RUN
Some scores are at the bottom of their range
This score sits at the bottom of the 0–100 range. The underlying calculation was negative, so the displayed value is a floor, not a measurement of zero.
- Tactical Score: displayed 0, underlying value -59.9
Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · -45.0% · range 8.92–21.41
The Businesswhat the company reports
Business & cash flow
| OCF / assets | -1.9% |
|---|---|
| FCF / revenue | -14.3% |
| Gross margin | 32.1% |
| ROIC | -0.8% |
| Forward P/E | 8.2 |
This company does not report capital expenditure in the standard filing tag, so free cash flow cannot be derived and FCF/assets is not shown — common for asset managers, REITs, insurers and utilities. OCF/assets is shown instead, and it is the other measure Brown Bear's testing found to survive. Assets are from the latest annual filing (FY2025).
Price vs Earnings growth
Forward EPS growth has outpaced trailing price return by +21.1pp
Confidence 95.0/100
Drivers
| Forward EPS growth | -24.0% |
|---|---|
| Trailing price return (1y) | -45.0% |
| Forward P/E compression | -31.5% |
Figures
| Trailing EPS | 1.46 |
|---|---|
| Forward EPS | 1.11 |
| Trailing P/E | 6.25 |
| Forward P/E | 8.22 |
Takeaway Earnings growth is outpacing price — consistent with the stock not yet fully reflecting its improving forward estimates.
Reported earnings
Revenue Net incomeEPS (GAAP) (-12.66–1.07, own scale) Derived Q4
12 quarters to Q1 26. Revenue and net income share one scale, so the gap between them is the margin. The baseline is zero — bars below it are losses. The line is GAAP EPS — it spans every quarter shown, where the reported figure only goes back as far as the consensus feed does.
| Quarter ending | Revenue | YoY | Net income | EPS (GAAP) | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | 722.23m | +43.2% | 167.64m | 0.62 | 2026-05-06 |
| 2025-12-31 (derived) | 1.16bn | +123.5% | 103.57m | 0.39 | 2026-02-26 |
| 2025-09-30 | 724.56m | +34.9% | 16.59m | 0.06 | 2025-11-06 |
| 2025-06-30 | 569.34m | +8.7% | 279.77m | 1.07 | 2025-08-06 |
| 2025-03-31 | 504.27m | +10.1% | 50.01m | 0.19 | 2025-05-07 |
| 2024-12-31 (derived) | 518.49m | +0.4% | -2.81bn | -12.66 | 2025-02-27 |
| 2024-09-30 | 537.17m | -4.6% | -83.77m | -0.37 | 2024-11-07 |
| 2024-06-30 | 523.87m | -11.2% | 139.07m | 0.55 | 2024-08-06 |
| 2024-03-31 | 458.19m | — | -87.82m | -0.40 | 2024-05-08 |
| 2023-12-31 (derived) | 516.59m | — | -350.12m | -1.62 | 2024-02-21 |
| 2023-09-30 | 563.18m | — | -1.07bn | -4.92 | 2023-11-01 |
| 2023-06-30 | 590.19m | — | 55.47m | 0.25 | 2023-08-02 |
Share count
Diluted shares Return since the previous filing
| Direction | Growing — shares issued |
|---|---|
| Diluted shares | 272.3M as at 2026-03-31 |
| Change over 1 year | +5.6% |
| Change over 3 years | +26.9% |
| Public float | $1.80bn as at 2025-06-30 (10-K) |
History before 2021-03-31 is not shown. The share count jumps at that date by a ratio no ordinary issuance produces — a split whose factor is not in Brown Bear's split store — so earlier figures are on a different basis and cannot be compared with today's.
The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑
Price Levels
| Strategy | Current Price Reasonable |
|---|---|
| Reference band | 8.99 — 9.22 |
| Protective stop | 7.91 (Atr, 13.1% risk) |
| Support | — (0 touches, — away) |
| Resistance | 13.31 (45.8% away) |
Takeaway The shares are about 45.8% below 13.31, where sellers have turned up before. There is no floor to point to in the recent record. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 13.1% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.
Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.
Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)
| Daily cloud | Price BELOW the cloud | periods 9/25/50 (96% of classic 9/26/52) |
|---|---|
| Lines | Tenkan/Kijun BEAR | cloud twist BEAR |
| Cloud thickness | 99% percentile (thick — substantial structure) |
| Chikou span | Not clear of price from 26 periods ago |
| Weekly cloud | Price BELOW the weekly cloud (context only, not scored) |
Takeaway The stock is trading below its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 9.92 to 12.70. Being below it means the medium-term picture is pointing downwards, and that band is the first hurdle it would have to climb back through. Its shorter-term averages agree with that. The band is unusually wide at the moment, so it marks a broad zone rather than a single level.
Trailing returns
| 21 days | -5.2% |
|---|---|
| 63 days | -39.9% |
| 126 days | -53.3% |
| 252 days | -44.3% |
| Below 252d high | 57.4% |
Trend context
| Position | Below trend |
|---|---|
| Extension | Oversold |
| Trend slope | Falling sharply |
| Direction of travel | Diverging from trend |
Takeaway Kalman fair trend is falling sharply; downside trend risk remains elevated.
Volatility
| State | In a squeeze |
|---|---|
| Current band width | 22.0% of price |
| Recent tightest | 17.0% (5 sessions ago, narrower than 95.0% of its history) |
| Expansion since | 1.29× |
| Band | 8.69 — 10.84 |
Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 22% wide, and it recently went unusually quiet — calmer than it has been 95% of the time. When a stock goes quiet like this, its next move tends to look big by comparison. But quiet says nothing about which way it will go: Brown Bear tested calm-before-a-move as a reason to buy, and it did not work.
Historical trends
History begins when the site started recording, not when the company listed, so a short line means a short record and nothing more.
Repair Pathway
- Nearest Trigger Relative momentum rank back above 0.45 repair trigger repair engine identifies this as the nearest technical repair catalyst · Broadly stable
- Trigger 2 VPT back above signal secondary repair secondary repair catalyst could add confirmation if the primary trigger develops · Improving
- Trigger 3 Volume confirmation above 1.5x +0.50x volume confirmation would improve confidence in the pathway · Broadly stable
- Trigger 4 RSI recovery above 50 +2.8 pts gap is deteriorating · Improving
- Trigger 5 Bollinger recovery toward mid-band +0.25 band position price remains in the lower Bollinger zone; recovery toward mid-band would support repair · Broadly stable
Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑
Insider activity
| Activity | Insider selling |
|---|---|
| Buy filings | 0 |
| Sell filings | 8 |
| Shares sold | 171,015 |
| Value sold | $2.1m |
| Latest sell | 2026-08-03 |
| Filed | Insider | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | Sold Jurich Lynn MichelleDirector | 50,000 | $498,115 |
| 2026-07-09 | Sold Barak MariaChief Accounting Officer | 3,278 | $39,893 |
| 2026-07-06 | Sold STEELE JEANNAChief Legal & People Officer | 9,897 | $130,517 |
| 2026-07-06 | Sold Powell MaryChief Executive Officer | 23,985 | $316,285 |
| 2026-07-06 | Sold Dickson Paul S.Pres. & Chief Revenue Officer | 15,613 | $205,851 |
| 2026-07-06 | Sold Barak MariaChief Accounting Officer | 1,747 | $23,013 |
Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.
Volume confirmation
| Volume-price trend | Below its signal line |
|---|---|
| Confirmation | Moderate |
No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.
Takeaway The heaviest trading has been happening on days when the price falls: when large numbers of shares change hands, the price has tended to go down rather than up. That tells you where the weight of trading has been. It does not tell you what happens next, and it is not a signal to sell.
Options Positioning
No binary-event flag
RUN: no binary-event flag. Near IV 59%, far IV 75% (ratio 0.78), implied move 6.9%.
| Implied volatility | 59% near (8d) · 75% far (85d) |
|---|---|
| Term structure | 0.78× near/far |
| Historical volatility | 77% |
| Implied vs historical | 0.76× |
| Implied move | ±6.9% by 2026-09-04 |
| Implied move vs ATR | 0.49× |
| Skew | Call Skew (0.90×) |
| Call wall | 14.00 (+55.6% away) |
| Put wall | 6.00 (-33.3% away) |
| Gamma pin | 14.00 |
Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs less for the next few weeks than for the next few months, which is the normal state of affairs and suggests no particular date is worrying anyone. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 6.9% in either direction by 2026-09-04.
Chain as at 2026-08-27. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.
Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑
Relative Rotation
Leadership Cooling
Rotation health 58.9/100; Mixed Rotation.
| Rotation health | 58.9 |
|---|---|
| Rotation strength | 59.7 |
| Leg | Quadrant | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock vs sector | Weakening | 113.9 | 98.7 |
| Stock vs SPY | Leading | 111.4 | 102.2 |
| Sector vs SPY | Lagging | 81.0 | 94.8 |
Direction of travel: South-East / trend strong but momentum cooling
Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.
News Headlines
- Loading headlines\u2026
Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.
Detailed Scoring
Positive signals
- Piotroski F-score 4/9 (+3.0)
- Insider conviction score (+5.0)
- Gross margin quality: 32.1% (+1.2)
- Gross margin improving by 15.9 pts (+2.0)
- ROIC improving by 18.2 pts (+3.0)
- FCF margin improving by 23.4 pts (+2.0)
- High earnings quality (accrual ratio 0.039) (+1.0)
- Track 2: MACD line/signal trend quality (+5.8)
- Track 2: 20-day momentum acceleration 0.26 (+30.2)
- Track 2: Bollinger position 0.20 (+1.5)
Negative signals
- Underperforming sector over 20 days
- Track 2: negative MACD regime (-3.7)
- Track 2: weak volume for momentum setup (0.57x average)
- Relative strength versus sector deteriorating
- Track 2: bearish DI spread (-5.7)
- Track 2: weak/falling ADX (26.6, falling)
- Weak relative momentum rank (0.02)
- Track 2: Hidden Bearish MACD divergence
- Track 2: price below EMA20 by 6.9%
- Track 2: EMA20 slope deteriorating -4.2%
- Track 2: RSI deterioration/overheating 47.2, 5-day change -4.9
- Track 2: weak VPT confirmation (-0.17)
- Track 2: price below EMA50 by 16.4%
- Track 2: EMA50 slope deteriorating -6.3%
- Below-average Altman Z-score (0.03)
- Track 2 structural exemption: Z-Score 0.03 below the 1.8 insolvency-risk floor and structural score 3.7/100 below the 25 quality floor; this is an unowned speculative candidate, so the universal SELL gate was skipped and the Track 2 momentum/RRG grid was allowed to evaluate instead. Structural quality here is weak by design for this kind of candidate -- treat any resulting BUY as higher risk than a Track 1 signal.
Chase risk is not elevated for this name, so extension penalties are omitted from the negative signals above.