ROKU

Roku ·Communication Services
157.22 live · 2026-08-27 15:00
42.3%
Brown Bear Score
18.9%
Business Conviction Score
60.5%
Position Health Score
55.9%
Chase Risk
Daily closes

Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · +66.0% · range 82.93–159.76

Score trends appear once the scores have been recorded on more than one trading day.

The Businesswhat the company reports

Business & cash flow

FCF / revenue
Gross margin 0.0%
ROIC 0.0%
Forward P/E 40.4

No annual filing with both total assets and a cash-flow figure is cached for this name, so neither validated measure can be computed. FCF/revenue is shown instead, which is not the validated measure.

Price vs Earnings growth

Forward EPS growth has outpaced trailing price return by +1.0pp

Confidence 95.0/100

Takeaway Price and forward earnings growth are broadly in step; no strong valuation lean either way.

The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑

Price Levels

StrategyFair Value Anchor
Reference band 153.18 — 159.39
Protective stop 151.77 (Atr, 2.9% risk)
Support 119.54 (2 touches, 32.7% away)
Resistance (— away)

Takeaway The shares are about 32.7% above 119.54, a price buyers have stepped in at before. There is no ceiling to point to, because the stock is trading where it has not traded before and nobody has sold it at these levels. That floor has held 2 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 2.9% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.

Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.

Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)

Daily cloudPrice ABOVE the cloud | periods 8/24/49 (94% of classic 9/26/52)
LinesTenkan/Kijun BULL | cloud twist BULL
Cloud thickness55% percentile
Chikou spanAbove price from 26 periods ago
Weekly cloudPrice ABOVE the weekly cloud (context only, not scored)

Takeaway The stock is trading above its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 147.12 to 156.26. Being above it means the medium-term picture is pointing upwards, and that band is the first place the stock has recent support if it slips back. Its shorter-term averages agree with that.

Trailing returns

21 days +10.2%
63 days +20.2%
126 days +71.9%
252 days +68.7%
Below 252d high0.7%

Trend context

PositionFar above trend
ExtensionExtremely extended
Trend slopeRising strongly
Direction of travelDiverging from trend

Takeaway Extreme upside extension is still moving away from fair trend; chase risk is elevated.

Volatility

State No recent compression
Current band width13.3% of price
Recent tightest10.6% (9 sessions ago, narrower than 73.0% of its history)
Expansion since1.25×
Band 143.02 — 163.35

Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 13% wide. That is normal for this stock, so there is nothing unusual to read into it either way.

Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑

Insider activity

ActivityInsider selling
Buy filings0
Sell filings7
Shares sold38,809
Value sold$5.8m
Latest sell2026-08-17
FiledInsiderSharesValue
2026-08-17 Sold Jedda DanCFO & COO 7,000 $1,099,770
2026-08-06 Sold Fuchsberg GilbertPresident, Subscriptions 10,719 $1,607,850

Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.

Volume confirmation

Volume-price trend Above its signal line
Confirmation Marginal

No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.

Takeaway Slightly more shares change hands on rising days than on falling ones, but the gap is too small to read anything into.

Options Positioning

No binary-event flag

ROKU: no binary-event flag. Near IV 18%, far IV 21% (ratio 0.87), implied move 2.1%.

Implied volatility 18% near (8d) · 21% far (113d)
Term structure 0.87× near/far
Historical volatility 16%
Implied vs historical 1.12×
Implied move ±2.1% by 2026-09-04
Implied move vs ATR 0.67×
Skew Put Skew (3.68×)
Call wall 175.00 (+11.3% away)
Put wall 100.00 (-36.4% away)
Gamma pin 100.00

Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs less for the next few weeks than for the next few months, which is the normal state of affairs and suggests no particular date is worrying anyone. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 2.1% in either direction by 2026-09-04.

Chain as at 2026-08-27. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.

Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑

Relative Rotation

ImprovingLeadingLaggingWeakeningvs sectorvs SPYsector vs SPYRS-Ratio →RS-Momentum →

Leadership Cooling

Rotation health 80.0/100; Strong Rotation Tailwind.

Rotation health 80.0
Rotation strength 75.6
LegQuadrantRS-RatioRS-Mom
Stock vs sector Weakening 101.7 99.3
Stock vs SPY Leading 115.5 111.8
Sector vs SPY Leading 128.0 120.4

Direction of travel: South-East / trend strong but momentum cooling

Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.

News Headlines

  1. Loading headlines\u2026

Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.

Detailed Scoring

Positive signals

  • Piotroski F-score 5/9 (+5.0)
  • Altman Z-score 3.00 (+3.0)
  • High earnings quality (accrual ratio 0.000) (+1.0)
  • Track 2: MACD line/signal trend quality (+5.8)
  • Track 2: positive MACD trend regime (+5.8)
  • Track 2: volume expansion 1.07x average (+1.7)
  • Track 2: relative strength trend improving (+9.5)
  • Track 2: 20-day momentum acceleration 0.04 (+6.0)
  • Track 2: bullish DI spread 41.4 (+14.3)
  • Track 2: ADX 75.1 and rising (+17.2)
  • Track 2: relative momentum rank 0.91 (+13.2)
  • Track 2: price above EMA20 by 3.2% (+1.5)
  • Track 2: EMA20 slope expanding 2.0% (+3.1)
  • Track 2: VPT strength 0.01 (+0.2)
  • Track 2: price above EMA50 by 8.9% (+4.2)
  • Track 2: EMA50 slope improving 4.3% (+3.5)
  • Track 2: Bollinger position 0.77 (+5.8)

Negative signals

  • Track 2: MACD histogram deteriorating (-0.48)
  • Track 2: RSI deterioration/overheating 73.3, 5-day change -5.9
  • Chase risk 55.9/100 (Elevated Chase Risk): RSI 73.3, EMA20 3.2%, EMA50 8.9%, BB 0.77, distribution 9.9/100
  • FCF margin unavailable: revenue missing from fundamentals cache
  • Track 2 structural exemption: structural score 9.0/100 below the 25 quality floor; this is an unowned speculative candidate, so the universal SELL gate was skipped and the Track 2 momentum/RRG grid was allowed to evaluate instead. Structural quality here is weak by design for this kind of candidate -- treat any resulting BUY as higher risk than a Track 1 signal.
  • Chase risk 55.9/100 | Extension score 44.1/100 | Elevated Chase Risk