TGT
Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · +44.9% · range 83.68–154.00
The Businesswhat the company reports
Business & cash flow
| FCF / assets | 4.8% |
|---|---|
| OCF / assets | 11.0% |
| FCF / revenue | 6.3% |
| Gross margin | 28.1% |
| ROIC | 13.6% |
| Forward P/E | 17.1 |
FCF/assets and OCF/assets are the cash-flow measures Brown Bear's own testing found to survive; FCF/revenue is shown alongside for context. Assets are from the latest annual filing (FY2025).
Price vs Earnings growth
Price has run ahead of forward EPS growth by 27.1pp
Confidence 95.0/100
Drivers
| Forward EPS growth | +17.8% |
|---|---|
| Trailing price return (1y) | +44.9% |
| Forward P/E compression | +15.1% |
Figures
| Trailing EPS | 7.65 |
|---|---|
| Forward EPS | 9.01 |
| Trailing P/E | 20.13 |
| Forward P/E | 17.09 |
Revisions
Stable (+0.9%, 10 dates)
Takeaway Price has moved further than forward earnings growth currently justifies — worth weighing against the rest of the entry case.
Reported earnings
Revenue Net incomeEPS (GAAP) (1.51–2.57, own scale) Derived Q4
12 quarters to Q2 26. Revenue and net income share one scale, so the gap between them is the margin. The line is GAAP EPS — it spans every quarter shown, where the reported figure only goes back as far as the consensus feed does.
| Quarter ending | Revenue | YoY | Net income | EPS (GAAP) | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 25.44bn | +6.7% | 781.00m | 1.71 | 2026-05-29 |
| 2026-01-31 (derived) | 30.45bn | -1.5% | 1.04bn | 2.29 | 2026-03-11 |
| 2025-11-01 | 25.27bn | -1.6% | 689.00m | 1.51 | 2025-11-26 |
| 2025-08-02 | 25.21bn | -0.9% | 935.00m | 2.05 | 2025-08-29 |
| 2025-05-03 | 23.85bn | -2.8% | 1.04bn | 2.27 | 2025-05-30 |
| 2025-02-01 (derived) | 30.91bn | — | 1.10bn | 2.39 | 2025-03-12 |
| 2024-11-02 | 25.67bn | +1.1% | 854.00m | 1.85 | 2024-11-27 |
| 2024-08-03 | 25.45bn | +2.7% | 1.19bn | 2.57 | 2024-08-30 |
| 2024-05-04 | 24.53bn | -3.1% | 942.00m | 2.03 | 2024-05-31 |
| 2023-10-28 | 25.40bn | — | 971.00m | 2.10 | 2023-11-22 |
| 2023-07-29 | 24.77bn | — | 835.00m | 1.81 | 2023-08-25 |
| 2023-04-29 | 25.32bn | — | 950.00m | 2.05 | 2023-05-26 |
Earnings response
| Typical move around a filing | ±3.7% |
|---|---|
| On an ordinary two days | ±1.6% — filings move it 2.3× as much |
| Direction | 5 up, 7 down over 12 filings |
Revenue up year on year Revenue down Price move around the filing separate scales — a crossing means nothing
| Quarter ending | Filed | Revenue YoY | Move around filing | Next 20 sessions vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 2026-05-29 | +6.7% | -3.8% | +6.9% |
| 2025-11-01 | 2025-11-26 | -1.6% | +4.7% | +7.3% |
| 2025-08-02 | 2025-08-29 | -0.9% | -4.5% | -7.3% |
| 2025-05-03 | 2025-05-30 | -2.8% | -1.6% | +6.8% |
| 2024-11-02 | 2024-11-27 | +1.1% | +4.6% | +4.1% |
| 2024-08-03 | 2024-08-30 | +2.7% | -1.1% | -3.0% |
| 2024-05-04 | 2024-05-31 | -3.1% | +2.1% | -9.3% |
| 2023-10-28 | 2023-11-22 | -4.2% | +0.5% | +2.2% |
| 2023-07-29 | 2023-08-25 | -4.9% | -0.5% | -7.8% |
| 2023-04-29 | 2023-05-26 | +0.6% | -4.9% | -5.3% |
| 2022-10-29 | 2022-11-23 | +3.4% | +3.5% | -8.0% |
| 2022-07-30 | 2022-08-26 | +3.5% | -5.3% | +2.9% |
Share count
Diluted shares Return since the previous filing
| Direction | Flat — little net change |
|---|---|
| Diluted shares | 455.8M as at 2026-05-02 |
| Change over 1 year | -0.2% |
| Change over 3 years | -1.5% |
| Public float | $45.28bn as at 2025-08-01 (10-K) |
The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑
Price Levels
| Strategy | Fair Value Anchor |
|---|---|
| Reference band | 142.74 — 154.77 |
| Protective stop | 139.37 (Atr, 6.3% risk) |
| Support | 127.47 (2 touches, 20.8% away) |
| Resistance | — (— away) |
Takeaway The shares are about 20.8% above 127.47, a price buyers have stepped in at before. There is no ceiling to point to, because the stock is trading where it has not traded before and nobody has sold it at these levels. That floor has held 2 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 6.3% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.
Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.
Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)
| Daily cloud | Price ABOVE the cloud | periods 8/22/44 (84% of classic 9/26/52) |
|---|---|
| Lines | Tenkan/Kijun BULL | cloud twist BULL |
| Cloud thickness | 98% percentile (thick — substantial structure) |
| Chikou span | Above price from 26 periods ago |
| Weekly cloud | Price ABOVE the weekly cloud (context only, not scored) |
Takeaway The stock is trading above its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 139.79 to 146.19. Being above it means the medium-term picture is pointing upwards, and that band is the first place the stock has recent support if it slips back. Its shorter-term averages agree with that. The band is unusually wide at the moment, so it marks a broad zone rather than a single level.
Trailing returns
| 21 days | +14.9% |
|---|---|
| 63 days | +26.4% |
| 126 days | +36.0% |
| 252 days | +48.1% |
| Below 252d high | 0.0% |
Trend context
| Position | Far above trend |
|---|---|
| Extension | Extremely extended |
| Trend slope | Rising |
| Direction of travel | Diverging from trend |
Takeaway Extreme upside extension is still moving away from fair trend; chase risk is elevated.
Volatility
| State | No recent compression |
|---|---|
| Current band width | 15.7% of price |
| Recent tightest | 14.1% (4 sessions ago, narrower than 25.0% of its history) |
| Expansion since | 1.11× |
| Band | 132.98 — 155.70 |
Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 16% wide. That is normal for this stock, so there is nothing unusual to read into it either way.
Historical trends
History begins when the site started recording, not when the company listed, so a short line means a short record and nothing more.
Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑
Insider activity
| Activity | No filings in the window |
|---|---|
| Buy filings | 0 |
| Sell filings | 0 |
Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.
Volume confirmation
| Volume-price trend | Above its signal line |
|---|---|
| Confirmation | Marginal |
No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.
Takeaway Slightly more shares change hands on rising days than on falling ones, but the gap is too small to read anything into.
Options Positioning
Binary-event risk flagged
TGT: binary-event risk suspected -- Term structure inverted (near 60% IV vs far 37% IV, ratio 1.62); Implied move 7.6% is 1.04x the ATR-expected 7.3% over 9d. Options market is pricing a discrete catalyst; technical breakout signals are unreliable until it resolves.
| Implied volatility | 60% near (9d) · 37% far (65d) — Term structure inverted — the market is pricing an event in the near window |
|---|---|
| Term structure | 1.62× near/far |
| Historical volatility | 24% |
| Implied vs historical | 2.57× — Options are priced well above what the stock has actually done |
| Implied move | ±7.6% by 2026-08-21 — Large relative to this stock's normal daily range |
| Implied move vs ATR | 1.04× |
| Skew | Flat (1.12×) |
| Call wall | 165.00 (+7.1% away) |
| Put wall | 125.00 (-18.8% away) |
| Gamma pin | 150.00 |
- Term structure inverted (near 60% IV vs far 37% IV, ratio 1.62)
- Implied move 7.6% is 1.04x the ATR-expected 7.3% over 9d
Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs more for the next few weeks than for the next few months. Traders usually pay up like that when they know something is coming soon — results, a court ruling, a regulatory decision. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 7.6% in either direction by 2026-08-21. The overall shape suggests they expect a one-off result that lands either well or badly, rather than a gradual drift.
Chain as at 2026-08-12. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.
Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑
Relative Rotation
Leadership Cooling
Rotation health 59.8/100; Mixed Rotation.
| Rotation health | 59.8 |
|---|---|
| Rotation strength | 71.8 |
| Leg | Quadrant | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock vs sector | Leading | 119.9 | 111.2 |
| Stock vs SPY | Weakening | 109.6 | 94.2 |
| Sector vs SPY | Lagging | 84.3 | 87.1 |
Direction of travel: South-East / trend strong but momentum cooling
Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.
News Headlines
- Loading headlines\u2026
Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.
Detailed Scoring
Positive signals
- Piotroski F-score 5/9 (+5.0)
- Altman Z-score 3.03 (+3.0)
- Insider conviction score (+3.0)
- Gross margin quality: 28.1% (+0.8)
- ROIC quality: 13.6% (+2.5)
- FCF margin quality: 6.3% (+1.9)
- FCF margin improving by -0.7 pts (+-1.0)
- High earnings quality (accrual ratio -0.048) (+1.0)
- Relative Strength 10.7% vs sector: OUTPERFORMING (+10.0)
- Track 2: MACD histogram state (0.70) (+8.0)
- Track 2: MACD line/signal trend quality (+15.0)
- Track 2: positive MACD trend regime (+10.0)
- Track 2: MACD slope expanding (+5.0)
- Track 2: relative strength trend improving (+10.0)
- Track 2: 20-day momentum acceleration 0.08 (+8.0)
- Track 2: bullish DI spread 32.8 (+15.0)
- Track 2: ADX 44.3 and rising (+18.0)
- Track 2: relative momentum rank 0.82 (+10.6)
- Track 2: Hidden Bullish MACD divergence (+12.0)
- Track 2: price above EMA20 by 6.1% (+5.1)
- Track 2: EMA20 slope expanding 2.8% (+7.5)
- Track 2: VPT strength 0.04 (+0.9)
- Track 2: price above EMA50 by 11.4% (+9.1)
- Track 2: EMA50 slope improving 4.1% (+6.0)
- Track 2: Bollinger position 0.93 (+7.4)
Negative signals
- Track 2: weak volume for momentum setup (0.80x average)
- Track 2: RSI deterioration/overheating 86.3, 5-day change +21.4
- Chase risk 58.6/100 (Elevated Chase Risk): RSI 86.3, EMA20 6.1%, EMA50 11.4%, BB 0.93, distribution 6.4/100
- Gross margin improving by -0.1 pts (+-1.0)
- ROIC improving by -1.7 pts (+-2.0)
- Track 2 structural exemption: structural score 13.2/100 below the 25 quality floor; this is an unowned speculative candidate, so the universal SELL gate was skipped and the Track 2 momentum/RRG grid was allowed to evaluate instead. Structural quality here is weak by design for this kind of candidate -- treat any resulting BUY as higher risk than a Track 1 signal.
- Chase risk 58.6/100 | Extension score 41.4/100 | Elevated Chase Risk