SJM
Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · +6.7% · range 89.53–126.35
The Businesswhat the company reports
Business & cash flow
| FCF / assets | 7.1% |
|---|---|
| OCF / assets | 9.1% |
| FCF / revenue | 16.3% |
| Gross margin | 34.3% |
| ROIC | 2.3% |
| Forward P/E | 11.2 |
FCF/assets and OCF/assets are the cash-flow measures Brown Bear's own testing found to survive; FCF/revenue is shown alongside for context. Assets are from the latest annual filing (FY2026).
Price vs Earnings growth
Trailing EPS is negative (-1.31), so a growth percentage does not exist — forward EPS of 10.75 implies a swing from loss to profit
Confidence 35.0/100
Drivers
| Trailing price return (1y) | +6.7% |
|---|
Figures
| Trailing EPS | -1.31 |
|---|---|
| Forward EPS | 10.75 |
| Forward P/E | 11.22 |
Revisions
Stable (+0.5%, 10 dates)
Takeaway Low data confidence (limited analyst coverage) — treat this section as informational only.
Share count
Diluted shares Return since the previous filing
| Direction | Shrinking — shares retired |
|---|---|
| Diluted shares | 106.8M as at 2022-07-31 |
| Change over 1 year | -5.9% |
| Change over 3 years | -7.9% |
| Public float | $10.59bn as at 2025-10-31 (10-K) |
The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑
Price Levels
| Strategy | Fair Value Anchor |
|---|---|
| Reference band | 111.33 — 121.23 |
| Protective stop | 110.14 (Structure, 5.3% risk) |
| Support | 111.69 (2 touches, 8.0% away) |
| Resistance | — (— away) |
Takeaway The shares are about 8.0% above 111.69, a price buyers have stepped in at before. There is no ceiling to point to, because the stock is trading where it has not traded before and nobody has sold it at these levels. That floor has held 2 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 5.3% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.
Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.
Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)
| Daily cloud | Price ABOVE the cloud | periods 6/18/37 (70% of classic 9/26/52) |
|---|---|
| Lines | Tenkan/Kijun BULL | cloud twist BEAR |
| Cloud event | Fresh up breakout 1d ago |
| Cloud thickness | 7% percentile (thin — little structure to fight through) |
| Chikou span | Above price from 26 periods ago |
| Weekly cloud | Price ABOVE the weekly cloud (context only, not scored) |
Takeaway The stock is trading above its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 117.08 to 117.55. Being above it means the medium-term picture is pointing upwards, and that band is the first place the stock has recent support if it slips back. Its shorter-term averages agree with that.
Trailing returns
| 21 days | +10.6% |
|---|---|
| 63 days | +19.6% |
| 126 days | +8.6% |
| 252 days | +8.3% |
| Below 252d high | 4.5% |
Trend context
| Position | Above trend |
|---|---|
| Extension | Extremely extended |
| Trend slope | Rising |
| Direction of travel | Diverging from trend |
Takeaway Extreme upside extension is still moving away from fair trend; chase risk is elevated.
Volatility
| State | No recent compression |
|---|---|
| Current band width | 11.1% of price |
| Recent tightest | 11.1% (0 sessions ago, narrower than 48.0% of its history) |
| Expansion since | 1.00× |
| Band | 112.10 — 125.30 |
Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 11% wide. That is normal for this stock, so there is nothing unusual to read into it either way.
Historical trends
History begins when the site started recording, not when the company listed, so a short line means a short record and nothing more.
Repair Pathway
- Nearest Trigger MACD bullish crossover repair trigger repair engine identifies this as the nearest technical repair catalyst · Broadly stable
- Trigger 2 EMA20 continuation hold already above Track 2 pathway: price is above a rising EMA20; sustained hold would support momentum continuation · Broadly stable
- Trigger 3 MACD histogram above zero secondary repair secondary repair catalyst could add confirmation if the primary trigger develops · Broadly stable
- Trigger 4 Volume confirmation above 1.5x +0.50x volume confirmation would improve confidence in the pathway · Broadly stable
- Trigger 5 Relative momentum rank above 0.65 +0.19 rank relative momentum leadership is not yet strong enough for the next action tier · Broadly stable
Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑
Insider activity
| Activity | No filings in the window |
|---|---|
| Buy filings | 0 |
| Sell filings | 0 |
Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.
Volume confirmation
| Volume-price trend | Above its signal line |
|---|---|
| Confirmation | Marginal |
No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.
Takeaway Slightly more shares change hands on rising days than on falling ones, but the gap is too small to read anything into.
Options Positioning
No binary-event flag
SJM: no binary-event flag. Near IV 24%, far IV 32% (ratio 0.74), implied move 2.8%.
| Implied volatility | 24% near (8d) · 32% far (64d) |
|---|---|
| Term structure | 0.74× near/far |
| Historical volatility | 30% |
| Implied vs historical | 0.80× |
| Implied move | ±2.8% by 2026-08-21 |
| Implied move vs ATR | 0.39× |
| Skew | Flat (1.10×) |
| Call wall | 125.00 (+3.6% away) |
| Put wall | 110.00 (-8.8% away) |
| Gamma pin | 120.00 |
Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs less for the next few weeks than for the next few months, which is the normal state of affairs and suggests no particular date is worrying anyone. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 2.8% in either direction by 2026-08-21.
Chain as at 2026-08-13. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.
Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑
Relative Rotation
Stock Rotation Headwind
Rotation health 11.6/100; Severe Rotation Headwind.
| Rotation health | 11.6 |
|---|---|
| Rotation strength | 87.3 |
| Leg | Quadrant | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock vs sector | Lagging | 95.2 | 83.5 |
| Stock vs SPY | Lagging | 89.4 | 82.9 |
| Sector vs SPY | Lagging | 85.3 | 88.0 |
Direction of travel: South-West / deteriorating rotation
Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.
News Headlines
- Loading headlines\u2026
Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.
Detailed Scoring
Positive signals
- Piotroski F-score 4/9 (+3.0)
- Insider conviction score (+3.0)
- Gross margin quality: 34.3% (+1.4)
- FCF margin quality: 16.3% (+4.9)
- ROIC improving by 6.7 pts (+2.0)
- High earnings quality (accrual ratio -0.099) (+2.0)
- Relative Strength 6.7% vs sector: OUTPERFORMING (+10.0)
- Track 2: relative strength trend improving (+10.0)
- Track 2: 20-day momentum acceleration 0.08 (+8.0)
- Track 2: bullish DI spread 3.0 (+3.0)
- Track 2: ADX 34.8 and falling (+8.0)
- Track 2: price above EMA20 by 2.2% (+1.8)
- Track 2: EMA20 slope expanding 0.5% (+1.4)
- Track 2: VPT strength 0.04 (+0.9)
- Track 2: price above EMA50 by 5.7% (+4.5)
- Track 2: EMA50 slope improving 2.1% (+5.0)
- Track 2: Bollinger position 0.65 (+5.2)
Negative signals
- Track 2: weak MACD histogram (-0.36)
- Track 2: weak MACD line/signal structure (-12.0)
- Track 2: MACD slope deteriorating (-5.0)
- Track 2: weak volume for momentum setup (0.70x average)
- Weak relative momentum rank (0.46)
- Track 2: RSI deterioration/overheating 54.4, 5-day change -7.0
- Below-average Altman Z-score (1.27)
- Gross margin improving by -4.5 pts (+-1.0)
- Track 2 structural exemption: Z-Score 1.27 below the 1.8 insolvency-risk floor and structural score 0.3/100 below the 25 quality floor; this is an unowned speculative candidate, so the universal SELL gate was skipped and the Track 2 momentum/RRG grid was allowed to evaluate instead. Structural quality here is weak by design for this kind of candidate -- treat any resulting BUY as higher risk than a Track 1 signal.
Chase risk is not elevated for this name, so extension penalties are omitted from the negative signals above.