SMCI
Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · -19.0% · range 20.53–58.68
The Businesswhat the company reports
Business & cash flow
| FCF / assets | 10.9% |
|---|---|
| OCF / assets | 11.8% |
| FCF / revenue | 7.6% |
| Gross margin | 8.4% |
| ROIC | 10.9% |
| Forward P/E | 9.2 |
FCF/assets and OCF/assets are the cash-flow measures Brown Bear's own testing found to survive; FCF/revenue is shown alongside for context. Assets are from the latest annual filing (FY2025).
Price vs Earnings growth
Forward EPS growth has outpaced trailing price return by +99.3pp
Confidence 95.0/100
Drivers
| Forward EPS growth | +80.3% |
|---|---|
| Trailing price return (1y) | -19.0% |
| Forward P/E compression | +44.5% |
Figures
| Trailing EPS | 2.26 |
|---|---|
| Forward EPS | 4.08 |
| Trailing P/E | 16.64 |
| Forward P/E | 9.23 |
Revisions
Strongly Improving (+23.1%, 10 dates)
Takeaway Earnings growth is outpacing price — consistent with the stock not yet fully reflecting its improving forward estimates.
Reported earnings
Revenue Net incomeEPS (GAAP) (0.17–0.70, own scale) Derived Q4
12 quarters to Q1 26. Revenue and net income share one scale, so the gap between them is the margin. The line is GAAP EPS — it spans every quarter shown, where the reported figure only goes back as far as the consensus feed does.
| Quarter ending | Revenue | YoY | Net income | EPS (GAAP) | EPS reported | vs consensus | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | 10.24bn | +122.7% | 483.39m | 0.70 | 0.84 | +32.3% | 2026-05-11 |
| 2025-12-31 | 12.68bn | +123.4% | 400.56m | 0.58 | 0.69 | +38.7% | 2026-02-06 |
| 2025-09-30 | 5.02bn | -15.5% | 168.28m | 0.25 | 0.35 | -14.9% | 2025-11-07 |
| 2025-06-30 (derived) | 5.76bn | +7.5% | 195.15m | 0.31 | — | — | 2025-08-28 |
| 2025-03-31 | 4.60bn | +19.5% | 108.78m | 0.17 | — | — | 2025-05-12 |
| 2024-12-31 | 5.68bn | +54.9% | 320.60m | 0.50 | — | — | 2025-02-25 |
| 2024-09-30 | 5.94bn | +180.1% | 424.33m | 0.66 | — | — | 2025-02-25 |
| 2024-06-30 (derived) | 5.35bn | +145.1% | 297.24m | 0.49 | — | — | 2025-02-25 |
| 2024-03-31 | 3.85bn | — | 402.46m | 0.66 | — | — | 2024-05-06 |
| 2023-12-31 | 3.66bn | — | 295.97m | 0.51 | — | — | 2024-02-02 |
| 2023-09-30 | 2.12bn | — | 157.00m | 0.27 | — | — | 2023-11-03 |
| 2023-06-30 (derived) | 2.18bn | — | 193.57m | 0.35 | — | — | 2023-08-28 |
Earnings response
| Typical move around a filing | ±3.0% |
|---|---|
| On an ordinary two days | ±4.2% — filings move it 0.7× as much |
| Direction | 7 up, 5 down over 12 filings |
Revenue up year on year Revenue down Price move around the filing separate scales — a crossing means nothing
| Quarter ending | Filed | Revenue YoY | Move around filing | Next 20 sessions vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-11 | +122.7% | -7.3% | -9.0% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-06 | +123.4% | +8.7% | -2.8% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-07 | -15.5% | -0.4% | -13.1% |
| 2025-03-31 | 2025-05-12 | +19.5% | +21.6% | +8.6% |
| 2024-12-31 | 2025-02-25 | +54.9% | -1.0% | -23.5% |
| 2024-09-30 | 2025-02-25 | +180.1% | -1.0% | -23.5% |
| 2024-03-31 | 2024-05-06 | +200.0% | +4.7% | -5.4% |
| 2023-12-31 | 2024-02-02 | +103.2% | +13.7% | +61.5% |
| 2023-09-30 | 2023-11-03 | +14.4% | +2.7% | -0.7% |
| 2023-03-31 | 2023-05-05 | -5.3% | +0.2% | +66.9% |
| 2022-12-31 | 2023-02-03 | +53.8% | +1.6% | +21.2% |
| 2022-09-30 | 2022-11-04 | +79.3% | -3.2% | +8.2% |
Share count
Diluted shares Return since the previous filing
| Direction | Growing — shares issued |
|---|---|
| Diluted shares | 692.2M as at 2026-03-31 |
| Change over 1 year | +11.3% |
| Change over 3 years | +23.1% |
| Public float | $15.53bn as at 2024-12-31 (10-K) |
Counts are restated for the 10:1 split of 2024-10-01, which would otherwise read as a share issuance.
The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑
Price Levels
| Strategy | Fair Value Anchor |
|---|---|
| Reference band | 31.43 — 37.80 |
| Protective stop | 29.46 (Atr, 14.9% risk) |
| Support | 30.26 (2 touches, 24.3% away) |
| Resistance | — (— away) |
Takeaway The shares are about 24.3% above 30.26, a price buyers have stepped in at before. There is no ceiling to point to, because the stock is trading where it has not traded before and nobody has sold it at these levels. That floor has held 2 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 14.9% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.
Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.
Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)
| Daily cloud | Price ABOVE the cloud | periods 7/21/42 (80% of classic 9/26/52) |
|---|---|
| Lines | Tenkan/Kijun BEAR | cloud twist BULL (fresh up, 2d ago) |
| Cloud event | Fresh up breakout 2d ago |
| Cloud thickness | 24% percentile (thin — little structure to fight through) |
| Chikou span | Above price from 26 periods ago |
| Weekly cloud | Price ABOVE the weekly cloud (context only, not scored) |
Takeaway The stock is trading above its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 30.77 to 31.38. Being above it means the medium-term picture is pointing upwards, and that band is the first place the stock has recent support if it slips back. Its shorter-term averages point the other way, so this is a mixed reading rather than a clear one.
Trailing returns
| 21 days | +36.0% |
|---|---|
| 63 days | +14.7% |
| 126 days | +12.8% |
| 252 days | -16.8% |
| Below 252d high | 35.9% |
Trend context
| Position | Far above trend |
|---|---|
| Extension | Extended |
| Trend slope | Rising |
| Direction of travel | Diverging from trend |
Takeaway Positive Kalman trend with moderate extension; constructive for momentum but watch entry risk.
Volatility
| State | Expanding |
|---|---|
| Current band width | 45.0% of price |
| Recent tightest | 29.8% (9 sessions ago, narrower than 78.0% of its history) |
| Expansion since | 1.51× |
| Range broken | Up |
| Band | 22.55 — 35.65 |
Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 45% wide. That is normal for this stock, so there is nothing unusual to read into it either way.
Historical trends
History begins when the site started recording, not when the company listed, so a short line means a short record and nothing more.
Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑
Insider activity
| Activity | No filings in the window |
|---|---|
| Buy filings | 0 |
| Sell filings | 0 |
Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.
Volume confirmation
| Volume-price trend | Above its signal line |
|---|---|
| Confirmation | Marginal |
| Event | Distribution (1 session(s) ago) |
|---|---|
| Volume percentile | 93% |
| Range percentile | 25% |
| Close within the bar | 47% of range |
| Event level | 32.36 (not held) |
The bearish mirror of this detector failed testing. A distribution event is reported as an observation, not as a warning that has been shown to work.
Takeaway Slightly more shares change hands on rising days than on falling ones, but the gap is too small to read anything into. There was also a day 1 session(s) ago when a great many shares changed hands and the price still failed to rise. Recorded as an observation only: Brown Bear tested this as a warning sign and it did not work.
Options Positioning
No binary-event flag
SMCI: no binary-event flag. Near IV 79%, far IV 79% (ratio 1.01), implied move 9.9%.
| Implied volatility | 79% near (9d) · 79% far (100d) |
|---|---|
| Term structure | 1.01× near/far |
| Historical volatility | 125% |
| Implied vs historical | 0.63× |
| Implied move | ±9.9% by 2026-08-21 |
| Implied move vs ATR | 0.60× |
| Skew | Call Skew (0.91×) |
| Call wall | 40.00 (+6.3% away) |
| Put wall | 25.00 (-33.5% away) |
| Gamma pin | 34.00 |
Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs less for the next few weeks than for the next few months, which is the normal state of affairs and suggests no particular date is worrying anyone. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 9.9% in either direction by 2026-08-21.
Chain as at 2026-08-12. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.
Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑
Relative Rotation
Mixed Rotation Phase
Rotation health 67.7/100; Positive Rotation.
| Rotation health | 67.7 |
|---|---|
| Rotation strength | 77.7 |
| Leg | Quadrant | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock vs sector | Weakening | 117.4 | 78.2 |
| Stock vs SPY | Weakening | 119.9 | 72.9 |
| Sector vs SPY | Leading | 113.6 | 115.9 |
Direction of travel: South-West / deteriorating rotation
Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.
News Headlines
- Loading headlines\u2026
Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.
Detailed Scoring
Positive signals
- Piotroski F-score 5/9 (+5.0)
- Altman Z-score 8.00 (+6.0)
- ROIC quality: 10.9% (+1.7)
- FCF margin quality: 7.6% (+2.3)
- FCF margin improving by 24.1 pts (+2.0)
- High earnings quality (accrual ratio -0.044) (+1.0)
- Accrual ratio improving (0.37 -> -0.04) (+2.0)
- Relative Strength 46.0% vs sector: OUTPERFORMING (+10.0)
- Track 2: MACD histogram state (0.91) (+8.0)
- Track 2: MACD line/signal trend quality (+15.0)
- Track 2: positive MACD trend regime (+10.0)
- Track 2: MACD slope expanding (+5.0)
- Track 2: volume expansion 2.93x average (+9.7)
- Track 2: relative strength trend improving (+10.0)
- Track 2: 20-day momentum acceleration 0.53 (+20.0)
- Track 2: bullish DI spread 18.6 (+8.0)
- Track 2: price above EMA20 by 24.1% (+10.0)
- Track 2: EMA20 slope expanding 5.1% (+8.0)
- Track 2: MACD histogram acceleration 0.35 (+4.0)
- Track 2: RSI trend quality 64.5, 5-day change +1.2 (+0.9)
- Track 2: VPT strength 0.13 (+3.2)
- Track 2: price above EMA50 by 23.8% (+12.0)
- Track 2: EMA50 slope improving 1.1% (+2.6)
- Track 2: Bollinger position 1.15 (+8.0)
- Regime convergence: ICHIMOKU_CLOUD_REVERSAL confidence 89.6/100 (STRONG) (+17.9)
Negative signals
- Track 2: weak/falling ADX (20.8, falling)
- Weak relative momentum rank (0.15)
- Track 2: Bearish MACD divergence
- Chase risk 72.1/100 (Exhaustion Risk): RSI 64.5, EMA20 24.1%, EMA50 23.8%, BB 1.15, distribution 13.6/100
- Gross margin improving by -5.4 pts (+-1.0)
- ROIC improving by -5.6 pts (+-2.0)
- Track 2 structural exemption: structural score 17.0/100 below the 25 quality floor; this is an unowned speculative candidate, so the universal SELL gate was skipped and the Track 2 momentum/RRG grid was allowed to evaluate instead. Structural quality here is weak by design for this kind of candidate -- treat any resulting BUY as higher risk than a Track 1 signal.
- Chase risk 72.1/100 | Extension score 27.9/100 | Exhaustion Risk