TFC
Structural scoring is not meaningful for this business
Structural scoring uses gross margin, free cash flow and Altman Z — measures built for operating companies. For banks, insurers and asset managers they produce artifacts, because the cash-flow statement is dominated by lending and deposit flows rather than operations. Treat the structural and composite figures below as not comparable with other sectors, in either direction.
- Cost of goods sold is not reported, so gross margin reads as 100%
Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · +19.7% · range 41.09–55.81
The Businesswhat the company reports
Business & cash flow
| OCF / assets | 1.0% |
|---|---|
| FCF / revenue | 28.2% |
| Gross margin | 100.0% |
| ROIC | 1.0% |
| Forward P/E | 10.6 |
This company does not report capital expenditure in the standard filing tag, so free cash flow cannot be derived and FCF/assets is not shown — common for asset managers, REITs, insurers and utilities. OCF/assets is shown instead, and it is the other measure Brown Bear's testing found to survive. Assets are from the latest annual filing (FY2025).
Price vs Earnings growth
Price has run ahead of forward EPS growth by 6.0pp
Confidence 95.0/100
Drivers
| Forward EPS growth | +13.6% |
|---|---|
| Trailing price return (1y) | +19.7% |
| Forward P/E compression | +12.0% |
Figures
| Trailing EPS | 4.38 |
|---|---|
| Forward EPS | 4.98 |
| Trailing P/E | 12.03 |
| Forward P/E | 10.58 |
Revisions
Stable (-0.3%, 10 dates)
Takeaway Price and forward earnings growth are broadly in step; no strong valuation lean either way.
Share count
Diluted shares Return since the previous filing
| Direction | Shrinking — shares retired |
|---|---|
| Diluted shares | 1,266.6M as at 2026-03-31 |
| Change over 1 year | -6.0% |
| Change over 3 years | -6.7% |
| Public float | $55.40bn as at 2025-06-30 (10-K) |
History before 2020-03-31 is not shown. The share count jumps at that date by a ratio no ordinary issuance produces — a split whose factor is not in Brown Bear's split store — so earlier figures are on a different basis and cannot be compared with today's.
The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑
Price Levels
| Strategy | Fair Value Anchor |
|---|---|
| Reference band | 50.31 — 52.93 |
| Protective stop | 50.36 (Structure, 2.5% risk) |
| Support | 50.78 (5 touches, 3.7% away) |
| Resistance | 53.30 (1.2% away) |
Takeaway The shares are nearer the ceiling than the floor: about 1.2% below 53.30, where sellers have turned up before, and 3.7% above 50.78, where buyers have stepped in before. That floor has held 5 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 2.5% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.
Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.
Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)
| Daily cloud | Price ABOVE the cloud | periods 9/26/52 (100% of classic 9/26/52) |
|---|---|
| Lines | Tenkan/Kijun BULL | cloud twist BULL |
| Cloud thickness | 52% percentile |
| Chikou span | Above price from 26 periods ago |
| Weekly cloud | Price ABOVE the weekly cloud (context only, not scored) |
Takeaway The stock is trading above its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 50.41 to 51.17. Being above it means the medium-term picture is pointing upwards, and that band is the first place the stock has recent support if it slips back. Its shorter-term averages agree with that.
Trailing returns
| 21 days | +1.4% |
|---|---|
| 63 days | +10.2% |
| 126 days | -4.4% |
| 252 days | +23.0% |
| Below 252d high | 5.6% |
Trend context
| Position | At trend |
|---|---|
| Extension | Extended |
| Trend slope | Rising |
| Direction of travel | Holding its deviation |
Takeaway Positive Kalman trend with moderate extension; constructive for momentum but watch entry risk.
Volatility
| State | In a squeeze |
|---|---|
| Current band width | 4.6% of price |
| Recent tightest | 4.6% (0 sessions ago, narrower than 99.0% of its history) |
| Expansion since | 1.00× |
| Band | 50.97 — 53.36 |
Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 5% wide, and it recently went unusually quiet — calmer than it has been 99% of the time. When a stock goes quiet like this, its next move tends to look big by comparison. But quiet says nothing about which way it will go: Brown Bear tested calm-before-a-move as a reason to buy, and it did not work.
Historical trends
History begins when the site started recording, not when the company listed, so a short line means a short record and nothing more.
Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑
Insider activity
| Activity | No filings in the window |
|---|---|
| Buy filings | 0 |
| Sell filings | 0 |
Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.
Volume confirmation
| Volume-price trend | Above its signal line |
|---|---|
| Confirmation | Marginal |
No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.
Takeaway Slightly more shares change hands on rising days than on falling ones, but the gap is too small to read anything into.
Options Positioning
No binary-event flag
TFC: no binary-event flag. Near IV 27%, far IV 29% (ratio 0.92), implied move 3.3%.
| Implied volatility | 27% near (9d) · 29% far (65d) |
|---|---|
| Term structure | 0.92× near/far |
| Historical volatility | 18% |
| Implied vs historical | 1.48× |
| Implied move | ±3.3% by 2026-08-21 |
| Implied move vs ATR | 0.69× |
| Skew | Put Skew (1.40×) |
| Put wall | 37.50 (-28.8% away) |
| Gamma pin | 37.50 |
Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs less for the next few weeks than for the next few months, which is the normal state of affairs and suggests no particular date is worrying anyone. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 3.3% in either direction by 2026-08-21.
Chain as at 2026-08-12. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.
Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑
Relative Rotation
Stock Rotation Headwind
Rotation health 14.3/100; Severe Rotation Headwind.
| Rotation health | 14.3 |
|---|---|
| Rotation strength | 80.7 |
| Leg | Quadrant | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock vs sector | Lagging | 87.3 | 94.0 |
| Stock vs SPY | Lagging | 78.2 | 93.5 |
| Sector vs SPY | Lagging | 76.4 | 91.0 |
Direction of travel: West / relative trend weakening
Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.
News Headlines
- Loading headlines\u2026
Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.
Detailed Scoring
Positive signals
- Piotroski F-score 5/9 (+10.0)
- Insider conviction score (+5.0)
- Gross margin quality: 100.0% (+22.0)
- FCF margin quality: 28.2% (+18.8)
- FCF margin improving by 11.9 pts (+5.0)
- High earnings quality (accrual ratio -0.001) (+2.0)
- Accrual ratio improving (0.00 -> -0.00) (+5.0)
- Track 1: MACD histogram state (-0.06) (+3.0)
- Track 1: bullish DI spread 15.4 (+5.0)
- Track 1: ADX 16.4 and rising (+2.0)
- Track 1: relative momentum rank 0.63 (+2.0)
- Track 1: EMA20 reclaim distance 1.2% (+7.1)
- Track 1: EMA20 slope improving 0.4% (+0.9)
- Track 1: RSI recovery 62.8, 5-day change +15.5 (+5.0)
- Track 1: VPT strength 0.00 (+0.1)
- Track 1: price above EMA50 by 3.0% (+1.9)
- Track 1: EMA50 slope improving 1.1% (+2.3)
- Track 1: EMA50 support proximity 3.0% (+2.5)
- Track 1: EMA200 support proximity 7.7% (+1.6)
- Track 1: Bollinger position 0.71 (+2.3)
Negative signals
- Track 1: weak volume confirmation (0.58x average)
- Relative strength versus sector deteriorating
- Track 1: negative 20-day momentum acceleration (-0.09)
- Track 1: weak MACD line/signal structure (-5.0)
- Track 1: MACD slope deteriorating (-3.0)
- Below-average Altman Z-score (1.21)
- ROIC improving by -0.0 pts (+-5.0)
Chase risk is not elevated for this name, so extension penalties are omitted from the negative signals above.