RJF
Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · +7.6% · range 140.89–181.18
The Businesswhat the company reports
Business & cash flow
| FCF / assets | 2.5% |
|---|---|
| OCF / assets | 2.8% |
| FCF / revenue | 17.6% |
| Gross margin | 93.2% |
| ROIC | 2.4% |
| Forward P/E | 12.8 |
FCF/assets and OCF/assets are the cash-flow measures Brown Bear's own testing found to survive; FCF/revenue is shown alongside for context. Assets are from the latest annual filing (FY2025).
Price vs Earnings growth
Forward EPS growth has outpaced trailing price return by +15.3pp
Confidence 95.0/100
Drivers
| Forward EPS growth | +22.9% |
|---|---|
| Trailing price return (1y) | +7.6% |
| Forward P/E compression | +19.1% |
Figures
| Trailing EPS | 11.54 |
|---|---|
| Forward EPS | 14.18 |
| Trailing P/E | 15.80 |
| Forward P/E | 12.78 |
Revisions
Stable (+0.5%, 9 prior obs)
Takeaway Earnings growth is outpacing price — consistent with the stock not yet fully reflecting its improving forward estimates.
Reported earnings
Revenue Net incomeEPS (GAAP) (1.72–2.92, own scale) Derived Q4
12 quarters to Q1 26. Revenue and net income share one scale, so the gap between them is the margin. The line is GAAP EPS — it spans every quarter shown, where the reported figure only goes back as far as the consensus feed does.
| Quarter ending | Revenue | YoY | Net income | EPS (GAAP) | EPS reported | vs consensus | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | 4.26bn | +10.8% | 544.00m | 2.73 | 2.83 | +1.0% | 2026-05-06 |
| 2025-12-31 | 4.18bn | +3.5% | 563.00m | 2.80 | 2.86 | -1.6% | 2026-02-06 |
| 2025-09-30 (derived) | 4.19bn | +4.7% | 604.00m | 2.92 | 3.11 | +9.1% | 2025-11-25 |
| 2025-06-30 | 3.84bn | +2.1% | 436.00m | 2.12 | — | — | 2025-08-06 |
| 2025-03-31 | 3.85bn | +5.7% | 495.00m | 2.37 | — | — | 2025-05-07 |
| 2024-12-31 | 4.04bn | +14.6% | 600.00m | 2.87 | — | — | 2025-02-07 |
| 2024-09-30 (derived) | 4.00bn | +13.9% | 602.00m | 2.84 | — | — | 2024-11-26 |
| 2024-06-30 | 3.76bn | +14.2% | 492.00m | 2.32 | — | — | 2024-08-06 |
| 2024-03-31 | 3.64bn | — | 476.00m | 2.23 | — | — | 2024-05-07 |
| 2023-12-31 | 3.52bn | — | 498.00m | 2.33 | — | — | 2024-02-07 |
| 2023-09-30 (derived) | 3.52bn | — | 434.00m | 2.00 | — | — | 2023-11-21 |
| 2023-06-30 | 3.29bn | — | 369.00m | 1.72 | — | — | 2023-08-04 |
Earnings response
| Typical move around a filing | ±1.7% |
|---|---|
| On an ordinary two days | ±1.4% — filings move it 1.2× as much |
| Direction | 7 up, 5 down over 12 filings |
Revenue up year on year Revenue down Price move around the filing separate scales — a crossing means nothing
| Quarter ending | Filed | Revenue YoY | Move around filing | Next 20 sessions vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-06 | +10.8% | -3.4% | -2.2% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-06 | +3.5% | +3.7% | -12.0% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-08-06 | +2.1% | -2.2% | -0.8% |
| 2025-03-31 | 2025-05-07 | +5.7% | +3.1% | -5.2% |
| 2024-12-31 | 2025-02-07 | +14.6% | -3.6% | -5.9% |
| 2024-06-30 | 2024-08-06 | +14.2% | +0.8% | +3.6% |
| 2024-03-31 | 2024-05-07 | +15.2% | -0.1% | -7.5% |
| 2023-12-31 | 2024-02-07 | +16.3% | +0.7% | +4.5% |
| 2023-06-30 | 2023-08-04 | +18.5% | -0.6% | -2.1% |
| 2023-03-31 | 2023-05-08 | +16.5% | +0.2% | +8.4% |
| 2022-12-31 | 2023-02-03 | +7.4% | +3.2% | -3.2% |
| 2022-06-30 | 2022-08-08 | +10.6% | +1.3% | +5.3% |
Share count
Diluted shares Return since the previous filing
| Direction | Shrinking — shares retired |
|---|---|
| Diluted shares | 199.2M as at 2026-03-31 |
| Change over 1 year | -4.6% |
| Change over 3 years | -9.1% |
| Public float | $28.11bn as at 2025-03-31 (10-K) |
The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑
Price Levels
| Strategy | Current Price Reasonable |
|---|---|
| Reference band | 178.46 — 182.99 |
| Protective stop | 172.02 (Atr, 4.8% risk) |
| Support | 165.14 (6 touches, 9.7% away) |
| Resistance | — (— away) |
Takeaway The shares are about 9.7% above 165.14, a price buyers have stepped in at before. There is no ceiling to point to, because the stock is trading where it has not traded before and nobody has sold it at these levels. That floor has held 6 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 4.8% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.
Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.
Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)
| Daily cloud | Price ABOVE the cloud | periods 9/26/52 (100% of classic 9/26/52) |
|---|---|
| Lines | Tenkan/Kijun BULL | cloud twist BULL |
| Cloud thickness | 100% percentile (thick — substantial structure) |
| Chikou span | Above price from 26 periods ago |
| Weekly cloud | Price ABOVE the weekly cloud (context only, not scored) |
Takeaway The stock is trading above its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 162.22 to 175.26. Being above it means the medium-term picture is pointing upwards, and that band is the first place the stock has recent support if it slips back. Its shorter-term averages agree with that. The band is unusually wide at the moment, so it marks a broad zone rather than a single level.
Trailing returns
| 21 days | +8.2% |
|---|---|
| 63 days | +18.0% |
| 126 days | +14.3% |
| 252 days | +9.9% |
| Below 252d high | 0.0% |
Trend context
| Position | Above trend |
|---|---|
| Extension | Extremely extended |
| Trend slope | Rising |
| Direction of travel | Holding its deviation |
Takeaway Extreme upside extension above Kalman fair trend; entry risk is elevated.
Volatility
| State | In a squeeze |
|---|---|
| Current band width | 11.5% of price |
| Recent tightest | 8.2% (8 sessions ago, narrower than 83.0% of its history) |
| Expansion since | 1.40× |
| Band | 164.30 — 184.36 |
Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 12% wide, and it recently went unusually quiet — calmer than it has been 83% of the time. When a stock goes quiet like this, its next move tends to look big by comparison. But quiet says nothing about which way it will go: Brown Bear tested calm-before-a-move as a reason to buy, and it did not work.
Historical trends
History begins when the site started recording, not when the company listed, so a short line means a short record and nothing more.
Repair Pathway
- Nearest Trigger Relative momentum rank above 0.55 +0.06 rank relative momentum leadership is not yet strong enough for the next action tier · Broadly stable
- Trigger 2 Volume confirmation above 1.2x +0.20x volume confirmation would improve confidence in the pathway · Broadly stable
- Trigger 3 MACD histogram acceleration turns positive repair trigger repair engine identifies this as the nearest technical repair catalyst · Broadly stable
- Trigger 4 Positive 20-day momentum acceleration secondary repair secondary repair catalyst could add confirmation if the primary trigger develops · Broadly stable
Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑
Insider activity
| Activity | No filings in the window |
|---|---|
| Buy filings | 0 |
| Sell filings | 0 |
Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.
Volume confirmation
| Volume-price trend | Above its signal line |
|---|---|
| Confirmation | Moderate |
No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.
Takeaway More shares change hands on the days this stock rises than on the days it falls. That is what you would expect to see if the rise is being driven by real buying rather than drifting up on a thin market.
Options Positioning
Binary-event risk flagged
RJF: binary-event risk suspected -- Term structure inverted (near 36% IV vs far 25% IV, ratio 1.46); Implied move 4.5% is 0.79x the ATR-expected 5.8% over 9d. Options market is pricing a discrete catalyst; technical breakout signals are unreliable until it resolves.
| Implied volatility | 36% near (9d) · 25% far (100d) — Term structure inverted — the market is pricing an event in the near window |
|---|---|
| Term structure | 1.46× near/far |
| Historical volatility | 18% |
| Implied vs historical | 1.96× — Options are priced well above what the stock has actually done |
| Implied move | ±4.5% by 2026-08-21 — Large relative to this stock's normal daily range |
| Implied move vs ATR | 0.79× |
| Skew | Put Skew (1.16×) |
| Put wall | 95.00 (-47.6% away) |
| Gamma pin | 95.00 |
- Term structure inverted (near 36% IV vs far 25% IV, ratio 1.46)
- Implied move 4.5% is 0.79x the ATR-expected 5.8% over 9d
Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs more for the next few weeks than for the next few months. Traders usually pay up like that when they know something is coming soon — results, a court ruling, a regulatory decision. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 4.5% in either direction by 2026-08-21. The overall shape suggests they expect a one-off result that lands either well or badly, rather than a gradual drift.
Chain as at 2026-08-12. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.
Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑
Relative Rotation
Mixed Rotation Phase
Rotation health 48.0/100; Mixed Rotation.
| Rotation health | 48.0 |
|---|---|
| Rotation strength | 82.1 |
| Leg | Quadrant | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock vs sector | Leading | 111.2 | 120.6 |
| Stock vs SPY | Lagging | 85.2 | 82.2 |
| Sector vs SPY | Lagging | 76.4 | 91.0 |
Direction of travel: North / momentum improving
Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.
News Headlines
- Loading headlines\u2026
Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.
Detailed Scoring
Positive signals
- Piotroski F-score 4/9 (+5.0)
- Insider conviction score (+5.0)
- Gross margin quality: 93.2% (+22.0)
- FCF margin quality: 17.6% (+11.7)
- High earnings quality (accrual ratio -0.003) (+2.0)
- Accrual ratio improving (-0.00 -> -0.00) (+5.0)
- Track 1: MACD histogram state (0.02) (+3.0)
- Track 1: relative strength trend improving (+5.0)
- Track 1: bullish DI spread 21.0 (+5.0)
- Track 1: ADX 28.3 and flat (+3.0)
- Track 1: relative momentum rank 0.49 (+0.4)
- Track 1: EMA20 reclaim distance 3.7% (+5.0)
- Track 1: EMA20 slope improving 1.8% (+4.5)
- Track 1: positive MACD regime (+3.0)
- Track 1: VPT strength 0.28 (+5.6)
- Track 1: price above EMA50 by 8.4% (+5.0)
- Track 1: EMA50 slope improving 3.5% (+3.0)
- Track 1: Bollinger position 0.84 (+1.3)
Negative signals
- Track 1: negative 20-day momentum acceleration (-0.04)
- Track 1: MACD histogram deteriorating (-0.48)
- Track 1: RSI deterioration/extension 75.9, 5-day change +3.4
- Below-average Altman Z-score (1.84)
- Gross margin improving by -6.8 pts (+-3.0)
- ROIC improving by -0.1 pts (+-5.0)
Chase risk is not elevated for this name, so extension penalties are omitted from the negative signals above.