PFG
Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · +47.3% · range 77.24–115.41
The Businesswhat the company reports
Business & cash flow
| OCF / assets | 1.3% |
|---|---|
| FCF / revenue | 29.0% |
| Gross margin | 47.3% |
| ROIC | 0.3% |
| Forward P/E | 11.0 |
This company does not report capital expenditure in the standard filing tag, so free cash flow cannot be derived and FCF/assets is not shown — common for asset managers, REITs, insurers and utilities. OCF/assets is shown instead, and it is the other measure Brown Bear's testing found to survive. Assets are from the latest annual filing (FY2025).
Price vs Earnings growth
Price has run ahead of forward EPS growth by 0.6pp
Confidence 95.0/100
Drivers
| Forward EPS growth | +46.7% |
|---|---|
| Trailing price return (1y) | +47.3% |
| Forward P/E compression | +31.8% |
Figures
| Trailing EPS | 7.07 |
|---|---|
| Forward EPS | 10.37 |
| Trailing P/E | 16.09 |
| Forward P/E | 10.97 |
Revisions
Stable (+0.9%, 10 dates)
Takeaway Price and forward earnings growth are broadly in step; no strong valuation lean either way.
Reported earnings
Revenue Net incomeEPS (GAAP) (-3.56–5.10, own scale) Derived Q4
12 quarters to Q1 26. Revenue and net income share one scale, so the gap between them is the margin. The baseline is zero — bars below it are losses. The line is GAAP EPS — it spans every quarter shown, where the reported figure only goes back as far as the consensus feed does.
| Quarter ending | Revenue | YoY | Net income | EPS (GAAP) | EPS reported | vs consensus | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | 3.53bn | -4.5% | 424.60m | 1.93 | 2.07 | +2.3% | 2026-04-29 |
| 2025-12-31 (derived) | 4.58bn | -3.7% | 517.00m | 2.29 | 2.19 | -2.5% | 2026-02-18 |
| 2025-09-30 | 3.68bn | +22.2% | 213.80m | 0.95 | 2.10 | -5.4% | 2025-10-29 |
| 2025-06-30 | 3.67bn | -14.8% | 406.20m | 1.79 | — | — | 2025-07-30 |
| 2025-03-31 | 3.70bn | -8.8% | 48.10m | 0.21 | — | — | 2025-04-30 |
| 2024-12-31 (derived) | 4.75bn | +76.6% | 905.40m | 3.85 | — | — | 2025-02-19 |
| 2024-09-30 | 3.01bn | -34.5% | -220.00m | -0.95 | — | — | 2024-10-30 |
| 2024-06-30 | 4.31bn | +21.2% | 353.10m | 1.49 | — | — | 2024-07-31 |
| 2024-03-31 | 4.05bn | — | 532.50m | 2.22 | — | — | 2024-05-01 |
| 2023-12-31 (derived) | 2.69bn | — | -871.70m | -3.56 | — | — | 2024-02-20 |
| 2023-09-30 | 4.60bn | — | 1.25bn | 5.10 | — | — | 2023-11-01 |
| 2023-06-30 | 3.56bn | — | 388.80m | 1.58 | — | — | 2023-08-02 |
Earnings response
| Typical move around a filing | ±2.1% |
|---|---|
| On an ordinary two days | ±1.2% — filings move it 1.7× as much |
| Direction | 6 up, 6 down over 12 filings |
Revenue up year on year Revenue down Price move around the filing separate scales — a crossing means nothing
| Quarter ending | Filed | Revenue YoY | Move around filing | Next 20 sessions vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-04-29 | -4.5% | +0.8% | -2.6% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-10-29 | +22.2% | +0.7% | +2.0% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-07-30 | -14.8% | -2.9% | +0.4% |
| 2025-03-31 | 2025-04-30 | -8.8% | -0.7% | -0.4% |
| 2024-09-30 | 2024-10-30 | -34.5% | -2.1% | -0.3% |
| 2024-06-30 | 2024-07-31 | +21.2% | -2.9% | -1.3% |
| 2024-03-31 | 2024-05-01 | +43.8% | +1.7% | -2.5% |
| 2023-09-30 | 2023-11-01 | -0.0% | +4.2% | +0.1% |
| 2023-06-30 | 2023-08-02 | -46.6% | +0.3% | -2.4% |
| 2023-03-31 | 2023-05-03 | -9.4% | -2.8% | -4.4% |
| 2022-09-30 | 2022-11-02 | +34.4% | -2.0% | -2.4% |
| 2022-06-30 | 2022-08-09 | +88.1% | +10.7% | +6.4% |
Share count
Diluted shares Return since the previous filing
| Direction | Shrinking — shares retired |
|---|---|
| Diluted shares | 220.3M as at 2026-03-31 |
| Change over 1 year | -3.7% |
| Change over 3 years | -9.5% |
| Public float | $17.70bn as at 2025-06-30 (10-K) |
The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑
Price Levels
| Strategy | Current Price Reasonable |
|---|---|
| Reference band | 112.06 — 114.91 |
| Protective stop | 109.10 (Structure, 3.9% risk) |
| Support | 110.28 (2 touches, 3.2% away) |
| Resistance | 113.78 (0.0% away) |
Takeaway The shares are nearer the ceiling than the floor: about 0.0% below 113.78, where sellers have turned up before, and 3.2% above 110.28, where buyers have stepped in before. That floor has held 2 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 3.9% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.
Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.
Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)
| Daily cloud | Price ABOVE the cloud | periods 8/22/45 (86% of classic 9/26/52) |
|---|---|
| Lines | Tenkan/Kijun BULL | cloud twist BULL |
| Cloud thickness | 17% percentile (thin — little structure to fight through) |
| Chikou span | Above price from 26 periods ago |
| Weekly cloud | Price ABOVE the weekly cloud (context only, not scored) |
Takeaway The stock is trading above its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 110.64 to 111.92. Being above it means the medium-term picture is pointing upwards, and that band is the first place the stock has recent support if it slips back. Its shorter-term averages agree with that.
Trailing returns
| 21 days | +0.8% |
|---|---|
| 63 days | +12.8% |
| 126 days | +21.5% |
| 252 days | +48.8% |
| Below 252d high | 1.4% |
Trend context
| Position | Above trend |
|---|---|
| Extension | Extremely extended |
| Trend slope | Rising |
| Direction of travel | Holding its deviation |
Takeaway Extreme upside extension above Kalman fair trend; entry risk is elevated.
Volatility
| State | In a squeeze |
|---|---|
| Current band width | 8.4% of price |
| Recent tightest | 7.0% (9 sessions ago, narrower than 85.0% of its history) |
| Expansion since | 1.20× |
| Band | 108.01 — 117.44 |
Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 8% wide, and it recently went unusually quiet — calmer than it has been 85% of the time. When a stock goes quiet like this, its next move tends to look big by comparison. But quiet says nothing about which way it will go: Brown Bear tested calm-before-a-move as a reason to buy, and it did not work.
Historical trends
History begins when the site started recording, not when the company listed, so a short line means a short record and nothing more.
Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑
Insider activity
| Activity | No filings in the window |
|---|---|
| Buy filings | 0 |
| Sell filings | 0 |
Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.
Volume confirmation
| Volume-price trend | Above its signal line |
|---|---|
| Confirmation | Marginal |
No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.
Takeaway Slightly more shares change hands on rising days than on falling ones, but the gap is too small to read anything into.
Options Positioning
Binary-event risk flagged
PFG: binary-event risk suspected -- Term structure inverted (near 32% IV vs far 27% IV, ratio 1.18); Implied move 4.0% is 0.64x the ATR-expected 6.2% over 9d. Options market is pricing a discrete catalyst; technical breakout signals are unreliable until it resolves.
| Implied volatility | 32% near (9d) · 27% far (65d) — Term structure inverted — the market is pricing an event in the near window |
|---|---|
| Term structure | 1.18× near/far |
| Historical volatility | 20% |
| Implied vs historical | 1.58× — Options are priced well above what the stock has actually done |
| Implied move | ±4.0% by 2026-08-21 — Large relative to this stock's normal daily range |
| Implied move vs ATR | 0.64× |
| Skew | Put Skew (2.51×) |
| Put wall | 60.00 (-47.3% away) |
| Gamma pin | 60.00 |
- Term structure inverted (near 32% IV vs far 27% IV, ratio 1.18)
- Implied move 4.0% is 0.64x the ATR-expected 6.2% over 9d
Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs more for the next few weeks than for the next few months. Traders usually pay up like that when they know something is coming soon — results, a court ruling, a regulatory decision. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 4.0% in either direction by 2026-08-21. The overall shape suggests they expect a one-off result that lands either well or badly, rather than a gradual drift.
Chain as at 2026-08-12. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.
Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑
Relative Rotation
Mixed Rotation Phase
Rotation health 54.1/100; Mixed Rotation.
| Rotation health | 54.1 |
|---|---|
| Rotation strength | 75.2 |
| Leg | Quadrant | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock vs sector | Improving | 96.6 | 115.8 |
| Stock vs SPY | Improving | 78.3 | 111.4 |
| Sector vs SPY | Lagging | 76.4 | 91.0 |
Direction of travel: North-East / strengthening leadership
Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.
News Headlines
- Loading headlines\u2026
Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.
Detailed Scoring
Positive signals
- Piotroski F-score 5/9 (+10.0)
- Gross margin quality: 47.3% (+10.0)
- FCF margin quality: 29.0% (+19.4)
- High earnings quality (accrual ratio -0.010) (+2.0)
- Accrual ratio improving (-0.01 -> -0.01) (+5.0)
- Track 1: bullish DI spread 18.1 (+5.0)
- Track 1: ADX 18.7 and rising (+2.0)
- Track 1: relative momentum rank 0.82 (+4.2)
- Track 1: EMA20 reclaim distance 0.7% (+7.4)
- Track 1: EMA20 slope improving 0.5% (+1.2)
- Track 1: RSI recovery 71.3, 5-day change +16.5 (+3.0)
- Track 1: VPT strength 0.05 (+1.0)
- Track 1: price above EMA50 by 3.4% (+2.1)
- Track 1: EMA50 slope improving 1.9% (+3.0)
- Track 1: EMA50 support proximity 3.4% (+2.2)
- Track 1: Bollinger position 0.61 (+3.1)
Negative signals
- Track 1: weak volume confirmation (0.54x average)
- Track 1: MACD histogram deteriorating (-0.37)
- Track 1: weak MACD line/signal structure (-8.0)
- Below-average Altman Z-score (1.14)
- Gross margin improving by -52.7 pts (+-3.0)
- ROIC improving by -0.0 pts (+-5.0)
Chase risk is not elevated for this name, so extension penalties are omitted from the negative signals above.