RIO

Rio Tinto ·Materials
104.78 live · 2026-08-27 14:56
53.9%
Brown Bear Score
20.3%
Business Conviction Score
72.6%
Position Health Score
39.4%
Chase Risk
Daily closes

Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · +69.0% · range 61.87–112.04

Score trends appear once the scores have been recorded on more than one trading day.

The Businesswhat the company reports

Business & cash flow

FCF / revenue
Gross margin 0.0%
ROIC 0.0%
Forward P/E 12.1

No annual filing with both total assets and a cash-flow figure is cached for this name, so neither validated measure can be computed. FCF/revenue is shown instead, which is not the validated measure.

Price vs Earnings growth

Price has run ahead of forward EPS growth by 49.4pp

Confidence 95.0/100

Takeaway Price has moved further than forward earnings growth currently justifies — worth weighing against the rest of the entry case.

The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑

Price Levels

StrategyFair Value Anchor
Reference band 99.50 — 105.22
Protective stop 98.02 (Atr, 4.2% risk)
Support 98.00 (2 touches, 6.8% away)
Resistance 107.37 (2.5% away)

Takeaway The shares are nearer the ceiling than the floor: about 2.5% below 107.37, where sellers have turned up before, and 6.8% above 98.00, where buyers have stepped in before. That floor has held 2 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 4.2% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.

Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.

Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)

Daily cloudPrice ABOVE the cloud | periods 8/23/46 (88% of classic 9/26/52)
LinesTenkan/Kijun BULL | cloud twist BULL
Cloud eventFresh up breakout 5d ago
Cloud thickness48% percentile
Chikou spanAbove price from 26 periods ago
Weekly cloudPrice ABOVE the weekly cloud (context only, not scored)

Takeaway The stock is trading above its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 96.78 to 100.30. Being above it means the medium-term picture is pointing upwards, and that band is the first place the stock has recent support if it slips back. Its shorter-term averages agree with that.

Trailing returns

21 days +14.3%
63 days -1.8%
126 days +3.9%
252 days +68.0%
Below 252d high6.6%

Trend context

PositionAbove trend
ExtensionExtremely extended
Trend slopeRising
Direction of travelDiverging from trend

Takeaway Extreme upside extension is still moving away from fair trend; chase risk is elevated.

Volatility

State No recent compression
Current band width13.2% of price
Recent tightest13.2% (0 sessions ago, narrower than 65.0% of its history)
Expansion since1.00×
Band 93.75 — 106.98

Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 13% wide. That is normal for this stock, so there is nothing unusual to read into it either way.

Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑

Insider activity

ActivityNo filings in the window
Buy filings0
Sell filings0

Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.

Volume confirmation

Volume-price trend Above its signal line
Confirmation Moderate

No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.

Takeaway More shares change hands on the days this stock rises than on the days it falls. That is what you would expect to see if the rise is being driven by real buying rather than drifting up on a thin market.

Options Positioning

no listed options chain

Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑

Relative Rotation

ImprovingLeadingLaggingWeakeningvs sectorvs SPYsector vs SPYRS-Ratio →RS-Momentum →

Repair Attempt

Rotation health 82.0/100; Strong Rotation Tailwind.

Rotation health 82.0
Rotation strength 61.3
LegQuadrantRS-RatioRS-Mom
Stock vs sector Weakening 112.7 93.1
Stock vs SPY Weakening 116.1 96.2
Sector vs SPY Leading 118.7 107.5

Direction of travel: North-West / early recovery

Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.

News Headlines

  1. Loading headlines\u2026

Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.

Detailed Scoring

Positive signals

  • Piotroski F-score 5/9 (+5.0)
  • Altman Z-score 3.00 (+3.0)
  • High earnings quality (accrual ratio 0.000) (+1.0)
  • Track 2: MACD histogram state (0.68) (+4.6)
  • Track 2: MACD line/signal trend quality (+8.7)
  • Track 2: positive MACD trend regime (+5.8)
  • Track 2: MACD slope expanding (+2.9)
  • Track 2: relative strength trend improving (+9.5)
  • Track 2: 20-day momentum acceleration 0.13 (+18.1)
  • Track 2: bullish DI spread 18.9 (+7.6)
  • Track 2: ADX 38.3 and flat (+11.4)
  • Track 2: relative momentum rank 0.91 (+13.1)
  • Track 2: price above EMA20 by 4.3% (+2.1)
  • Track 2: EMA20 slope expanding 3.0% (+4.6)
  • Track 2: MACD histogram acceleration 0.65 (+2.3)
  • Track 2: RSI trend quality 60.4, 5-day change +3.5 (+2.7)
  • Track 2: VPT strength 0.17 (+3.9)
  • Track 2: price above EMA50 by 6.4% (+3.0)
  • Track 2: EMA50 slope improving 1.6% (+2.3)
  • Track 2: Bollinger position 0.83 (+6.3)
  • Regime convergence: ICHIMOKU_CLOUD_REVERSAL confidence 74.0/100 (EMERGING) (+14.8)

Negative signals

  • Track 2: weak volume for momentum setup (0.75x average)
  • Track 2: Bearish MACD divergence
  • FCF margin unavailable: revenue missing from fundamentals cache
  • Track 2 structural exemption: structural score 9.0/100 below the 25 quality floor; this is an unowned speculative candidate, so the universal SELL gate was skipped and the Track 2 momentum/RRG grid was allowed to evaluate instead. Structural quality here is weak by design for this kind of candidate -- treat any resulting BUY as higher risk than a Track 1 signal.

Chase risk is not elevated for this name, so extension penalties are omitted from the negative signals above.