TKO
Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · +4.9% · range 176.49–224.96
The Businesswhat the company reports
Business & cash flow
| OCF / assets | 8.3% |
|---|---|
| FCF / revenue | 27.2% |
| Gross margin | 59.5% |
| ROIC | 5.9% |
| Forward P/E | 48.9 |
This company does not report capital expenditure in the standard filing tag, so free cash flow cannot be derived and FCF/assets is not shown — common for asset managers, REITs, insurers and utilities. OCF/assets is shown instead, and it is the other measure Brown Bear's testing found to survive. Assets are from the latest annual filing (FY2025).
Price vs Earnings growth
Forward EPS growth has outpaced trailing price return by +35.0pp
Confidence 95.0/100
Drivers
| Forward EPS growth | +39.9% |
|---|---|
| Trailing price return (1y) | +4.9% |
| Forward P/E compression | +28.5% |
Figures
| Trailing EPS | 2.85 |
|---|---|
| Forward EPS | 3.99 |
| Trailing P/E | 68.47 |
| Forward P/E | 48.94 |
Revisions
Rapidly Deteriorating (-13.6%, 10 dates)
Takeaway Earnings growth is outpacing price — consistent with the stock not yet fully reflecting its improving forward estimates.
Reported earnings
Revenue Net incomeEPS (GAAP) (-1.26–0.72, own scale) Derived Q4
12 quarters to Q1 26. Revenue and net income share one scale, so the gap between them is the margin. The baseline is zero — bars below it are losses. The line is GAAP EPS — it spans every quarter shown, where the reported figure only goes back as far as the consensus feed does.
| Quarter ending | Revenue | YoY | Net income | EPS (GAAP) | EPS reported | vs consensus | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | 1.60bn | +25.9% | 89.35m | 0.46 | 1.12 | -6.7% | 2026-05-06 |
| 2025-12-31 (derived) | 1.04bn | — | -2.38m | -0.01 | -0.08 | -126.3% | 2026-02-25 |
| 2025-09-30 | 1.12bn | +64.4% | 41.01m | 0.21 | 0.47 | -36.0% | 2025-11-05 |
| 2025-06-30 | 1.31bn | +53.7% | 98.36m | 0.49 | — | — | 2025-08-06 |
| 2025-03-31 | 1.27bn | +101.5% | 58.41m | 0.32 | — | — | 2025-05-08 |
| 2024-09-30 | 681.27m | +51.7% | 23.14m | 0.13 | — | — | 2024-11-06 |
| 2024-06-30 | 851.16m | +178.9% | 59.11m | 0.72 | — | — | 2024-08-08 |
| 2024-03-31 | 629.71m | +105.3% | -103.84m | -1.26 | — | — | 2024-05-08 |
| 2023-09-30 | 449.06m | +31.8% | -21.89m | -0.26 | — | — | 2023-11-07 |
| 2023-06-30 | 305.19m | — | — | — | — | — | 2024-08-08 |
| 2023-03-31 | 306.73m | — | — | — | — | — | 2024-05-08 |
| 2022-09-30 | 340.70m | — | — | — | — | — | 2023-11-07 |
Earnings response
| Typical move around a filing | ±0.8% |
|---|---|
| On an ordinary two days | ±1.5% — filings move it 0.6× as much |
| Direction | 3 up, 8 down over 11 filings |
Revenue up year on year Revenue down Price move around the filing separate scales — a crossing means nothing
| Quarter ending | Filed | Revenue YoY | Move around filing | Next 20 sessions vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-06 | +25.9% | +0.3% | +7.7% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-05 | +64.4% | -3.4% | +9.4% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-08-06 | +53.7% | -1.7% | +18.3% |
| 2025-03-31 | 2025-05-08 | +101.5% | -5.9% | -4.0% |
| 2024-09-30 | 2024-11-06 | +51.7% | -0.8% | +20.2% |
| 2024-06-30 | 2024-08-08 | +178.9% | +7.5% | -4.8% |
| 2024-03-31 | 2024-05-08 | +105.3% | -0.6% | +7.1% |
| 2023-09-30 | 2023-11-07 | +31.8% | -0.0% | -18.7% |
| 2023-06-30 | 2024-08-08 | — | +7.5% | -4.8% |
| 2023-03-31 | 2024-05-08 | — | -0.6% | +7.1% |
| 2022-09-30 | 2023-11-07 | — | -0.0% | -18.7% |
Share count
Diluted shares Return since the previous filing
| Direction | Growing — shares issued |
|---|---|
| Diluted shares | 194.6M as at 2026-03-31 |
| Change over 1 year | +7.2% |
| Public float | $13.65bn as at 2025-06-30 (10-K) |
History before 2024-09-30 is not shown. The share count jumps at that date by a ratio no ordinary issuance produces — a split whose factor is not in Brown Bear's split store — so earlier figures are on a different basis and cannot be compared with today's.
The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑
Price Levels
| Strategy | Current Price Reasonable |
|---|---|
| Reference band | 192.21 — 197.09 |
| Protective stop | 181.78 (Atr, 6.6% risk) |
| Support | 192.69 (3 touches, 1.3% away) |
| Resistance | 195.25 (0.1% away) |
Takeaway The shares are nearer the ceiling than the floor: about 0.1% below 195.25, where sellers have turned up before, and 1.3% above 192.69, where buyers have stepped in before. That floor has held 3 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 6.6% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.
Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.
Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)
| Daily cloud | Price INSIDE the cloud | periods 8/24/49 (93% of classic 9/26/52) |
|---|---|
| Lines | Tenkan/Kijun BEAR | cloud twist BEAR |
| Cloud thickness | 76% percentile |
| Chikou span | Above price from 26 periods ago |
| Weekly cloud | Price INSIDE the weekly cloud (context only, not scored) |
Takeaway The stock is trading inside its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 189.09 to 198.68. Inside the band those averages disagree with each other, so the indicator is not saying much either way. Its shorter-term averages agree with that. The band is unusually wide at the moment, so it marks a broad zone rather than a single level.
Trailing returns
| 21 days | +5.7% |
|---|---|
| 63 days | +6.4% |
| 126 days | -8.9% |
| 252 days | +8.4% |
| Below 252d high | 13.3% |
Trend context
| Position | Above trend |
|---|---|
| Extension | Extended |
| Trend slope | Flat |
| Direction of travel | Diverging from trend |
Takeaway The share price is above the level its own longer-run trend suggests is fair, and that fair level is going sideways. The gap between the two has been widening. Being stretched this far above trend measures how much room there is to fall back — it does not say the stock will stop rising.
Volatility
| State | Expanded out of a squeeze |
|---|---|
| Current band width | 9.0% of price |
| Recent tightest | 4.7% (4 sessions ago, narrower than 98.0% of its history) |
| Expansion since | 1.90× |
| Range broken | Up |
| Band | 176.80 — 193.46 |
Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 9% wide, and it recently went unusually quiet — calmer than it has been 98% of the time. It has started moving again since, swinging about 1.9 times as widely as during that quiet spell, and it broke upwards. A stock that has been quiet tends to make its next move look big by comparison, simply because the recent bar was low.
Historical trends
History begins when the site started recording, not when the company listed, so a short line means a short record and nothing more.
Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑
Insider activity
| Activity | No filings in the window |
|---|---|
| Buy filings | 0 |
| Sell filings | 0 |
Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.
Volume confirmation
| Volume-price trend | Above its signal line |
|---|---|
| Confirmation | Marginal |
No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.
Takeaway Slightly more shares change hands on rising days than on falling ones, but the gap is too small to read anything into.
Options Positioning
No binary-event flag
TKO: no binary-event flag. Near IV 41%, far IV 39% (ratio 1.07), implied move 5.2%.
| Implied volatility | 41% near (9d) · 39% far (65d) |
|---|---|
| Term structure | 1.07× near/far |
| Historical volatility | 20% |
| Implied vs historical | 2.05× — Options are priced well above what the stock has actually done |
| Implied move | ±5.2% by 2026-08-21 — Large relative to this stock's normal daily range |
| Implied move vs ATR | 0.65× |
| Skew | Put Skew (2.24×) |
| Call wall | 280.00 (+43.5% away) |
| Put wall | 175.00 (-10.3% away) |
| Gamma pin | 175.00 |
- Implied move 5.2% is 0.65x the ATR-expected 7.9% over 9d
Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs less for the next few weeks than for the next few months, which is the normal state of affairs and suggests no particular date is worrying anyone. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 5.2% in either direction by 2026-08-21.
Chain as at 2026-08-12. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.
Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑
Relative Rotation
Leadership Cooling
Rotation health 76.1/100; Strong Rotation Tailwind.
| Rotation health | 76.1 |
|---|---|
| Rotation strength | 61.4 |
| Leg | Quadrant | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock vs sector | Leading | 109.2 | 105.8 |
| Stock vs SPY | Leading | 117.5 | 112.9 |
| Sector vs SPY | Lagging | 95.6 | 91.2 |
Direction of travel: South-East / trend strong but momentum cooling
Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.
News Headlines
- Loading headlines\u2026
Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.
Detailed Scoring
Positive signals
- Piotroski F-score 6/9 (+15.0)
- Altman Z-score 6.19 (+10.0)
- Insider conviction score (+5.0)
- Gross margin quality: 59.5% (+14.5)
- ROIC quality: 5.9% (+0.8)
- FCF margin quality: 27.2% (+18.1)
- Gross margin improving by 13.2 pts (+5.0)
- ROIC improving by 5.7 pts (+5.0)
- FCF margin improving by 15.2 pts (+5.0)
- High earnings quality (accrual ratio -0.070) (+5.0)
- Accrual ratio improving (-0.04 -> -0.07) (+5.0)
- Relative Strength 7.8% vs sector: OUTPERFORMING (+10.0)
- Track 1: MACD histogram state (1.84) (+8.0)
- Track 1: relative strength trend improving (+5.0)
- Track 1: 20-day momentum acceleration 0.13 (+9.0)
- Track 1: bullish DI spread 27.3 (+8.0)
- Track 1: ADX 32.1 and falling (+4.0)
- Track 1: relative momentum rank 0.46 (+0.1)
- Track 1: EMA20 reclaim distance 3.9% (+4.9)
- Track 1: EMA20 slope improving 1.1% (+2.8)
- Track 1: MACD histogram acceleration 1.26 (+10.0)
- Track 1: MACD line/signal repair quality (+8.0)
- Track 1: MACD slope improving (+5.0)
- Track 1: VPT strength 0.05 (+1.0)
- Track 1: price above EMA50 by 2.5% (+1.6)
- Track 1: EMA50 support proximity 2.5% (+2.9)
- Track 1: EMA200 support proximity 1.9% (+5.6)
- Regime convergence: MOMENTUM_BREAKOUT_CONTINUATION confidence 84.9/100 (EMERGING) (+17.0)
Negative signals
- Track 1: weak volume confirmation (0.67x average)
- Track 1: RSI deterioration/extension 75.2, 5-day change +28.8
- Track 1: EMA50 slope deteriorating -0.7%
Chase risk is not elevated for this name, so extension penalties are omitted from the negative signals above.