up. That tells you where the weight of trading has been. It does not tell you what happens next, and it is not a signal to sell.
Options Positioning
No binary-event flag
OPFI: no binary-event flag. Near IV 46%, far IV 63% (ratio 0.74), implied move 9.3%.
| Implied volatility | 46% near (23d) · 63% far (86d) |
|---|---|
| Term structure | 0.74× near/far |
| Historical volatility | 100% |
| Implied vs historical | 0.46× |
| Implied move | ±9.3% by 2026-09-18 |
| Implied move vs ATR | 0.33× |
| Skew | Put Skew (2.11×) |
Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs less for the next few weeks than for the next few months, which is the normal state of affairs and suggests no particular date is worrying anyone. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 9.3% in either direction by 2026-09-18.
Chain as at 2026-08-26. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.
Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑
Relative Rotation
Early Stock Rotation
Rotation health 76.2/100; Strong Rotation Tailwind.
| Rotation health | 76.2 |
|---|---|
| Rotation strength | 80.0 |
| Leg | Quadrant | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock vs sector | Improving | 88.7 | 108.1 |
| Stock vs SPY | Improving | 88.9 | 114.4 |
| Sector vs SPY | Improving | 92.5 | 124.1 |
Direction of travel: North-East / strengthening leadership
Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.
News Headlines
- Loading headlines\u2026
Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.
Detailed Scoring
Positive signals
- Piotroski F-score 5/9 (+10.0)
- Altman Z-score 9.95 (+10.0)
- Insider conviction score (+3.0)
- Gross margin quality: 100.0% (+22.0)
- ROIC quality: 57.3% (+30.0)
- FCF margin quality: 67.2% (+20.0)
- Gross margin improving by 20.0 pts (+5.0)
- ROIC improving by 5.8 pts (+5.0)
- FCF margin improving by 5.7 pts (+4.0)
- High earnings quality (accrual ratio -0.497) (+10.0)
- Accrual ratio improving (-0.49 -> -0.50) (+5.0)
- Track 1: MACD histogram state (-0.05) (+3.0)
- Track 1: ADX 50.3 and rising (+10.0)
- Track 1: Bullish MACD divergence (+12.0)
- Track 1: MACD histogram acceleration 0.18 (+4.0)
- Track 1: MACD line/signal repair quality (+3.0)
- Track 1: MACD slope improving (+1.0)
- Track 1: Bollinger position 0.32 (+5.5)
Negative signals
- Underperforming sector over 20 days
- Track 1: weak volume confirmation (0.58x average)
- Relative strength versus sector deteriorating
- Track 1: negative 20-day momentum acceleration (-0.21)
- Track 1: bearish DI spread (-43.2)
- Weak relative momentum rank (0.07)
- Track 1: price below EMA20 by 8.7%
- Track 1: EMA20 slope deteriorating -5.1%
- Track 1: RSI deterioration/extension 22.3, 5-day change -4.6
- Track 1: weak VPT confirmation (-0.53)
- Track 1: price below EMA50 by 15.3%
- Track 1: EMA50 slope deteriorating -6.9%
Chase risk is not elevated for this name, so extension penalties are omitted from the negative signals above.