STZ
Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · -21.2% · range 127.65–170.37
The Businesswhat the company reports
Business & cash flow
| FCF / assets | 8.2% |
|---|---|
| OCF / assets | 12.2% |
| FCF / revenue | 29.2% |
| Gross margin | 52.7% |
| ROIC | 14.3% |
| Forward P/E | 10.8 |
FCF/assets and OCF/assets are the cash-flow measures Brown Bear's own testing found to survive; FCF/revenue is shown alongside for context. Assets are from the latest annual filing (FY2026).
Price vs Earnings growth
Forward EPS growth has outpaced trailing price return by +39.2pp
Confidence 95.0/100
Drivers
| Forward EPS growth | +18.0% |
|---|---|
| Trailing price return (1y) | -21.2% |
| Forward P/E compression | +15.3% |
Figures
| Trailing EPS | 10.50 |
|---|---|
| Forward EPS | 12.39 |
| Trailing P/E | 12.76 |
| Forward P/E | 10.81 |
Revisions
Stable (+0.0%, 10 dates)
Takeaway Earnings growth is outpacing price — consistent with the stock not yet fully reflecting its improving forward estimates.
Reported earnings
Revenue Net income Derived Q4
12 quarters to Q2 26. Revenue and net income share one scale, so the gap between them is the margin. The baseline is zero — bars below it are losses.
| Quarter ending | Revenue | YoY | Net income | EPS (GAAP) | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | 2.43bn | -3.3% | 653.80m | — | 2026-07-01 |
| 2026-02-28 (derived) | 1.92bn | -11.3% | 201.80m | — | 2026-04-22 |
| 2025-11-30 | 2.22bn | -9.8% | 502.80m | — | 2026-01-08 |
| 2025-08-31 | 2.48bn | -15.0% | 466.00m | — | 2025-10-07 |
| 2025-05-31 | 2.52bn | -5.5% | 516.10m | — | 2025-07-02 |
| 2025-02-28 (derived) | 2.16bn | +1.2% | -375.30m | — | 2025-04-23 |
| 2024-11-30 | 2.46bn | -0.3% | 615.90m | — | 2025-01-10 |
| 2024-08-31 | 2.92bn | +2.9% | -1.20bn | — | 2024-10-03 |
| 2024-05-31 | 2.66bn | — | 877.00m | — | 2024-07-03 |
| 2024-02-29 (derived) | 2.14bn | — | 392.40m | — | 2024-04-23 |
| 2023-11-30 | 2.47bn | — | 509.10m | — | 2024-01-05 |
| 2023-08-31 | 2.84bn | — | 690.00m | — | 2023-10-05 |
Earnings response
| Typical move around a filing | ±3.5% |
|---|---|
| On an ordinary two days | ±1.2% — filings move it 3.0× as much |
| Direction | 6 up, 6 down over 12 filings |
Revenue up year on year Revenue down Price move around the filing separate scales — a crossing means nothing
| Quarter ending | Filed | Revenue YoY | Move around filing | Next 20 sessions vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | 2026-07-01 | -3.3% | -1.2% | -4.8% |
| 2025-11-30 | 2026-01-08 | -9.8% | +4.6% | +12.0% |
| 2025-08-31 | 2025-10-07 | -15.0% | +2.9% | -8.4% |
| 2025-05-31 | 2025-07-02 | -5.5% | +3.5% | -3.2% |
| 2024-11-30 | 2025-01-10 | -0.3% | -15.2% | -15.0% |
| 2024-08-31 | 2024-10-03 | +2.9% | -3.5% | -5.3% |
| 2024-05-31 | 2024-07-03 | +5.8% | +0.1% | -0.8% |
| 2023-11-30 | 2024-01-05 | +1.4% | +3.2% | -4.6% |
| 2023-08-31 | 2023-10-05 | +6.8% | -5.1% | +1.3% |
| 2023-05-31 | 2023-06-30 | +6.4% | +0.3% | +6.3% |
| 2022-11-30 | 2023-01-05 | +5.0% | -7.3% | +2.7% |
| 2022-08-31 | 2022-10-06 | +12.0% | -5.6% | +6.6% |
The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑
Price Levels
| Strategy | Current Price Reasonable |
|---|---|
| Reference band | 131.95 — 135.30 |
| Protective stop | 127.65 (Structure, 4.5% risk) |
| Support | 128.88 (5 touches, 3.9% away) |
| Resistance | 134.27 (0.2% away) |
Takeaway The shares are nearer the ceiling than the floor: about 0.2% below 134.27, where sellers have turned up before, and 3.9% above 128.88, where buyers have stepped in before. That floor has held 5 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 4.5% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.
Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.
Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)
| Daily cloud | Price BELOW the cloud | periods 9/26/52 (100% of classic 9/26/52) |
|---|---|
| Lines | Tenkan/Kijun BEAR | cloud twist BEAR |
| Cloud thickness | 68% percentile |
| Chikou span | Above price from 26 periods ago |
| Weekly cloud | Price BELOW the weekly cloud (context only, not scored) |
Takeaway The stock is trading below its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 136.14 to 139.63. Being below it means the medium-term picture is pointing downwards, and that band is the first hurdle it would have to climb back through. Its shorter-term averages agree with that.
Trailing returns
| 21 days | +2.0% |
|---|---|
| 63 days | -6.0% |
| 126 days | -19.1% |
| 252 days | -20.6% |
| Below 252d high | 21.4% |
Trend context
| Position | Below trend |
|---|---|
| Extension | Deeply oversold |
| Trend slope | Falling |
| Direction of travel | Converging back to trend |
Takeaway Extreme downside deviation is beginning to mean-revert toward Kalman fair trend.
Volatility
| State | In a squeeze |
|---|---|
| Current band width | 5.8% of price |
| Recent tightest | 5.3% (5 sessions ago, narrower than 94.0% of its history) |
| Expansion since | 1.11× |
| Band | 128.26 — 135.96 |
Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 6% wide, and it recently went unusually quiet — calmer than it has been 94% of the time. When a stock goes quiet like this, its next move tends to look big by comparison. But quiet says nothing about which way it will go: Brown Bear tested calm-before-a-move as a reason to buy, and it did not work.
Historical trends
History begins when the site started recording, not when the company listed, so a short line means a short record and nothing more.
Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑
Insider activity
| Activity | No filings in the window |
|---|---|
| Buy filings | 0 |
| Sell filings | 0 |
Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.
Volume confirmation
| Volume-price trend | Above its signal line |
|---|---|
| Confirmation | Marginal |
No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.
Takeaway Slightly more shares change hands on rising days than on falling ones, but the gap is too small to read anything into.
Options Positioning
No binary-event flag
STZ: no binary-event flag. Near IV 32%, far IV 31% (ratio 1.00), implied move 4.0%.
| Implied volatility | 32% near (9d) · 31% far (65d) |
|---|---|
| Term structure | 1.00× near/far |
| Historical volatility | 25% |
| Implied vs historical | 1.29× |
| Implied move | ±4.0% by 2026-08-21 |
| Implied move vs ATR | 0.71× |
| Skew | Call Skew (0.83×) |
| Call wall | 180.00 (+34.4% away) |
| Put wall | 100.00 (-25.4% away) |
| Gamma pin | 180.00 |
Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs less for the next few weeks than for the next few months, which is the normal state of affairs and suggests no particular date is worrying anyone. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 4.0% in either direction by 2026-08-21.
Chain as at 2026-08-12. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.
Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑
Relative Rotation
Leadership Cooling
Rotation health 71.6/100; Positive Rotation.
| Rotation health | 71.6 |
|---|---|
| Rotation strength | 75.5 |
| Leg | Quadrant | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock vs sector | Leading | 126.2 | 111.5 |
| Stock vs SPY | Leading | 114.1 | 111.0 |
| Sector vs SPY | Lagging | 84.3 | 87.1 |
Direction of travel: South-East / trend strong but momentum cooling
Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.
News Headlines
- Loading headlines\u2026
Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.
Detailed Scoring
Positive signals
- Piotroski F-score 6/9 (+15.0)
- Altman Z-score 2.72 (+3.0)
- Gross margin quality: 52.7% (+12.0)
- ROIC quality: 14.3% (+7.9)
- FCF margin quality: 29.2% (+19.5)
- ROIC improving by 12.3 pts (+8.0)
- FCF margin improving by -1.7 pts (+-3.0)
- High earnings quality (accrual ratio -0.045) (+2.0)
- Track 1: MACD histogram state (0.75) (+6.0)
- Track 1: relative strength trend improving (+5.0)
- Track 1: 20-day momentum acceleration 0.13 (+9.0)
- Track 1: bullish DI spread 17.7 (+5.0)
- Track 1: ADX 15.0 and rising (+2.0)
- Track 1: EMA20 reclaim distance 0.7% (+7.4)
- Track 1: EMA20 slope improving 0.5% (+1.2)
- Track 1: MACD histogram acceleration 0.39 (+4.0)
- Track 1: MACD line/signal repair quality (+8.0)
- Track 1: MACD slope improving (+5.0)
- Track 1: RSI recovery 65.1, 5-day change +28.0 (+3.8)
- Track 1: VPT strength 0.01 (+0.2)
- Track 1: EMA50 support proximity 1.7% (+3.6)
- Track 1: EMA200 support proximity 9.1% (+0.6)
- Track 1: Bollinger position 0.74 (+2.1)
Negative signals
- Track 1: weak volume confirmation (0.66x average)
- Weak relative momentum rank (0.12)
- Track 1: price below EMA50 by 1.7%
- Track 1: EMA50 slope deteriorating -1.3%
Chase risk is not elevated for this name, so extension penalties are omitted from the negative signals above.