SNDK
Some scores are at the bottom of their range
This score sits at the bottom of the 0–100 range. The underlying calculation was negative, so the displayed value is a floor, not a measurement of zero.
- Tactical Score: displayed 0, underlying value -21.5
Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · +2770.6% · range 44.40–2,335.00
The Businesswhat the company reports
Business & cash flow
| FCF / assets | -0.9% |
|---|---|
| OCF / assets | 0.6% |
| FCF / revenue | 1.1% |
| Gross margin | 71.5% |
| ROIC | -12.3% |
| Forward P/E | 5.1 |
FCF/assets and OCF/assets are the cash-flow measures Brown Bear's own testing found to survive; FCF/revenue is shown alongside for context. Assets are from the latest annual filing (FY2025).
Price vs Earnings growth
Price has run ahead of forward EPS growth by 2530.5pp
Confidence 95.0/100
Drivers
| Forward EPS growth | +240.0% |
|---|---|
| Trailing price return (1y) | +2770.6% |
| Forward P/E compression | +70.6% |
Figures
| Trailing EPS | 77.97 |
|---|---|
| Forward EPS | 265.12 |
| Trailing P/E | 17.24 |
| Forward P/E | 5.07 |
Revisions
Strongly Improving (+24.5%, 10 dates)
Takeaway Price has moved further than forward earnings growth currently justifies — worth weighing against the rest of the entry case.
Reported earnings
Revenue Net incomeEPS (GAAP) (-13.33–23.03, own scale) Derived Q4
8 quarters to Q2 26. Revenue and net income share one scale, so the gap between them is the margin. The baseline is zero — bars below it are losses. The line is GAAP EPS — it spans every quarter shown, where the reported figure only goes back as far as the consensus feed does.
| Quarter ending | Revenue | YoY | Net income | EPS (GAAP) | EPS reported | vs consensus | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | 5.95bn | +251.0% | 3.62bn | 23.03 | 23.41 | +57.9% | 2026-05-01 |
| 2026-01-02 | 3.02bn | +61.2% | 803.00m | 5.15 | 6.20 | +76.3% | 2026-01-30 |
| 2025-10-03 | 2.31bn | +22.6% | 112.00m | 0.75 | 1.22 | +27.8% | 2025-11-07 |
| 2025-03-28 | 1.70bn | -0.6% | -1.93bn | -13.33 | — | — | 2025-05-12 |
| 2024-12-27 | 1.88bn | +12.7% | 104.00m | 0.72 | — | — | 2025-03-07 |
| 2024-09-27 | 1.88bn | — | 211.00m | 1.46 | — | — | 2025-11-07 |
| 2024-03-29 | 1.71bn | — | 27.00m | 0.19 | — | — | 2025-05-12 |
| 2023-12-29 | 1.67bn | — | -301.00m | — | — | — | 2025-03-07 |
Earnings response
| Typical move around a filing | ±14.3% |
|---|---|
| On an ordinary two days | ±5.3% — filings move it 2.7× as much |
| Direction | 8 up, 0 down over 8 filings |
Revenue up year on year Revenue down Price move around the filing separate scales — a crossing means nothing
| Quarter ending | Filed | Revenue YoY | Move around filing | Next 20 sessions vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | 2026-05-01 | +251.0% | +14.5% | +30.9% |
| 2026-01-02 | 2026-01-30 | +61.2% | +23.4% | -12.8% |
| 2025-10-03 | 2025-11-07 | +22.6% | +29.0% | -18.3% |
| 2025-03-28 | 2025-05-12 | -0.6% | +11.3% | -6.7% |
| 2024-12-27 | 2025-03-07 | +12.7% | +14.0% | -30.8% |
| 2024-09-27 | 2025-11-07 | — | +29.0% | -18.3% |
| 2024-03-29 | 2025-05-12 | — | +11.3% | -6.7% |
| 2023-12-29 | 2025-03-07 | — | +14.0% | -30.8% |
Share count
Diluted shares Return since the previous filing
| Direction | Growing — shares issued |
|---|---|
| Diluted shares | 157.0M as at 2026-04-03 |
| Change over 1 year | +8.3% |
The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑
Price Levels
| Strategy | Fair Value Anchor |
|---|---|
| Reference band | 928.41 — 1,351.01 |
| Protective stop | 793.14 (Atr, 30.4% risk) |
| Support | 557.84 (2 touches, 141.0% away) |
| Resistance | 2,351.19 (74.9% away) |
Takeaway The shares are nearer the ceiling than the floor: about 74.9% below 2,351.19, where sellers have turned up before, and 141.0% above 557.84, where buyers have stepped in before. That floor has held 2 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 30.4% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.
Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.
Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)
| Daily cloud | Price BELOW the cloud | periods 6/16/32 (61% of classic 9/26/52) |
|---|---|
| Lines | Tenkan/Kijun BEAR | cloud twist BEAR |
| Cloud thickness | 85% percentile (thick — substantial structure) |
| Chikou span | Not clear of price from 26 periods ago |
| Weekly cloud | Price BELOW the weekly cloud (context only, not scored) |
Takeaway The stock is trading below its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 1,430.09 to 1,639.49. Being below it means the medium-term picture is pointing downwards, and that band is the first hurdle it would have to climb back through. Its shorter-term averages agree with that. The band is unusually wide at the moment, so it marks a broad zone rather than a single level.
Trailing returns
| 21 days | -23.5% |
|---|---|
| 63 days | -7.4% |
| 126 days | +148.2% |
| 252 days | +2,999.6% |
| Below 252d high | 42.4% |
Trend context
| Position | Far above trend |
|---|---|
| Extension | Extremely extended |
| Trend slope | Flat |
| Direction of travel | Diverging from trend |
Takeaway Extreme upside extension is still moving away from fair trend; chase risk is elevated.
Volatility
| State | No recent compression |
|---|---|
| Current band width | 46.4% of price |
| Recent tightest | 46.4% (0 sessions ago, narrower than 48.0% of its history) |
| Expansion since | 1.00× |
| Band | 1,023.86 — 1,642.91 |
Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 46% wide. That is normal for this stock, so there is nothing unusual to read into it either way.
Historical trends
History begins when the site started recording, not when the company listed, so a short line means a short record and nothing more.
Repair Pathway
- Nearest Trigger Relative momentum leadership holds already satisfied Track 2 pathway: relative momentum leadership is already present; maintaining it supports upgrade pressure; Kalman divergence weakens pathway; chase risk lowers upgrade comfort · Broadly stable
- Trigger 2 EMA20 reclaim +2.2% gap is improving; Kalman divergence weakens pathway; chase risk lowers upgrade comfort · Broadly stable
- Trigger 3 +DI back above -DI repair trigger repair engine identifies this as the nearest technical repair catalyst; Kalman divergence weakens pathway; chase risk lowers upgrade comfort · Improving
- Trigger 4 RSI recovery above 50 secondary repair secondary repair catalyst could add confirmation if the primary trigger develops; Kalman divergence weakens pathway; chase risk lowers upgrade comfort · Improving
- Trigger 5 Relative strength stabilisation state change relative momentum rank supports RS stabilisation; Kalman divergence weakens pathway; chase risk lowers upgrade comfort · Broadly stable
Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑
Insider activity
| Activity | No filings in the window |
|---|---|
| Buy filings | 0 |
| Sell filings | 0 |
Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.
Volume confirmation
| Volume-price trend | Below its signal line |
|---|---|
| Confirmation | Marginal |
No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.
Takeaway The heaviest trading has been happening on days when the price falls: when large numbers of shares change hands, the price has tended to go down rather than up. That tells you where the weight of trading has been. It does not tell you what happens next, and it is not a signal to sell.
Options Positioning
No binary-event flag
SNDK: no binary-event flag. Near IV 91%, far IV 88% (ratio 1.03), implied move 11.5%.
| Implied volatility | 91% near (9d) · 88% far (65d) |
|---|---|
| Term structure | 1.03× near/far |
| Historical volatility | 157% |
| Implied vs historical | 0.58× |
| Implied move | ±11.5% by 2026-08-21 |
| Implied move vs ATR | 0.37× |
| Skew | Flat (1.00×) |
| Call wall | 2,820.00 (+109.8% away) |
| Gamma pin | 3,190.00 |
Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs less for the next few weeks than for the next few months, which is the normal state of affairs and suggests no particular date is worrying anyone. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 11.5% in either direction by 2026-08-21.
Chain as at 2026-08-12. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.
Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑
Relative Rotation
Stock Rotation Headwind
Rotation health 55.3/100; Mixed Rotation.
| Rotation health | 55.3 |
|---|---|
| Rotation strength | 63.8 |
| Leg | Quadrant | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock vs sector | Lagging | 93.2 | 98.9 |
| Stock vs SPY | Lagging | 95.0 | 92.6 |
| Sector vs SPY | Leading | 113.6 | 115.9 |
Direction of travel: South-East / trend strong but momentum cooling
Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.
News Headlines
- Loading headlines\u2026
Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.
Detailed Scoring
Positive signals
- Altman Z-score 42.81 (+6.0)
- Insider conviction score (+5.0)
- Gross margin quality: 71.5% (+5.1)
- FCF margin quality: 1.1% (+0.3)
- Gross margin improving by 55.4 pts (+2.0)
- FCF margin improving by 5.8 pts (+1.0)
- High earnings quality (accrual ratio -0.133) (+3.0)
- Accrual ratio improving (-0.03 -> -0.13) (+2.0)
- Track 2: MACD histogram state (14.61) (+12.0)
- Track 2: MACD line/signal trend quality (+18.0)
- Track 2: MACD slope expanding (+8.0)
- Track 2: 20-day momentum acceleration 0.07 (+4.0)
- Track 2: relative momentum rank 1.00 (+15.0)
- Track 2: MACD histogram acceleration 14.78 (+12.0)
- Track 2: Bollinger position 0.52 (+4.1)
- Regime convergence: TREND_EXHAUSTION confidence 60.0/100 (EMERGING) (-12.0)
Negative signals
- Underperforming sector over 20 days
- Track 2: negative MACD regime (-8.0)
- Track 2: weak volume for momentum setup (0.71x average)
- Relative strength versus sector deteriorating
- Track 2: bearish DI spread (-12.5)
- Track 2: weak/falling ADX (25.1, falling)
- Track 2: price below EMA20 by 2.1%
- Track 2: EMA20 slope deteriorating -4.7%
- Track 2: RSI deterioration/overheating 41.0, 5-day change -7.0
- Track 2: weak VPT confirmation (-0.01)
- Track 2: price below EMA50 by 8.9%
- Track 2: EMA50 slope deteriorating -5.9%
- ROIC improving by -8.2 pts (+-2.0)
- Track 2 structural exemption: structural score 22.4/100 below the 25 quality floor; this is an unowned speculative candidate, so the universal SELL gate was skipped and the Track 2 momentum/RRG grid was allowed to evaluate instead. Structural quality here is weak by design for this kind of candidate -- treat any resulting BUY as higher risk than a Track 1 signal.
Chase risk is not elevated for this name, so extension penalties are omitted from the negative signals above.