RIVN
Some scores are at the bottom of their range
This score sits at the bottom of the 0–100 range. The underlying calculation was negative, so the displayed value is a floor, not a measurement of zero.
- Structural Score: displayed 0, underlying value -0.5
Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · +23.6% · range 12.50–22.45
The Businesswhat the company reports
Business & cash flow
| FCF / assets | -16.7% |
|---|---|
| OCF / assets | -5.2% |
| FCF / revenue | -14.5% |
| Gross margin | 1.0% |
| ROIC | -30.0% |
| Forward P/E | -9.1 |
FCF/assets and OCF/assets are the cash-flow measures Brown Bear's own testing found to survive; FCF/revenue is shown alongside for context. Assets are from the latest annual filing (FY2025).
Price vs Earnings growth
Trailing EPS is negative (-2.53) and forward EPS is not positive, so a growth percentage does not exist
Confidence 35.0/100
Drivers
| Trailing price return (1y) | +23.6% |
|---|
Figures
| Trailing EPS | -2.53 |
|---|---|
| Forward EPS | -1.79 |
| Forward P/E | -9.14 |
Takeaway Low data confidence (limited analyst coverage) — treat this section as informational only.
Reported earnings
Revenue Net incomeEPS (GAAP) (-1.61–-0.33, own scale) Derived Q4
12 quarters to Q1 26. Revenue and net income share one scale, so the gap between them is the margin. The baseline is zero — bars below it are losses. The line is GAAP EPS — it spans every quarter shown, where the reported figure only goes back as far as the consensus feed does.
| Quarter ending | Revenue | YoY | Net income | EPS (GAAP) | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | 1.38bn | +11.4% | -416.00m | -0.33 | 2026-04-30 |
| 2025-12-31 (derived) | 1.29bn | -25.8% | -811.00m | -0.68 | 2026-02-12 |
| 2025-09-30 | 1.56bn | +78.3% | -1.17bn | -0.96 | 2025-11-04 |
| 2025-06-30 | 1.30bn | +12.5% | -1.12bn | -0.97 | 2025-08-05 |
| 2025-03-31 | 1.24bn | +3.0% | -545.00m | -0.48 | 2025-05-06 |
| 2024-12-31 (derived) | 1.73bn | +31.9% | -744.00m | -0.73 | 2025-02-24 |
| 2024-09-30 | 874.00m | -34.6% | -1.10bn | -1.08 | 2024-11-07 |
| 2024-06-30 | 1.16bn | +3.3% | -1.46bn | -1.46 | 2024-08-06 |
| 2024-03-31 | 1.20bn | — | -1.45bn | -1.48 | 2024-05-07 |
| 2023-12-31 (derived) | 1.31bn | — | -1.52bn | -1.61 | 2024-02-26 |
| 2023-09-30 | 1.34bn | — | -1.37bn | -1.44 | 2023-11-07 |
| 2023-06-30 | 1.12bn | — | -1.20bn | -1.27 | 2023-08-08 |
Share count
Diluted shares Return since the previous filing
| Direction | Growing — shares issued |
|---|---|
| Diluted shares | 1,249.0M as at 2026-03-31 |
| Change over 1 year | +9.9% |
| Change over 3 years | +34.3% |
| Public float | $14.30bn as at 2025-06-30 (10-K) |
History before 2022-03-31 is not shown. The share count jumps at that date by a ratio no ordinary issuance produces — a split whose factor is not in Brown Bear's split store — so earlier figures are on a different basis and cannot be compared with today's.
The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑
Price Levels
| Strategy | Fair Value Anchor |
|---|---|
| Reference band | 15.86 — 16.41 |
| Protective stop | 14.88 (Structure, 7.8% risk) |
| Support | 15.20 (2 touches, 7.4% away) |
| Resistance | 16.60 (1.6% away) |
Takeaway The shares are nearer the ceiling than the floor: about 1.6% below 16.60, where sellers have turned up before, and 7.4% above 15.20, where buyers have stepped in before. That floor has held 2 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 7.8% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.
Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.
Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)
| Daily cloud | Price INSIDE the cloud | periods 9/25/51 (98% of classic 9/26/52) |
|---|---|
| Lines | Tenkan/Kijun BULL | cloud twist BEAR |
| Cloud thickness | 81% percentile (thick — substantial structure) |
| Chikou span | Not clear of price from 26 periods ago |
| Weekly cloud | Price INSIDE the weekly cloud (context only, not scored) |
Takeaway The stock is trading inside its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 16.25 to 17.27. Inside the band those averages disagree with each other, so the indicator is not saying much either way. Its shorter-term averages point the other way, so this is a mixed reading rather than a clear one. The band is unusually wide at the moment, so it marks a broad zone rather than a single level.
Trailing returns
| 21 days | -2.2% |
|---|---|
| 63 days | +11.1% |
| 126 days | +7.1% |
| 252 days | +24.6% |
| Below 252d high | 27.3% |
Trend context
| Position | At trend |
|---|---|
| Extension | Normal |
| Trend slope | Rising |
| Direction of travel | Holding its deviation |
Takeaway Price is near a rising Kalman fair trend, consistent with a healthy trend setup.
Volatility
| State | In a squeeze |
|---|---|
| Current band width | 16.0% of price |
| Recent tightest | 14.4% (4 sessions ago, narrower than 86.0% of its history) |
| Expansion since | 1.11× |
| Band | 14.63 — 17.17 |
Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 16% wide, and it recently went unusually quiet — calmer than it has been 86% of the time. When a stock goes quiet like this, its next move tends to look big by comparison. But quiet says nothing about which way it will go: Brown Bear tested calm-before-a-move as a reason to buy, and it did not work.
Historical trends
History begins when the site started recording, not when the company listed, so a short line means a short record and nothing more.
Repair Pathway
- Nearest Trigger EMA20 continuation hold already above Track 2 pathway: price is above a rising EMA20; sustained hold would support momentum continuation · Broadly stable
- Trigger 2 Relative momentum leadership holds already satisfied Track 2 pathway: relative momentum leadership is already present; maintaining it supports upgrade pressure · Broadly stable
- Trigger 3 Volume confirmation above 1.5x +0.50x volume confirmation would improve confidence in the pathway · Deteriorating
Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑
Insider activity
| Activity | Insider selling |
|---|---|
| Buy filings | 0 |
| Sell filings | 3 |
| Shares sold | 41,167 |
| Value sold | $719.0k |
| Latest sell | 2026-08-20 |
| Filed | Insider | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Sold McDonough ClaireChief Financial Officer | 8,023 | $128,368 |
| 2026-08-18 | Sold McDonough ClaireChief Financial Officer | 13,144 | $190,650 |
| 2026-07-06 | Sold Boone KarenDirector | 20,000 | $400,000 |
Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.
Volume confirmation
| Volume-price trend | Above its signal line |
|---|---|
| Confirmation | Marginal |
No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.
Takeaway Slightly more shares change hands on rising days than on falling ones, but the gap is too small to read anything into.
Options Positioning
No binary-event flag
RIVN: no binary-event flag. Near IV 56%, far IV 63% (ratio 0.87), implied move 6.6%.
| Implied volatility | 56% near (8d) · 63% far (113d) |
|---|---|
| Term structure | 0.88× near/far |
| Historical volatility | 58% |
| Implied vs historical | 0.96× |
| Implied move | ±6.6% by 2026-09-04 |
| Implied move vs ATR | 0.62× |
| Skew | Flat (0.95×) |
| Call wall | 20.00 (+19.3% away) |
| Put wall | 5.00 (-70.2% away) |
| Gamma pin | 20.00 |
Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs less for the next few weeks than for the next few months, which is the normal state of affairs and suggests no particular date is worrying anyone. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 6.6% in either direction by 2026-09-04.
Chain as at 2026-08-27. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.
Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑
Relative Rotation
Leadership Cooling
Rotation health 81.5/100; Strong Rotation Tailwind.
| Rotation health | 81.5 |
|---|---|
| Rotation strength | 65.1 |
| Leg | Quadrant | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock vs sector | Leading | 101.3 | 115.0 |
| Stock vs SPY | Leading | 104.4 | 116.0 |
| Sector vs SPY | Weakening | 110.8 | 88.9 |
Direction of travel: East / relative trend strengthening
Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.
News Headlines
- Loading headlines\u2026
Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.
Detailed Scoring
Positive signals
- Insider conviction score (+6.0)
- Gross margin improving by 25.2 pts (+2.0)
- FCF margin improving by 20.1 pts (+2.0)
- High earnings quality (accrual ratio -0.193) (+3.0)
- Track 2: MACD histogram state (0.14) (+2.9)
- Track 2: MACD line/signal trend quality (+10.5)
- Track 2: MACD slope expanding (+2.9)
- Track 2: relative strength trend improving (+9.5)
- Track 2: 20-day momentum acceleration 0.06 (+6.0)
- Track 2: bullish DI spread 9.8 (+2.9)
- Track 2: relative momentum rank 0.67 (+5.5)
- Track 2: Bullish MACD divergence (+2.3)
- Track 2: price above EMA20 by 1.2% (+0.6)
- Track 2: EMA20 slope expanding 1.6% (+2.5)
- Track 2: RSI trend quality 58.3, 5-day change +17.3 (+11.4)
- Track 2: VPT strength 0.00 (+0.1)
- Track 2: price above EMA50 by 0.8% (+0.3)
- Track 2: constructive pullback within uptrend (+10)
- Track 2: Bollinger position 0.67 (+5.1)
Negative signals
- Underperforming sector over 20 days
- Track 2: negative MACD regime (-3.7)
- Track 2: weak volume for momentum setup (0.85x average)
- Track 2: weak/falling ADX (28.1, falling)
- Track 2: EMA50 slope deteriorating -0.7%
- Below-average Altman Z-score (-1.32)
- Track 2 structural exemption: Z-Score -1.32 below the 1.8 insolvency-risk floor and structural score 0.0/100 below the 25 quality floor; this is an unowned speculative candidate, so the universal SELL gate was skipped and the Track 2 momentum/RRG grid was allowed to evaluate instead. Structural quality here is weak by design for this kind of candidate -- treat any resulting BUY as higher risk than a Track 1 signal.
Chase risk is not elevated for this name, so extension penalties are omitted from the negative signals above.