PATH
Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · +54.9% · range 9.38–19.29
Score trends appear once the scores have been recorded on more than one trading day.
The Businesswhat the company reports
Business & cash flow
| FCF / assets | 11.1% |
|---|---|
| OCF / assets | 11.7% |
| FCF / revenue | 23.0% |
| Gross margin | 83.0% |
| ROIC | 2.5% |
| Forward P/E | 18.5 |
FCF/assets and OCF/assets are the cash-flow measures Brown Bear's own testing found to survive; FCF/revenue is shown alongside for context. Assets are from the latest annual filing (FY2026).
Price vs Earnings growth
Price has run ahead of forward EPS growth by 3.8pp
Confidence 95.0/100
Drivers
| Forward EPS growth | +51.1% |
|---|---|
| Trailing price return (1y) | +54.9% |
| Forward P/E compression | +33.8% |
Figures
| Trailing EPS | 0.60 |
|---|---|
| Forward EPS | 0.91 |
| Trailing P/E | 27.93 |
| Forward P/E | 18.49 |
Takeaway Price and forward earnings growth are broadly in step; no strong valuation lean either way.
Reported earnings
Revenue Net incomeEPS (GAAP) (-0.15–0.37, own scale) Derived Q4
12 quarters to Q2 26. Revenue and net income share one scale, so the gap between them is the margin. The baseline is zero — bars below it are losses. The line is GAAP EPS — it spans every quarter shown, where the reported figure only goes back as far as the consensus feed does.
| Quarter ending | Revenue | YoY | Net income | EPS (GAAP) | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 418.38m | +17.3% | 22.52m | 0.04 | 2026-06-04 |
| 2026-01-31 (derived) | 481.11m | +13.6% | 104.46m | 0.19 | 2026-03-25 |
| 2025-10-31 | 411.11m | +15.9% | 198.84m | 0.37 | 2025-12-08 |
| 2025-07-31 | 361.73m | +14.4% | 1.58m | 0.00 | 2025-09-08 |
| 2025-04-30 | 356.62m | +6.4% | -22.55m | -0.04 | 2025-06-03 |
| 2025-01-31 (derived) | 423.65m | +4.5% | 51.79m | 0.09 | 2025-03-24 |
| 2024-10-31 | 354.65m | +8.8% | -10.65m | -0.02 | 2024-12-09 |
| 2024-07-31 | 316.25m | +10.1% | -86.10m | -0.15 | 2024-09-06 |
| 2024-04-30 | 335.11m | — | -28.74m | -0.05 | 2024-06-03 |
| 2024-01-31 (derived) | 405.25m | — | 33.92m | 0.06 | 2024-03-27 |
| 2023-10-31 | 325.92m | — | -31.54m | -0.06 | 2023-12-04 |
| 2023-07-31 | 287.31m | — | -60.36m | -0.11 | 2023-09-07 |
Share count
Diluted shares Return since the previous filing
| Direction | Shrinking — shares retired |
|---|---|
| Diluted shares | 527.8M as at 2026-04-30 |
| Change over 1 year | -3.8% |
| Change over 3 years | -5.4% |
| Public float | $4.80bn as at 2025-07-31 (10-K) |
History before 2021-07-31 is not shown. The share count jumps at that date by a ratio no ordinary issuance produces — a split whose factor is not in Brown Bear's split store — so earlier figures are on a different basis and cannot be compared with today's.
The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑
Price Levels
| Strategy | Fair Value Anchor |
|---|---|
| Reference band | 14.34 — 16.84 |
| Protective stop | 14.53 (Structure, 6.8% risk) |
| Support | 14.93 (2 touches, 12.3% away) |
| Resistance | — (— away) |
Takeaway The shares are about 12.3% above 14.93, a price buyers have stepped in at before. There is no ceiling to point to, because the stock is trading where it has not traded before and nobody has sold it at these levels. That floor has held 2 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 6.8% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.
Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.
Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)
| Daily cloud | Price ABOVE the cloud | periods 9/25/50 (95% of classic 9/26/52) |
|---|---|
| Lines | Tenkan/Kijun BULL | cloud twist BULL |
| Cloud thickness | 88% percentile (thick — substantial structure) |
| Chikou span | Above price from 26 periods ago |
| Weekly cloud | Price ABOVE the weekly cloud (context only, not scored) |
Takeaway The stock is trading above its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 13.41 to 15.35. Being above it means the medium-term picture is pointing upwards, and that band is the first place the stock has recent support if it slips back. Its shorter-term averages agree with that. The band is unusually wide at the moment, so it marks a broad zone rather than a single level.
Trailing returns
| 21 days | +37.5% |
|---|---|
| 63 days | +50.2% |
| 126 days | +68.6% |
| 252 days | +51.9% |
| Below 252d high | 13.1% |
Trend context
| Position | Far above trend |
|---|---|
| Extension | Extremely extended |
| Trend slope | Rising strongly |
| Direction of travel | Diverging from trend |
Takeaway Extreme upside extension is still moving away from fair trend; chase risk is elevated.
Volatility
| State | No recent compression |
|---|---|
| Current band width | 36.2% of price |
| Recent tightest | 36.2% (0 sessions ago, narrower than 11.0% of its history) |
| Expansion since | 1.00× |
| Band | 12.45 — 17.95 |
Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 36% wide. That is normal for this stock, so there is nothing unusual to read into it either way.
Repair Pathway
- Nearest Trigger Volume confirmation above 1.2x +0.20x volume confirmation would improve confidence in the pathway · Broadly stable
- Trigger 2 MACD histogram acceleration turns positive repair trigger repair engine identifies this as the nearest technical repair catalyst · Broadly stable
- Trigger 3 MACD slope turns positive secondary repair secondary repair catalyst could add confirmation if the primary trigger develops · Broadly stable
Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑
Insider activity
| Activity | Insider selling |
|---|---|
| Buy filings | 0 |
| Sell filings | 3 |
| Shares sold | 1,452,347 |
| Value sold | $23.4m |
| Latest sell | 2026-08-19 |
| Filed | Insider | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Sold Dines DanielCEO and Chairman | 1,402,347 | $22,539,362 |
| 2026-08-14 | Sold Ramani HiteshChief Accounting Officer | 25,000 | $418,750 |
| 2026-08-13 | Sold Ramani HiteshChief Accounting Officer | 25,000 | $412,500 |
Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.
Volume confirmation
| Volume-price trend | Above its signal line |
|---|---|
| Confirmation | Marginal |
No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.
Takeaway Slightly more shares change hands on rising days than on falling ones, but the gap is too small to read anything into.
Options Positioning
Binary-event risk flagged
PATH: binary-event risk suspected -- Term structure inverted (near 117% IV vs far 72% IV, ratio 1.64); Implied move 14.7% is 1.02x the ATR-expected 14.4% over 9d. Options market is pricing a discrete catalyst; technical breakout signals are unreliable until it resolves.
| Implied volatility | 117% near (9d) · 72% far (86d) — Term structure inverted — the market is pricing an event in the near window |
|---|---|
| Term structure | 1.64× near/far |
| Historical volatility | 57% |
| Implied vs historical | 2.06× — Options are priced well above what the stock has actually done |
| Implied move | ±14.7% by 2026-09-04 — Large relative to this stock's normal daily range |
| Implied move vs ATR | 1.02× |
| Skew | Flat (0.96×) |
| Put wall | 8.00 (-52.3% away) |
| Gamma pin | 8.00 |
- Term structure inverted (near 117% IV vs far 72% IV, ratio 1.64)
- Implied move 14.7% is 1.02x the ATR-expected 14.4% over 9d
Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs more for the next few weeks than for the next few months. Traders usually pay up like that when they know something is coming soon — results, a court ruling, a regulatory decision. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 14.7% in either direction by 2026-09-04. The overall shape suggests they expect a one-off result that lands either well or badly, rather than a gradual drift.
Chain as at 2026-08-26. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.
Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑
Relative Rotation
Sector Headwind / Stock Mixed
Rotation health 42.8/100; Negative Rotation.
| Rotation health | 42.8 |
|---|---|
| Rotation strength | 83.2 |
| Leg | Quadrant | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock vs sector | Weakening | 112.1 | 86.6 |
| Stock vs SPY | Weakening | 110.5 | 84.5 |
| Sector vs SPY | Weakening | 103.8 | 79.2 |
Direction of travel: South-West / deteriorating rotation
Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.
News Headlines
- Loading headlines\u2026
Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.
Detailed Scoring
Positive signals
- Piotroski F-score 6/9 (+21.4)
- Altman Z-score 8.52 (+14.3)
- Insider conviction score (+17.7)
- Gross margin quality: 83.0% (+17.6)
- FCF margin quality: 23.0% (+12.3)
- ROIC improving by 10.4 pts (+6.4)
- High earnings quality (accrual ratio -0.028) (+1.6)
- Relative Strength 31.4% vs sector: OUTPERFORMING (+10.0)
- Track 1: MACD histogram state (0.03) (+3.0)
- Track 1: relative strength trend improving (+5.0)
- Track 1: 20-day momentum acceleration 0.17 (+9.0)
- Track 1: bullish DI spread 23.5 (+5.0)
- Track 1: ADX 45.1 and rising (+10.0)
- Track 1: relative momentum rank 0.87 (+4.6)
- Track 1: Hidden Bullish MACD divergence (+15.0)
- Track 1: EMA20 slope improving 5.7% (+5.0)
- Track 1: positive MACD regime (+3.0)
- Track 1: VPT strength 0.15 (+3.0)
- Track 1: price above EMA50 by 23.2% (+5.0)
- Track 1: EMA50 slope improving 10.6% (+3.0)
- Track 1: Bollinger position 0.78 (+1.7)
Negative signals
- Track 1: RSI deterioration/extension 73.5, 5-day change -0.6
- Chase risk 80.3/100 (Blowoff Distribution Risk): RSI 73.5, EMA20 10.0%, EMA50 23.2%, BB 0.78, distribution 12.6/100
- Chase risk 80.3/100 | Extension score 19.7/100 | Blowoff Distribution Risk