PLUG
Structural scoring is not meaningful for this business
Structural scoring uses gross margin, free cash flow and Altman Z — measures built for operating companies. For banks, insurers and asset managers they produce artifacts, because the cash-flow statement is dominated by lending and deposit flows rather than operations. Treat the structural and composite figures below as not comparable with other sectors, in either direction.
- Reported free cash flow is far outside the range an operating business can show, indicating balance-sheet rather than operating flows
Some scores are at the bottom of their range
This score sits at the bottom of the 0–100 range. The underlying calculation was negative, so the displayed value is a floor, not a measurement of zero.
- Structural Score: displayed 0, underlying value -14.3
Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · +31.5% · range 1.41–4.14
The Businesswhat the company reports
Business & cash flow
| FCF / assets | -24.9% |
|---|---|
| OCF / assets | -20.7% |
| FCF / revenue | -75.5% |
| Gross margin | -24.7% |
| ROIC | -82.1% |
| Forward P/E | -14.6 |
FCF/assets and OCF/assets are the cash-flow measures Brown Bear's own testing found to survive; FCF/revenue is shown alongside for context. Assets are from the latest annual filing (FY2025).
Price vs Earnings growth
Trailing EPS is negative (-1.26) and forward EPS is not positive, so a growth percentage does not exist
Confidence 35.0/100
Drivers
| Trailing price return (1y) | +31.5% |
|---|
Figures
| Trailing EPS | -1.26 |
|---|---|
| Forward EPS | -0.15 |
| Forward P/E | -14.63 |
Revisions
Stable (-1.8%, 10 dates)
Takeaway Low data confidence (limited analyst coverage) — treat this section as informational only.
Reported earnings
Revenue Net incomeEPS (GAAP) (-1.70–-0.18, own scale) Derived Q4
12 quarters to Q1 26. Revenue and net income share one scale, so the gap between them is the margin. The baseline is zero — bars below it are losses. The line is GAAP EPS — it spans every quarter shown, where the reported figure only goes back as far as the consensus feed does.
| Quarter ending | Revenue | YoY | Net income | EPS (GAAP) | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | 163.51m | +22.3% | -245.30m | -0.18 | 2026-05-11 |
| 2025-12-31 (derived) | 225.22m | +17.6% | -845.97m | -0.74 | 2026-03-02 |
| 2025-09-30 | 177.06m | +1.9% | -361.87m | -0.31 | 2025-11-10 |
| 2025-06-30 | 173.97m | +21.4% | -227.10m | -0.20 | 2025-08-11 |
| 2025-03-31 | 133.67m | +11.2% | -196.66m | -0.21 | 2025-05-12 |
| 2024-12-31 (derived) | 191.47m | -13.8% | -1.34bn | -1.70 | 2025-03-03 |
| 2024-09-30 | 173.73m | -12.6% | -211.17m | -0.25 | 2024-11-12 |
| 2024-06-30 | 143.35m | -44.9% | -262.33m | -0.36 | 2024-08-08 |
| 2024-03-31 | 120.26m | — | -295.78m | -0.46 | 2024-05-09 |
| 2023-12-31 (derived) | 222.16m | — | -642.39m | -1.08 | 2024-02-29 |
| 2023-09-30 | 198.71m | — | -283.48m | -0.47 | 2023-11-09 |
| 2023-06-30 | 260.18m | — | -236.40m | -0.40 | 2023-08-09 |
Share count
Diluted shares Return since the previous filing
| Direction | Growing — shares issued |
|---|---|
| Diluted shares | 1,389.7M as at 2026-03-31 |
| Change over 1 year | +46.9% |
| Change over 3 years | +135.9% |
| Public float | $1.46bn as at 2025-06-30 (10-K) |
History before 2021-03-31 is not shown. The share count jumps at that date by a ratio no ordinary issuance produces — a split whose factor is not in Brown Bear's split store — so earlier figures are on a different basis and cannot be compared with today's.
The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑
Price Levels
| Strategy | Current Price Reasonable |
|---|---|
| Reference band | 2.14 — 2.19 |
| Protective stop | 1.79 (Atr, 17.4% risk) |
| Support | 2.10 (4 touches, 3.5% away) |
| Resistance | 2.21 (1.8% away) |
Takeaway The shares are nearer the ceiling than the floor: about 1.8% below 2.21, where sellers have turned up before, and 3.5% above 2.10, where buyers have stepped in before. That floor has held 4 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 17.4% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.
Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.
Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)
| Daily cloud | Price BELOW the cloud | periods 7/20/39 (76% of classic 9/26/52) |
|---|---|
| Lines | Tenkan/Kijun BULL | cloud twist BEAR |
| Cloud event | Fresh down breakout 0d ago |
| Cloud thickness | 48% percentile |
| Chikou span | Above price from 26 periods ago |
| Weekly cloud | Price BELOW the weekly cloud (context only, not scored) |
Takeaway The stock is trading below its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 2.19 to 2.33. Being below it means the medium-term picture is pointing downwards, and that band is the first hurdle it would have to climb back through. Its shorter-term averages point the other way, so this is a mixed reading rather than a clear one.
Trailing returns
| 21 days | +10.7% |
|---|---|
| 63 days | -47.6% |
| 126 days | +13.6% |
| 252 days | +29.9% |
| Below 252d high | 47.6% |
Trend context
| Position | At trend |
|---|---|
| Extension | Normal |
| Trend slope | Flat |
| Direction of travel | Holding its deviation |
Takeaway The share price is close to the level its own longer-run trend suggests is fair, and that fair level is going sideways. The gap between the two has been fairly steady. Neither is stretched far enough to stand out.
Volatility
| State | In a squeeze |
|---|---|
| Current band width | 15.4% of price |
| Recent tightest | 15.4% (0 sessions ago, narrower than 98.0% of its history) |
| Expansion since | 1.00× |
| Band | 2.02 — 2.36 |
Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 15% wide, and it recently went unusually quiet — calmer than it has been 98% of the time. When a stock goes quiet like this, its next move tends to look big by comparison. But quiet says nothing about which way it will go: Brown Bear tested calm-before-a-move as a reason to buy, and it did not work.
Historical trends
History begins when the site started recording, not when the company listed, so a short line means a short record and nothing more.
Repair Pathway
- Nearest Trigger Relative momentum leadership holds already satisfied Track 2 pathway: relative momentum leadership is already present; maintaining it supports upgrade pressure · Broadly stable
- Trigger 2 Volume confirmation above 1.5x +0.50x volume confirmation would improve confidence in the pathway · Broadly stable
- Trigger 3 MACD histogram acceleration turns positive repair trigger repair engine identifies this as the nearest technical repair catalyst · Broadly stable
- Trigger 4 Reclaim EMA20 secondary repair secondary repair catalyst could add confirmation if the primary trigger develops · Broadly stable
- Trigger 5 Relative strength stabilisation state change relative momentum rank supports RS stabilisation · Broadly stable
Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑
Insider activity
| Activity | No filings in the window |
|---|---|
| Buy filings | 0 |
| Sell filings | 0 |
Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.
Volume confirmation
| Volume-price trend | Below its signal line |
|---|---|
| Confirmation | Marginal |
No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.
Takeaway The heaviest trading has been happening on days when the price falls: when large numbers of shares change hands, the price has tended to go down rather than up. That tells you where the weight of trading has been. It does not tell you what happens next, and it is not a signal to sell.
Options Positioning
Binary-event risk flagged
PLUG: binary-event risk suspected -- Term structure inverted (near 110% IV vs far 90% IV, ratio 1.23); Implied move 13.0% is 0.71x the ATR-expected 18.3% over 8d. Options market is pricing a discrete catalyst; technical breakout signals are unreliable until it resolves.
| Implied volatility | 110% near (8d) · 90% far (113d) — Term structure inverted — the market is pricing an event in the near window |
|---|---|
| Term structure | 1.23× near/far |
| Historical volatility | 57% |
| Implied vs historical | 1.93× — Options are priced well above what the stock has actually done |
| Implied move | ±13.0% by 2026-09-04 — Large relative to this stock's normal daily range |
| Implied move vs ATR | 0.71× |
| Skew | Flat (1.05×) |
| Call wall | 4.00 (+76.2% away) |
| Put wall | 2.00 (-11.9% away) |
| Gamma pin | 2.00 |
- Term structure inverted (near 110% IV vs far 90% IV, ratio 1.23)
- Implied move 13.0% is 0.71x the ATR-expected 18.3% over 8d
Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs more for the next few weeks than for the next few months. Traders usually pay up like that when they know something is coming soon — results, a court ruling, a regulatory decision. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 13.0% in either direction by 2026-09-04. The overall shape suggests they expect a one-off result that lands either well or badly, rather than a gradual drift.
Chain as at 2026-08-27. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.
Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑
Relative Rotation
Repair Attempt
Rotation health 49.3/100; Mixed Rotation.
| Rotation health | 49.3 |
|---|---|
| Rotation strength | 43.5 |
| Leg | Quadrant | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock vs sector | Weakening | 114.8 | 89.2 |
| Stock vs SPY | Weakening | 114.2 | 87.5 |
| Sector vs SPY | Lagging | 81.0 | 94.8 |
Direction of travel: North-West / early recovery
Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.
News Headlines
- Loading headlines\u2026
Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.
Detailed Scoring
Positive signals
- Gross margin improving by 74.6 pts (+2.0)
- FCF margin improving by 40.4 pts (+2.0)
- High earnings quality (accrual ratio -0.422) (+4.0)
- Accrual ratio improving (-0.38 -> -0.42) (+2.0)
- Track 2: MACD line/signal trend quality (+8.7)
- Track 2: MACD slope expanding (+2.9)
- Track 2: volume expansion 1.22x average (+4.8)
- Track 2: 20-day momentum acceleration 0.44 (+30.2)
- Track 2: bullish DI spread 16.5 (+7.6)
- Track 2: ADX 34.4 and rising (+14.3)
- Track 2: relative momentum rank 0.73 (+7.4)
- Track 2: Bollinger position 0.45 (+3.4)
Negative signals
- Track 2: negative MACD regime (-3.7)
- Relative strength versus sector deteriorating
- Track 2: price below EMA20 by 2.1%
- Track 2: RSI deterioration/overheating 54.7, 5-day change -4.6
- Track 2: weak VPT confirmation (-0.00)
- Track 2: price below EMA50 by 8.4%
- Track 2: EMA50 slope deteriorating -2.7%
- Weak Piotroski F-score (2/9)
- Below-average Altman Z-score (-4.73)
- ROIC improving by -9.9 pts (+-1.8)
- Track 2 structural exemption: Z-Score -4.73 below the 1.8 insolvency-risk floor and structural score 0.0/100 below the 25 quality floor; this is an unowned speculative candidate, so the universal SELL gate was skipped and the Track 2 momentum/RRG grid was allowed to evaluate instead. Structural quality here is weak by design for this kind of candidate -- treat any resulting BUY as higher risk than a Track 1 signal.
Chase risk is not elevated for this name, so extension penalties are omitted from the negative signals above.