SMR
Structural scoring is not meaningful for this business
Structural scoring uses gross margin, free cash flow and Altman Z — measures built for operating companies. For banks, insurers and asset managers they produce artifacts, because the cash-flow statement is dominated by lending and deposit flows rather than operations. Treat the structural and composite figures below as not comparable with other sectors, in either direction.
- Reported free cash flow is far outside the range an operating business can show, indicating balance-sheet rather than operating flows
Some scores are at the bottom of their range
This score sits at the bottom of the 0–100 range. The underlying calculation was negative, so the displayed value is a floor, not a measurement of zero.
- Structural Score: displayed 0, underlying value -4.2
Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · -74.3% · range 7.59–53.43
The Businesswhat the company reports
Business & cash flow
| FCF / assets | -32.6% |
|---|---|
| OCF / assets | -32.5% |
| FCF / revenue | -1,460.1% |
| Gross margin | 23.8% |
| ROIC | -61.8% |
| Forward P/E | -14.2 |
FCF/assets and OCF/assets are the cash-flow measures Brown Bear's own testing found to survive; FCF/revenue is shown alongside for context. Assets are from the latest annual filing (FY2025).
Price vs Earnings growth
Trailing EPS is negative (-2.08) and forward EPS is not positive, so a growth percentage does not exist
Confidence 35.0/100
Drivers
| Trailing price return (1y) | -74.3% |
|---|
Figures
| Trailing EPS | -2.08 |
|---|---|
| Forward EPS | -0.65 |
| Forward P/E | -14.22 |
Takeaway Low data confidence (limited analyst coverage) — treat this section as informational only.
Reported earnings
Revenue Net incomeEPS (GAAP) (-1.85–-0.06, own scale) Derived Q4
12 quarters to Q1 26. Revenue and net income share one scale, so the gap between them is the margin. The baseline is zero — bars below it are losses. The line is GAAP EPS — it spans every quarter shown, where the reported figure only goes back as far as the consensus feed does.
| Quarter ending | Revenue | YoY | Net income | EPS (GAAP) | EPS reported | vs consensus | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | 565.00k | -95.8% | -44.02m | -0.14 | -0.14 | -8.8% | 2026-05-07 |
| 2025-09-30 | 8.24m | +1,635.2% | -273.32m | -1.85 | -1.85 | -1,197.3% | 2025-11-06 |
| 2025-06-30 | 8.05m | +732.9% | -17.64m | -0.13 | — | — | 2025-08-07 |
| 2025-03-31 | 13.38m | +869.9% | -14.01m | -0.11 | — | — | 2025-05-12 |
| 2024-09-30 | 475.00k | -93.2% | -17.46m | -0.18 | — | — | 2024-11-08 |
| 2024-06-30 | 967.00k | -83.3% | -27.62m | -0.31 | — | — | 2024-08-09 |
| 2024-03-31 | 1.38m | -75.0% | -16.57m | -0.21 | — | — | 2024-05-09 |
| 2023-09-30 | 6.95m | +119.1% | -19.12m | -0.26 | — | — | 2023-11-09 |
| 2023-06-30 | 5.79m | +110.8% | -9.52m | -0.13 | — | — | 2023-08-09 |
| 2023-03-31 | 5.50m | — | -10.96m | -0.16 | — | — | 2023-05-09 |
| 2022-09-30 | 3.17m | — | -10.71m | -0.23 | — | — | 2022-11-14 |
| 2022-06-30 | 2.75m | — | -2.59m | -0.06 | — | — | 2022-08-12 |
The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑
Price Levels
| Strategy | Current Price Reasonable |
|---|---|
| Reference band | 9.13 — 9.36 |
| Protective stop | 7.51 (Atr, 18.8% risk) |
| Support | 9.14 (3 touches, 1.4% away) |
| Resistance | 10.08 (8.7% away) |
Takeaway The shares are nearer the floor than the ceiling: about 1.4% above 9.14, a price buyers have stepped in at before, and 8.7% below 10.08, where sellers have turned up before. That floor has held 3 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 18.8% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.
Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.
Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)
| Daily cloud | Price ABOVE the cloud | periods 8/22/44 (85% of classic 9/26/52) |
|---|---|
| Lines | Tenkan/Kijun BEAR | cloud twist BULL (fresh up, 1d ago) |
| Cloud event | Fresh up breakout 1d ago |
| Cloud thickness | 18% percentile (thin — little structure to fight through) |
| Chikou span | Above price from 26 periods ago |
| Weekly cloud | Price BELOW the weekly cloud (context only, not scored) |
Takeaway The stock is trading above its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 9.04 to 9.19. Being above it means the medium-term picture is pointing upwards, and that band is the first place the stock has recent support if it slips back. Its shorter-term averages point the other way, so this is a mixed reading rather than a clear one.
Trailing returns
| 21 days | +12.8% |
|---|---|
| 63 days | -23.2% |
| 126 days | -29.7% |
| 252 days | -74.2% |
| Below 252d high | 82.7% |
Trend context
| Position | At trend |
|---|---|
| Extension | Normal |
| Trend slope | Flat |
| Direction of travel | Holding its deviation |
Takeaway The share price is close to the level its own longer-run trend suggests is fair, and that fair level is going sideways. The gap between the two has been fairly steady. Neither is stretched far enough to stand out.
Volatility
| State | In a squeeze |
|---|---|
| Current band width | 17.9% of price |
| Recent tightest | 17.9% (0 sessions ago, narrower than 98.0% of its history) |
| Expansion since | 1.00× |
| Band | 8.46 — 10.12 |
Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 18% wide, and it recently went unusually quiet — calmer than it has been 98% of the time. When a stock goes quiet like this, its next move tends to look big by comparison. But quiet says nothing about which way it will go: Brown Bear tested calm-before-a-move as a reason to buy, and it did not work.
Historical trends
History begins when the site started recording, not when the company listed, so a short line means a short record and nothing more.
Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑
Insider activity
| Activity | Insider selling |
|---|---|
| Buy filings | 0 |
| Sell filings | 3 |
| Shares sold | 58,771 |
| Value sold | $555.7k |
| Latest sell | 2026-08-18 |
| Filed | Insider | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Sold Fujino ShinjiDirector | 20,000 | $177,160 |
| 2026-08-05 | Sold Fisher Carl M.Chief Operating Officer | 18,771 | $175,734 |
| 2026-06-30 | Sold Hamady Robert RamseyChief Financial Officer | 20,000 | $202,800 |
Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.
Volume confirmation
| Volume-price trend | Above its signal line |
|---|---|
| Confirmation | Marginal |
No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.
Takeaway Slightly more shares change hands on rising days than on falling ones, but the gap is too small to read anything into.
Options Positioning
No binary-event flag
SMR: no binary-event flag. Near IV 82%, far IV 91% (ratio 0.90), implied move 9.6%.
| Implied volatility | 82% near (8d) · 91% far (85d) |
|---|---|
| Term structure | 0.90× near/far |
| Historical volatility | 79% |
| Implied vs historical | 1.03× |
| Implied move | ±9.6% by 2026-09-04 |
| Implied move vs ATR | 0.48× |
| Skew | Call Skew (0.91×) |
| Call wall | 10.00 (+3.6% away) |
| Put wall | 8.00 (-17.1% away) |
| Gamma pin | 10.00 |
Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs less for the next few weeks than for the next few months, which is the normal state of affairs and suggests no particular date is worrying anyone. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 9.6% in either direction by 2026-09-04.
Chain as at 2026-08-27. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.
Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑
Relative Rotation
Mixed Rotation Phase
Rotation health 57.8/100; Mixed Rotation.
| Rotation health | 57.8 |
|---|---|
| Rotation strength | 59.1 |
| Leg | Quadrant | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock vs sector | Weakening | 108.7 | 86.9 |
| Stock vs SPY | Weakening | 110.1 | 86.9 |
| Sector vs SPY | Improving | 95.4 | 117.4 |
Direction of travel: South-West / deteriorating rotation
Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.
News Headlines
- Loading headlines\u2026
Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.
Detailed Scoring
Positive signals
- Altman Z-score 5.53 (+5.0)
- Insider conviction score (+3.0)
- Gross margin quality: 23.8% (+0.4)
- FCF margin improving by -1166.7 pts (+-0.9)
- Relative Strength 10.4% vs sector: OUTPERFORMING (+9.5)
- Track 2: MACD line/signal trend quality (+8.7)
- Track 2: positive MACD trend regime (+5.8)
- Track 2: MACD slope expanding (+2.9)
- Track 2: volume expansion 1.51x average (+11.3)
- Track 2: relative strength trend improving (+9.5)
- Track 2: 20-day momentum acceleration 0.46 (+30.2)
- Track 2: bullish DI spread 6.4 (+2.9)
- Track 2: ADX 28.3 and flat (+4.8)
- Track 2: price above EMA20 by 0.4% (+0.2)
- Track 2: EMA20 slope expanding 0.7% (+1.1)
- Track 2: VPT strength 0.01 (+0.3)
- Track 2: Bollinger position 0.49 (+3.7)
- Regime convergence: ICHIMOKU_CLOUD_REVERSAL confidence 62.0/100 (EMERGING) (+12.4)
Negative signals
- Weak relative momentum rank (0.00)
- Track 2: RSI deterioration/overheating 48.4, 5-day change -7.8
- Track 2: price below EMA50 by 2.6%
- Track 2: EMA50 slope deteriorating -1.1%
- Weak Piotroski F-score (1/9)
- Gross margin improving by -62.8 pts (+-0.9)
- ROIC improving by -31.3 pts (+-1.8)
- Track 2 structural exemption: structural score 0.0/100 below the 25 quality floor; this is an unowned speculative candidate, so the universal SELL gate was skipped and the Track 2 momentum/RRG grid was allowed to evaluate instead. Structural quality here is weak by design for this kind of candidate -- treat any resulting BUY as higher risk than a Track 1 signal.
Chase risk is not elevated for this name, so extension penalties are omitted from the negative signals above.