OR
Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · +23.6% · range 28.05–47.73
The Businesswhat the company reports
Business & cash flow
| FCF / revenue | 88.5% |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 96.9% |
| ROIC | 16.0% |
| Forward P/E | 27.8 |
No annual filing with both total assets and a cash-flow figure is cached for this name, so neither validated measure can be computed. FCF/revenue is shown instead, which is not the validated measure.
Price vs Earnings growth
Price has run ahead of forward EPS growth by 18.7pp
Confidence 95.0/100
Drivers
| Forward EPS growth | +4.9% |
|---|---|
| Trailing price return (1y) | +23.6% |
| Forward P/E compression | +4.7% |
Figures
| Trailing EPS | 1.32 |
|---|---|
| Forward EPS | 1.39 |
| Trailing P/E | 29.11 |
| Forward P/E | 27.75 |
Revisions
Stable (-1.9%, 10 dates)
Takeaway Price has moved further than forward earnings growth currently justifies — worth weighing against the rest of the entry case.
The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑
Price Levels
| Strategy | Fair Value Anchor |
|---|---|
| Reference band | 35.10 — 38.62 |
| Protective stop | 34.21 (Structure, 7.2% risk) |
| Support | 34.77 (3 touches, 10.5% away) |
| Resistance | 40.75 (6.0% away) |
Takeaway The shares are nearer the ceiling than the floor: about 6.0% below 40.75, where sellers have turned up before, and 10.5% above 34.77, where buyers have stepped in before. That floor has held 3 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 7.2% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.
Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.
Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)
| Daily cloud | Price ABOVE the cloud | periods 9/25/50 (97% of classic 9/26/52) |
|---|---|
| Lines | Tenkan/Kijun BULL | cloud twist BULL (fresh up, 3d ago) |
| Cloud event | Fresh up breakout 5d ago |
| Cloud thickness | 68% percentile |
| Chikou span | Above price from 26 periods ago |
| Weekly cloud | Price ABOVE the weekly cloud (context only, not scored) |
Takeaway The stock is trading above its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 33.34 to 35.33. Being above it means the medium-term picture is pointing upwards, and that band is the first place the stock has recent support if it slips back. Its shorter-term averages agree with that.
Trailing returns
| 21 days | +30.5% |
|---|---|
| 63 days | +7.7% |
| 126 days | -16.1% |
| 252 days | +24.9% |
| Below 252d high | 19.5% |
Trend context
| Position | Far above trend |
|---|---|
| Extension | Extended |
| Trend slope | Rising strongly |
| Direction of travel | Diverging from trend |
Takeaway Positive Kalman trend with moderate extension; constructive for momentum but watch entry risk.
Volatility
| State | No recent compression |
|---|---|
| Current band width | 30.5% of price |
| Recent tightest | 22.6% (6 sessions ago, narrower than 38.0% of its history) |
| Expansion since | 1.35× |
| Band | 28.52 — 38.80 |
Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 31% wide. That is normal for this stock, so there is nothing unusual to read into it either way.
Historical trends
History begins when the site started recording, not when the company listed, so a short line means a short record and nothing more.
Repair Pathway
- Nearest Trigger Volume confirmation above 1.2x +0.20x volume confirmation would improve confidence in the pathway · Deteriorating
Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑
Insider activity
| Activity | No filings in the window |
|---|---|
| Buy filings | 0 |
| Sell filings | 0 |
Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.
Volume confirmation
| Volume-price trend | Above its signal line |
|---|---|
| Confirmation | Moderate |
No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.
Takeaway More shares change hands on the days this stock rises than on the days it falls. That is what you would expect to see if the rise is being driven by real buying rather than drifting up on a thin market.
Options Positioning
No binary-event flag
OR: no binary-event flag. Near IV 24%, far IV 56% (ratio 0.43), implied move 4.8%.
| Implied volatility | 24% near (23d) · 56% far (142d) |
|---|---|
| Term structure | 0.43× near/far |
| Historical volatility | 45% |
| Implied vs historical | 0.53× |
| Implied move | ±4.8% by 2026-09-18 |
| Implied move vs ATR | 0.34× |
| Skew | Call Skew (0.92×) |
| Call wall | 40.00 (+4.1% away) |
| Put wall | 25.00 (-35.0% away) |
| Gamma pin | 40.00 |
Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs less for the next few weeks than for the next few months, which is the normal state of affairs and suggests no particular date is worrying anyone. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 4.8% in either direction by 2026-09-18.
Chain as at 2026-08-26. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.
Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑
Relative Rotation
Repair Attempt
Rotation health 83.6/100; Strong Rotation Tailwind.
| Rotation health | 83.6 |
|---|---|
| Rotation strength | 60.6 |
| Leg | Quadrant | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock vs sector | Weakening | 117.9 | 92.4 |
| Stock vs SPY | Weakening | 119.4 | 94.0 |
| Sector vs SPY | Leading | 118.7 | 107.5 |
Direction of travel: North-West / early recovery
Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.
News Headlines
- Loading headlines\u2026
Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.
Detailed Scoring
Positive signals
- Piotroski F-score 7/9 (+20.0)
- Altman Z-score 46.91 (+10.0)
- Insider conviction score (+18.0)
- Gross margin quality: 96.9% (+22.0)
- ROIC quality: 16.0% (+9.5)
- FCF margin quality: 88.5% (+20.0)
- Gross margin improving by 17.4 pts (+5.0)
- ROIC improving by 13.2 pts (+8.0)
- FCF margin improving by 4.9 pts (+2.0)
- High earnings quality (accrual ratio -0.025) (+2.0)
- Relative Strength 21.3% vs sector: OUTPERFORMING (+10.0)
- Track 1: MACD histogram state (0.63) (+6.0)
- Track 1: relative strength trend improving (+5.0)
- Track 1: 20-day momentum acceleration 0.37 (+12.0)
- Track 1: bullish DI spread 40.5 (+8.0)
- Track 1: ADX 61.4 and rising (+10.0)
- Track 1: relative momentum rank 0.68 (+2.5)
- Track 1: EMA20 slope improving 6.3% (+5.0)
- Track 1: MACD histogram acceleration 0.32 (+4.0)
- Track 1: positive MACD regime (+3.0)
- Track 1: MACD line/signal repair quality (+8.0)
- Track 1: MACD slope improving (+3.0)
- Track 1: VPT strength 0.29 (+5.8)
- Track 1: price above EMA50 by 15.5% (+5.0)
- Track 1: EMA50 slope improving 3.5% (+3.0)
- Track 1: Bollinger position 0.96 (+0.3)
- Regime convergence: ICHIMOKU_CLOUD_REVERSAL confidence 81.4/100 (STRONG) (+16.3)
Negative signals
- Track 1: RSI deterioration/extension 77.9, 5-day change +7.3
- Chase risk 69.1/100 (Exhaustion Risk): RSI 77.9, EMA20 12.1%, EMA50 15.5%, BB 0.96, distribution 11.5/100
- Chase risk 69.1/100 | Extension score 30.9/100 | Exhaustion Risk