Q
Daily closes · 1Y (200 sessions) · +49.3% · range 73.54–175.64
The Businesswhat the company reports
Business & cash flow
| FCF / revenue | 26.8% |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 46.2% |
| ROIC | 8.1% |
| Forward P/E | 26.6 |
No annual filing with both total assets and a cash-flow figure is cached for this name, so neither validated measure can be computed. FCF/revenue is shown instead, which is not the validated measure.
Price vs Earnings growth
Forward EPS growth has outpaced trailing price return by +42.8pp
Confidence 95.0/100
Drivers
| Forward EPS growth | +92.1% |
|---|---|
| Trailing price return (1y) | +49.3% |
| Forward P/E compression | +47.9% |
Figures
| Trailing EPS | 2.79 |
|---|---|
| Forward EPS | 5.36 |
| Trailing P/E | 51.00 |
| Forward P/E | 26.55 |
Revisions
Improving (+9.3%, 10 dates)
Takeaway Earnings growth is outpacing price — consistent with the stock not yet fully reflecting its improving forward estimates.
The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑
Price Levels
| Strategy | Current Price Reasonable |
|---|---|
| Reference band | 140.17 — 143.72 |
| Protective stop | 127.03 (Atr, 10.5% risk) |
| Support | 142.04 (2 touches, 0.2% away) |
| Resistance | 146.38 (2.9% away) |
Takeaway The shares are nearer the floor than the ceiling: about 0.2% above 142.04, a price buyers have stepped in at before, and 2.9% below 146.38, where sellers have turned up before. That floor has held 2 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 10.5% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.
Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.
Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)
| Daily cloud | Price INSIDE the cloud | periods 7/19/38 (72% of classic 9/26/52) |
|---|---|
| Lines | Tenkan/Kijun BEAR | cloud twist BEAR |
| Cloud thickness | 91% percentile (thick — substantial structure) |
| Chikou span | Above price from 26 periods ago |
Takeaway The stock is trading inside its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 137.24 to 149.97. Inside the band those averages disagree with each other, so the indicator is not saying much either way. Its shorter-term averages agree with that. The band is unusually wide at the moment, so it marks a broad zone rather than a single level.
Trailing returns
| 21 days | +1.5% |
|---|---|
| 63 days | -12.2% |
| 126 days | +24.3% |
| 252 days | — |
| Below 252d high | 19.0% |
Trend context
| Position | Far above trend |
|---|---|
| Extension | Extremely extended |
| Trend slope | Rising |
| Direction of travel | Diverging from trend |
Takeaway Extreme upside extension is still moving away from fair trend; chase risk is elevated.
Volatility
| State | In a squeeze |
|---|---|
| Current band width | 14.9% of price |
| Recent tightest | 13.6% (3 sessions ago, narrower than 98.0% of its history) |
| Expansion since | 1.09× |
| Band | 125.50 — 145.65 |
Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 15% wide, and it recently went unusually quiet — calmer than it has been 98% of the time. When a stock goes quiet like this, its next move tends to look big by comparison. But quiet says nothing about which way it will go: Brown Bear tested calm-before-a-move as a reason to buy, and it did not work.
Historical trends
History begins when the site started recording, not when the company listed, so a short line means a short record and nothing more.
Repair Pathway
- Nearest Trigger Volume confirmation above 1.2x +0.20x volume confirmation would improve confidence in the pathway · Broadly stable
Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑
Insider activity
| Activity | No filings in the window |
|---|---|
| Buy filings | 0 |
| Sell filings | 0 |
Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.
Volume confirmation
| Volume-price trend | Above its signal line |
|---|---|
| Confirmation | Marginal |
No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.
Takeaway Slightly more shares change hands on rising days than on falling ones, but the gap is too small to read anything into.
Options Positioning
No binary-event flag
Q: no binary-event flag. Near IV 58%, far IV 56% (ratio 1.04), implied move 6.4%.
| Implied volatility | 58% near (7d) · 56% far (63d) |
|---|---|
| Term structure | 1.04× near/far |
| Historical volatility | 51% |
| Implied vs historical | 1.14× |
| Implied move | ±6.4% by 2026-08-21 |
| Implied move vs ATR | 0.58× |
| Skew | Flat (1.03×) |
| Call wall | 170.00 (+19.5% away) |
| Put wall | 100.00 (-29.7% away) |
| Gamma pin | 170.00 |
Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs less for the next few weeks than for the next few months, which is the normal state of affairs and suggests no particular date is worrying anyone. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 6.4% in either direction by 2026-08-21.
Chain as at 2026-08-14. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.
Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑
Relative Rotation
Stock Leadership Confirmed
Rotation health 100.0/100; Strong Rotation Tailwind.
| Rotation health | 100.0 |
|---|---|
| Rotation strength | 81.3 |
| Leg | Quadrant | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock vs sector | Leading | 122.7 | 125.6 |
| Stock vs SPY | Leading | 120.8 | 124.3 |
| Sector vs SPY | Leading | 118.5 | 114.7 |
Direction of travel: North-East / strengthening leadership
Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.
News Headlines
- Loading headlines\u2026
Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.
Detailed Scoring
Positive signals
- Piotroski F-score 5/9 (+10.0)
- Altman Z-score 3.28 (+5.0)
- Insider conviction score (+3.0)
- Gross margin quality: 46.2% (+9.6)
- ROIC quality: 8.1% (+2.6)
- FCF margin quality: 26.8% (+17.9)
- FCF margin improving by 2.3 pts (+2.0)
- High earnings quality (accrual ratio -0.041) (+2.0)
- Accrual ratio improving (-0.03 -> -0.04) (+5.0)
- Track 1: MACD histogram state (1.74) (+8.0)
- Track 1: relative strength trend improving (+5.0)
- Track 1: 20-day momentum acceleration 0.16 (+9.0)
- Track 1: bullish DI spread 5.2 (+1.0)
- Track 1: relative momentum rank 0.66 (+2.3)
- Track 1: EMA20 reclaim distance 3.0% (+5.6)
- Track 1: EMA20 slope improving 1.0% (+2.4)
- Track 1: MACD histogram acceleration 0.96 (+7.0)
- Track 1: MACD line/signal repair quality (+8.0)
- Track 1: MACD slope improving (+5.0)
- Track 1: RSI recovery 56.6, 5-day change +9.7 (+5.4)
- Track 1: VPT strength 0.05 (+1.0)
- Track 1: price above EMA50 by 0.9% (+0.6)
- Track 1: EMA50 support proximity 0.9% (+4.2)
- Track 1: constructive pullback zone (+15.0)
- Track 1: Bollinger position 0.83 (+1.3)
Negative signals
- Track 1: weak volume confirmation (0.35x average)
- Track 1: EMA50 slope deteriorating -1.1%
Chase risk is not elevated for this name, so extension penalties are omitted from the negative signals above.