TLRY
Some scores are at the bottom of their range
This score sits at the bottom of the 0–100 range. The underlying calculation was negative, so the displayed value is a floor, not a measurement of zero.
- Structural Score: displayed 0, underlying value -8.5
Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · -68.0% · range 3.88–21.00
The Businesswhat the company reports
Business & cash flow
| FCF / revenue | -7.6% |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 28.7% |
| ROIC | -3.0% |
| Forward P/E | 10.3 |
No annual filing with both total assets and a cash-flow figure is cached for this name, so neither validated measure can be computed. FCF/revenue is shown instead, which is not the validated measure.
Price vs Earnings growth
Trailing EPS is negative (-1.04), so a growth percentage does not exist — forward EPS of 0.45 implies a swing from loss to profit
Confidence 35.0/100
Drivers
| Trailing price return (1y) | -68.0% |
|---|
Figures
| Trailing EPS | -1.04 |
|---|---|
| Forward EPS | 0.45 |
| Forward P/E | 10.31 |
Revisions
Stable (+0.0%, 1 prior obs)
Takeaway Low data confidence (limited analyst coverage) — treat this section as informational only.
The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑
Price Levels
| Strategy | Fair Value Anchor |
|---|---|
| Reference band | 4.56 — 4.70 |
| Protective stop | 4.27 (Structure, 7.9% risk) |
| Support | 4.38 (3 touches, 5.9% away) |
| Resistance | 4.81 (3.7% away) |
Takeaway The shares are nearer the ceiling than the floor: about 3.7% below 4.81, where sellers have turned up before, and 5.9% above 4.38, where buyers have stepped in before. That floor has held 3 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 7.9% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.
Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.
Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)
| Daily cloud | Price ABOVE the cloud | periods 7/19/38 (74% of classic 9/26/52) |
|---|---|
| Lines | Tenkan/Kijun BEAR (fresh down cross, 1d ago) | cloud twist BULL |
| Cloud thickness | 28% percentile (thin — little structure to fight through) |
| Chikou span | Above price from 26 periods ago |
| Weekly cloud | Price BELOW the weekly cloud (context only, not scored) |
Takeaway The stock is trading above its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 4.31 to 4.52. Being above it means the medium-term picture is pointing upwards, and that band is the first place the stock has recent support if it slips back. Its shorter-term averages point the other way, so this is a mixed reading rather than a clear one.
Trailing returns
| 21 days | +15.1% |
|---|---|
| 63 days | -16.4% |
| 126 days | -40.7% |
| 252 days | -66.6% |
| Below 252d high | 77.9% |
Trend context
| Position | At trend |
|---|---|
| Extension | Normal |
| Trend slope | Rising strongly |
| Direction of travel | Holding its deviation |
Takeaway Price is near a rising Kalman fair trend, consistent with a healthy trend setup.
Volatility
| State | In a squeeze |
|---|---|
| Current band width | 14.7% of price |
| Recent tightest | 14.7% (0 sessions ago, narrower than 84.0% of its history) |
| Expansion since | 1.00× |
| Band | 4.27 — 4.95 |
Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 15% wide, and it recently went unusually quiet — calmer than it has been 84% of the time. When a stock goes quiet like this, its next move tends to look big by comparison. But quiet says nothing about which way it will go: Brown Bear tested calm-before-a-move as a reason to buy, and it did not work.
Historical trends
History begins when the site started recording, not when the company listed, so a short line means a short record and nothing more.
Repair Pathway
- Nearest Trigger Relative momentum rank back above 0.45 repair trigger repair engine identifies this as the nearest technical repair catalyst · Broadly stable
- Trigger 2 EMA20 continuation hold already above Track 2 pathway: price is above a rising EMA20; sustained hold would support momentum continuation · Broadly stable
- Trigger 3 Volume confirmation above 1.5x +0.50x volume confirmation would improve confidence in the pathway · Broadly stable
- Trigger 4 MACD histogram acceleration turns positive secondary repair secondary repair catalyst could add confirmation if the primary trigger develops · Broadly stable
- Trigger 5 EMA50 reclaim +1.2% gap is deteriorating · Broadly stable
Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑
Insider activity
| Activity | Insider buying |
|---|---|
| Buy filings | 3 |
| Sell filings | 0 |
| Shares bought | 15,000 |
| Value bought | $69.2k |
| Latest buy | 2026-08-06 |
| Filed | Insider | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | Bought Gendel MitchellGlobal General Counsel | 2,500 | $11,075 |
| 2026-08-04 | Bought Merton Carl AChief Financial Officer | 10,000 | $46,200 |
| 2026-08-03 | Bought FALTISCHEK DENISE MChief Strategy Officer | 2,500 | $11,950 |
Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.
Volume confirmation
| Volume-price trend | Above its signal line |
|---|---|
| Confirmation | Marginal |
No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.
Takeaway Slightly more shares change hands on rising days than on falling ones, but the gap is too small to read anything into.
Options Positioning
No binary-event flag
TLRY: no binary-event flag. Near IV 63%, far IV 72% (ratio 0.88), implied move 7.5%.
| Implied volatility | 63% near (8d) · 72% far (113d) |
|---|---|
| Term structure | 0.88× near/far |
| Historical volatility | 66% |
| Implied vs historical | 0.96× |
| Implied move | ±7.5% by 2026-09-04 |
| Implied move vs ATR | 0.50× |
| Skew | Call Skew (0.92×) |
| Call wall | 7.00 (+53.9% away) |
| Put wall | 4.00 (-12.0% away) |
| Gamma pin | 7.00 |
Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs less for the next few weeks than for the next few months, which is the normal state of affairs and suggests no particular date is worrying anyone. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 7.5% in either direction by 2026-09-04.
Chain as at 2026-08-27. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.
Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑
Relative Rotation
Mixed Rotation Phase
Rotation health 64.4/100; Positive Rotation.
| Rotation health | 64.4 |
|---|---|
| Rotation strength | 76.2 |
| Leg | Quadrant | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock vs sector | Weakening | 109.6 | 88.0 |
| Stock vs SPY | Weakening | 113.0 | 91.0 |
| Sector vs SPY | Leading | 113.2 | 117.8 |
Direction of travel: South-West / deteriorating rotation
Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.
News Headlines
- Loading headlines\u2026
Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.
Detailed Scoring
Positive signals
- Gross margin quality: 28.7% (+0.9)
- ROIC improving by 123.1 pts (+3.0)
- FCF margin improving by 4.0 pts (+1.0)
- High earnings quality (accrual ratio -0.022) (+1.0)
- Track 2: MACD line/signal trend quality (+8.7)
- Track 2: positive MACD trend regime (+5.8)
- Track 2: MACD slope expanding (+2.9)
- Track 2: relative strength trend improving (+9.5)
- Track 2: 20-day momentum acceleration 0.27 (+30.2)
- Track 2: bullish DI spread 6.5 (+2.9)
- Track 2: price above EMA20 by 0.6% (+0.3)
- Track 2: EMA20 slope expanding 2.0% (+3.1)
- Track 2: VPT strength 0.00 (+0.1)
- Track 2: Bollinger position 0.54 (+4.1)
Negative signals
- Track 2: weak volume for momentum setup (0.95x average)
- Track 2: weak/falling ADX (14.0, flat)
- Weak relative momentum rank (0.00)
- Track 2: RSI deterioration/overheating 54.5, 5-day change -11.1
- Track 2: price below EMA50 by 1.2%
- Below-average Altman Z-score (-2.03)
- Gross margin improving by -0.6 pts (+-0.9)
- Track 2 structural exemption: Z-Score -2.03 below the 1.8 insolvency-risk floor and structural score 0.0/100 below the 25 quality floor; this is an unowned speculative candidate, so the universal SELL gate was skipped and the Track 2 momentum/RRG grid was allowed to evaluate instead. Structural quality here is weak by design for this kind of candidate -- treat any resulting BUY as higher risk than a Track 1 signal.
Chase risk is not elevated for this name, so extension penalties are omitted from the negative signals above.