SAP
Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · -21.6% · range 146.38–280.46
Score trends appear once the scores have been recorded on more than one trading day.
The Businesswhat the company reports
Business & cash flow
| FCF / revenue | — |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 0.0% |
| ROIC | 0.0% |
| Forward P/E | 22.0 |
No annual filing with both total assets and a cash-flow figure is cached for this name, so neither validated measure can be computed. FCF/revenue is shown instead, which is not the validated measure.
Price vs Earnings growth
Forward EPS growth has outpaced trailing price return by +47.9pp
Confidence 95.0/100
Drivers
| Forward EPS growth | +26.3% |
|---|---|
| Trailing price return (1y) | -21.6% |
| Forward P/E compression | +20.8% |
Figures
| Trailing EPS | 7.62 |
|---|---|
| Forward EPS | 9.63 |
| Trailing P/E | 27.78 |
| Forward P/E | 21.99 |
Takeaway Earnings growth is outpacing price — consistent with the stock not yet fully reflecting its improving forward estimates.
The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑
Price Levels
| Strategy | Current Price Reasonable |
|---|---|
| Reference band | 208.50 — 213.80 |
| Protective stop | 199.43 (Atr, 5.5% risk) |
| Support | 200.10 (3 touches, 5.8% away) |
| Resistance | 212.95 (0.6% away) |
Takeaway The shares are nearer the ceiling than the floor: about 0.6% below 212.95, where sellers have turned up before, and 5.8% above 200.10, where buyers have stepped in before. That floor has held 3 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 5.5% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.
Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.
Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)
| Daily cloud | Price ABOVE the cloud | periods 9/26/51 (98% of classic 9/26/52) |
|---|---|
| Lines | Tenkan/Kijun BULL | cloud twist BULL |
| Cloud thickness | 90% percentile (thick — substantial structure) |
| Chikou span | Above price from 26 periods ago |
| Weekly cloud | Price ABOVE the weekly cloud (context only, not scored) |
Takeaway The stock is trading above its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 182.62 to 209.58. Being above it means the medium-term picture is pointing upwards, and that band is the first place the stock has recent support if it slips back. Its shorter-term averages agree with that. The band is unusually wide at the moment, so it marks a broad zone rather than a single level.
Trailing returns
| 21 days | +18.1% |
|---|---|
| 63 days | +21.6% |
| 126 days | +6.8% |
| 252 days | -21.7% |
| Below 252d high | 24.5% |
Trend context
| Position | At trend |
|---|---|
| Extension | Normal |
| Trend slope | Flat |
| Direction of travel | Holding its deviation |
Takeaway The share price is close to the level its own longer-run trend suggests is fair, and that fair level is going sideways. The gap between the two has been fairly steady. Neither is stretched far enough to stand out.
Volatility
| State | No recent compression |
|---|---|
| Current band width | 21.8% of price |
| Recent tightest | 21.8% (0 sessions ago, narrower than 35.0% of its history) |
| Expansion since | 1.00× |
| Band | 183.12 — 227.80 |
Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 22% wide. That is normal for this stock, so there is nothing unusual to read into it either way.
Repair Pathway
- Nearest Trigger EMA20 continuation hold already above Track 2 pathway: price is above a rising EMA20; sustained hold would support momentum continuation · Broadly stable
- Trigger 2 MACD bullish crossover repair trigger repair engine identifies this as the nearest technical repair catalyst · Broadly stable
- Trigger 3 Relative momentum rank back above 0.45 secondary repair secondary repair catalyst could add confirmation if the primary trigger develops · Broadly stable
- Trigger 4 Volume confirmation above 1.5x +0.50x volume confirmation would improve confidence in the pathway · Improving
- Trigger 5 MACD histogram above zero 0.42 gap is deteriorating · Broadly stable
Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑
Insider activity
| Activity | No filings in the window |
|---|---|
| Buy filings | 0 |
| Sell filings | 0 |
Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.
Volume confirmation
| Volume-price trend | Above its signal line |
|---|---|
| Confirmation | Moderate |
No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.
Takeaway More shares change hands on the days this stock rises than on the days it falls. That is what you would expect to see if the rise is being driven by real buying rather than drifting up on a thin market.
Options Positioning
No binary-event flag
SAP: no binary-event flag. Near IV 37%, far IV 40% (ratio 0.95), implied move 4.4%.
| Implied volatility | 37% near (8d) · 40% far (113d) |
|---|---|
| Term structure | 0.95× near/far |
| Historical volatility | 29% |
| Implied vs historical | 1.27× |
| Implied move | ±4.4% by 2026-09-04 |
| Implied move vs ATR | 0.71× |
| Skew | Put Skew (2.11×) |
| Call wall | 240.00 (+8.5% away) |
| Put wall | 190.00 (-14.1% away) |
| Gamma pin | 185.00 |
Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs less for the next few weeks than for the next few months, which is the normal state of affairs and suggests no particular date is worrying anyone. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 4.4% in either direction by 2026-09-04.
Chain as at 2026-08-27. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.
Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑
Relative Rotation
Repair Attempt
Rotation health 53.8/100; Mixed Rotation.
| Rotation health | 53.8 |
|---|---|
| Rotation strength | 60.3 |
| Leg | Quadrant | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock vs sector | Weakening | 107.8 | 94.1 |
| Stock vs SPY | Weakening | 107.3 | 92.6 |
| Sector vs SPY | Weakening | 103.8 | 79.2 |
Direction of travel: North-West / early recovery
Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.
News Headlines
- Loading headlines\u2026
Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.
Detailed Scoring
Positive signals
- Piotroski F-score 5/9 (+5.0)
- Altman Z-score 3.00 (+3.0)
- High earnings quality (accrual ratio 0.000) (+1.0)
- Relative Strength 13.0% vs sector: OUTPERFORMING (+9.5)
- Track 2: volume expansion 1.08x average (+1.7)
- Track 2: relative strength trend improving (+9.5)
- Track 2: bullish DI spread 20.6 (+11.4)
- Track 2: ADX 69.0 and rising (+17.2)
- Track 2: Hidden Bullish MACD divergence (+7.0)
- Track 2: price above EMA20 by 3.8% (+1.9)
- Track 2: EMA20 slope expanding 4.1% (+4.6)
- Track 2: VPT strength 0.22 (+5.1)
- Track 2: price above EMA50 by 12.2% (+5.7)
- Track 2: EMA50 slope improving 7.0% (+3.5)
- Track 2: Bollinger position 0.64 (+4.9)
Negative signals
- Track 2: weak MACD histogram (-0.42)
- Track 2: weak MACD line/signal structure (-7.0)
- Track 2: negative 20-day momentum acceleration (-0.07)
- Weak relative momentum rank (0.11)
- Track 2: MACD histogram deteriorating (-1.60)
- Track 2: RSI deterioration/overheating 65.2, 5-day change -20.5
- FCF margin unavailable: revenue missing from fundamentals cache
- Track 2 structural exemption: structural score 9.0/100 below the 25 quality floor; this is an unowned speculative candidate, so the universal SELL gate was skipped and the Track 2 momentum/RRG grid was allowed to evaluate instead. Structural quality here is weak by design for this kind of candidate -- treat any resulting BUY as higher risk than a Track 1 signal.
Chase risk is not elevated for this name, so extension penalties are omitted from the negative signals above.