SNOW
Some scores are at the bottom of their range
This score sits at the bottom of the 0–100 range. The underlying calculation was negative, so the displayed value is a floor, not a measurement of zero.
- Tactical Score: displayed 0, underlying value -17.0
Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · +62.3% · range 121.11–337.38
The Businesswhat the company reports
Business & cash flow
| FCF / assets | 12.3% |
|---|---|
| OCF / assets | 13.4% |
| FCF / revenue | 26.1% |
| Gross margin | 67.1% |
| ROIC | -27.7% |
| Forward P/E | 116.5 |
FCF/assets and OCF/assets are the cash-flow measures Brown Bear's own testing found to survive; FCF/revenue is shown alongside for context. Assets are from the latest annual filing (FY2026).
Price vs Earnings growth
Trailing EPS is negative (-3.50), so a growth percentage does not exist — forward EPS of 2.71 implies a swing from loss to profit
Confidence 35.0/100
Drivers
| Trailing price return (1y) | +62.3% |
|---|
Figures
| Trailing EPS | -3.50 |
|---|---|
| Forward EPS | 2.71 |
| Forward P/E | 116.51 |
Revisions
Stable (+0.3%, 10 dates)
Takeaway Low data confidence (limited analyst coverage) — treat this section as informational only.
Reported earnings
Revenue Net incomeEPS (GAAP) (-1.29–-0.52, own scale) Derived Q4
12 quarters to Q2 26. Revenue and net income share one scale, so the gap between them is the margin. The baseline is zero — bars below it are losses. The line is GAAP EPS — it spans every quarter shown, where the reported figure only goes back as far as the consensus feed does.
| Quarter ending | Revenue | YoY | Net income | EPS (GAAP) | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 1.39bn | +33.5% | -295.57m | -0.86 | 2026-05-29 |
| 2026-01-31 (derived) | 1.28bn | +30.1% | -309.55m | -0.92 | 2026-03-20 |
| 2025-10-31 | 1.21bn | +28.7% | -293.96m | -0.87 | 2025-12-05 |
| 2025-07-31 | 1.14bn | +31.8% | -298.02m | -0.89 | 2025-09-05 |
| 2025-04-30 | 1.04bn | +25.7% | -430.09m | -1.29 | 2025-05-30 |
| 2025-01-31 (derived) | 986.77m | +27.4% | -327.47m | -0.98 | 2025-03-21 |
| 2024-10-31 | 942.09m | +28.3% | -324.28m | -0.98 | 2024-11-27 |
| 2024-07-31 | 868.82m | +28.9% | -316.90m | -0.95 | 2024-08-29 |
| 2024-04-30 | 828.71m | — | -316.99m | — | 2024-05-31 |
| 2024-01-31 (derived) | 774.70m | — | -169.35m | -0.52 | 2024-03-26 |
| 2023-10-31 | 734.17m | — | -214.25m | -0.65 | 2023-12-01 |
| 2023-07-31 | 674.02m | — | -226.87m | -0.69 | 2023-08-31 |
Share count
Diluted shares Return since the previous filing
| Direction | Growing — shares issued |
|---|---|
| Diluted shares | 345.4M as at 2026-04-30 |
| Change over 1 year | +3.8% |
| Change over 3 years | +8.4% |
| Public float | $73.50bn as at 2025-07-31 (10-K) |
History before 2021-04-30 is not shown. The share count jumps at that date by a ratio no ordinary issuance produces — a split whose factor is not in Brown Bear's split store — so earlier figures are on a different basis and cannot be compared with today's.
The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑
Price Levels
| Strategy | Fair Value Anchor |
|---|---|
| Reference band | 280.24 — 316.95 |
| Protective stop | 269.32 (Atr, 9.8% risk) |
| Support | 259.91 (2 touches, 21.3% away) |
| Resistance | — (— away) |
Takeaway The shares are about 21.3% above 259.91, a price buyers have stepped in at before. There is no ceiling to point to, because the stock is trading where it has not traded before and nobody has sold it at these levels. That floor has held 2 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 9.8% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.
Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.
Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)
| Daily cloud | Price INSIDE the cloud | periods 9/26/51 (99% of classic 9/26/52) |
|---|---|
| Lines | Tenkan/Kijun BULL | cloud twist BULL |
| Cloud thickness | 71% percentile |
| Chikou span | Above price from 26 periods ago |
| Weekly cloud | Price ABOVE the weekly cloud (context only, not scored) |
Takeaway The stock is trading inside its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 279.71 to 323.52. Inside the band those averages disagree with each other, so the indicator is not saying much either way. Its shorter-term averages point the other way, so this is a mixed reading rather than a clear one.
Trailing returns
| 21 days | +16.6% |
|---|---|
| 63 days | +79.9% |
| 126 days | +86.4% |
| 252 days | +62.0% |
| Below 252d high | 6.5% |
Trend context
| Position | Far above trend |
|---|---|
| Extension | Extremely extended |
| Trend slope | Rising |
| Direction of travel | Diverging from trend |
Takeaway Extreme upside extension is still moving away from fair trend; chase risk is elevated.
Volatility
| State | In a squeeze |
|---|---|
| Current band width | 14.9% of price |
| Recent tightest | 14.9% (0 sessions ago, narrower than 91.0% of its history) |
| Expansion since | 1.00× |
| Band | 297.99 — 345.82 |
Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 15% wide, and it recently went unusually quiet — calmer than it has been 91% of the time. When a stock goes quiet like this, its next move tends to look big by comparison. But quiet says nothing about which way it will go: Brown Bear tested calm-before-a-move as a reason to buy, and it did not work.
Historical trends
History begins when the site started recording, not when the company listed, so a short line means a short record and nothing more.
Repair Pathway
- Nearest Trigger EMA20 reclaim +0.1% gap is improving · Broadly stable
- Trigger 2 MACD histogram acceleration turns positive repair trigger repair engine identifies this as the nearest technical repair catalyst · Improving
- Trigger 3 Volume confirmation above 1.2x +0.20x volume confirmation would improve confidence in the pathway · Broadly stable
- Trigger 4 RSI recovery above 50 secondary repair secondary repair catalyst could add confirmation if the primary trigger develops · Deteriorating
- Trigger 5 Relative strength stabilisation state change relative momentum rank supports RS stabilisation · Broadly stable
Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑
Insider activity
| Activity | Insider selling |
|---|---|
| Buy filings | 0 |
| Sell filings | 55 |
| Shares sold | 823,227 |
| Value sold | $249.4m |
| Latest sell | 2026-08-19 |
| Filed | Insider | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Sold Slootman FrankDirector | 12,662 | $4,040,001 |
| 2026-08-19 | Sold Slootman FrankDirector | 18,023 | $5,766,927 |
| 2026-08-19 | Sold Slootman FrankDirector | 4,259 | $1,366,662 |
| 2026-08-19 | Sold Slootman FrankDirector | 3,988 | $1,284,088 |
| 2026-08-19 | Sold Slootman FrankDirector | 3,711 | $1,198,197 |
| 2026-08-19 | Sold Slootman FrankDirector | 3,895 | $1,262,479 |
Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.
Volume confirmation
| Volume-price trend | Above its signal line |
|---|---|
| Confirmation | Marginal |
No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.
Takeaway Slightly more shares change hands on rising days than on falling ones, but the gap is too small to read anything into.
Options Positioning
Binary-event risk flagged
SNOW: binary-event risk suspected -- Term structure inverted (near 107% IV vs far 58% IV, ratio 1.86); Implied move 12.7% is 1.24x the ATR-expected 10.2% over 8d. Options market is pricing a discrete catalyst; technical breakout signals are unreliable until it resolves.
| Implied volatility | 107% near (8d) · 58% far (85d) — Term structure inverted — the market is pricing an event in the near window |
|---|---|
| Term structure | 1.86× near/far |
| Historical volatility | 38% |
| Implied vs historical | 2.83× — Options are priced well above what the stock has actually done |
| Implied move | ±12.7% by 2026-09-04 — Large relative to this stock's normal daily range |
| Implied move vs ATR | 1.24× |
| Skew | Flat (1.00×) |
| Call wall | 350.00 (+5.7% away) |
| Put wall | 290.00 (-12.4% away) |
| Gamma pin | 350.00 |
- Term structure inverted (near 107% IV vs far 58% IV, ratio 1.86)
- Implied move 12.7% is 1.24x the ATR-expected 10.2% over 8d
Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs more for the next few weeks than for the next few months. Traders usually pay up like that when they know something is coming soon — results, a court ruling, a regulatory decision. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 12.7% in either direction by 2026-09-04. The overall shape suggests they expect a one-off result that lands either well or badly, rather than a gradual drift.
Chain as at 2026-08-27. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.
Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑
Relative Rotation
Stock Rotation Headwind
Rotation health 12.7/100; Severe Rotation Headwind.
| Rotation health | 12.7 |
|---|---|
| Rotation strength | 89.0 |
| Leg | Quadrant | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock vs sector | Lagging | 80.7 | 86.5 |
| Stock vs SPY | Lagging | 86.1 | 83.8 |
| Sector vs SPY | Weakening | 103.8 | 79.2 |
Direction of travel: South-West / deteriorating rotation
Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.
News Headlines
- Loading headlines\u2026
Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.
Detailed Scoring
Positive signals
- Altman Z-score 10.97 (+14.3)
- Insider conviction score (+17.7)
- Gross margin quality: 67.1% (+13.8)
- FCF margin quality: 26.1% (+13.9)
- FCF margin improving by -0.4 pts (+-2.4)
- High earnings quality (accrual ratio -0.280) (+8.0)
- Accrual ratio improving (-0.25 -> -0.28) (+4.0)
- Track 1: bullish DI spread 1.1 (+1.0)
- Track 1: ADX 35.6 and falling (+4.0)
- Track 1: relative momentum rank 0.90 (+5.0)
- Track 1: EMA20 slope improving 1.2% (+2.9)
- Track 1: VPT strength 0.01 (+0.1)
- Track 1: price above EMA50 by 10.1% (+5.0)
- Track 1: EMA50 slope improving 7.1% (+3.0)
- Track 1: Bollinger position 0.36 (+5.1)
Negative signals
- Track 1: weak MACD histogram (-3.85)
- Track 1: weak volume confirmation (0.67x average)
- Relative strength versus sector deteriorating
- Track 1: price below EMA20 by 0.1%
- Track 1: MACD histogram deteriorating (-2.77)
- Track 1: weak MACD line/signal structure (-5.0)
- Track 1: MACD slope deteriorating (-5.0)
- Track 1: RSI deterioration/extension 48.2, 5-day change -21.5
- Weak Piotroski F-score (2/9)
- ROIC improving by -5.3 pts (+-4.0)
Chase risk is not elevated for this name, so extension penalties are omitted from the negative signals above.