TOST

Toast ·Technology
35.58 live · 2026-08-27 14:53
30.0%
Brown Bear Score
16.6%
Business Conviction Score
44.4%
Position Health Score
66.8%
Chase Risk
Daily closes

Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · -15.7% · range 22.33–45.10

Score trends appear once the scores have been recorded on more than one trading day.

The Businesswhat the company reports

Business & cash flow

FCF / revenue
Gross margin 0.0%
ROIC 0.0%
Forward P/E 21.3

No annual filing with both total assets and a cash-flow figure is cached for this name, so neither validated measure can be computed. FCF/revenue is shown instead, which is not the validated measure.

Price vs Earnings growth

Forward EPS growth has outpaced trailing price return by +135.1pp

Confidence 95.0/100

Takeaway Earnings growth is outpacing price — consistent with the stock not yet fully reflecting its improving forward estimates.

The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑

Price Levels

StrategyWait For Pullback
Reference band 34.34 — 35.38
Protective stop 32.11 (Atr, 7.9% risk)
Support 28.14 (3 touches, 31.4% away)
Resistance (— away)

Takeaway The shares are about 31.4% above 28.14, a price buyers have stepped in at before. There is no ceiling to point to, because the stock is trading where it has not traded before and nobody has sold it at these levels. That floor has held 3 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 7.9% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.

Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.

Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)

Daily cloudPrice ABOVE the cloud | periods 9/26/52 (100% of classic 9/26/52)
LinesTenkan/Kijun BULL | cloud twist BULL
Cloud thickness100% percentile (thick — substantial structure)
Chikou spanAbove price from 26 periods ago
Weekly cloudPrice ABOVE the weekly cloud (context only, not scored)

Takeaway The stock is trading above its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 30.55 to 34.71. Being above it means the medium-term picture is pointing upwards, and that band is the first place the stock has recent support if it slips back. Its shorter-term averages agree with that. The band is unusually wide at the moment, so it marks a broad zone rather than a single level.

Trailing returns

21 days +14.3%
63 days +50.9%
126 days +37.9%
252 days -14.9%
Below 252d high18.0%

Trend context

PositionFar above trend
ExtensionExtremely extended
Trend slopeRising strongly
Direction of travelDiverging from trend

Takeaway Extreme upside extension is still moving away from fair trend; chase risk is elevated.

Volatility

State In a squeeze
Current band width15.2% of price
Recent tightest15.2% (0 sessions ago, narrower than 85.0% of its history)
Expansion since1.00×
Band 32.22 — 37.50

Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 15% wide, and it recently went unusually quiet — calmer than it has been 85% of the time. When a stock goes quiet like this, its next move tends to look big by comparison. But quiet says nothing about which way it will go: Brown Bear tested calm-before-a-move as a reason to buy, and it did not work.

Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑

Insider activity

ActivityInsider selling
Buy filings0
Sell filings15
Shares sold445,006
Value sold$15.8m
Latest sell2026-08-21
FiledInsiderSharesValue
2026-08-21 Sold Vassil JonathanChief Revenue Officer 85,280 $3,099,075
2026-08-19 Sold Vassil JonathanChief Revenue Officer 13,931 $501,697

Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.

Volume confirmation

Volume-price trend Above its signal line
Confirmation Marginal

No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.

Takeaway Slightly more shares change hands on rising days than on falling ones, but the gap is too small to read anything into.

Options Positioning

No binary-event flag

TOST: no binary-event flag. Near IV 41%, far IV 49% (ratio 0.85), implied move 4.9%.

Implied volatility 41% near (8d) · 49% far (85d)
Term structure 0.85× near/far
Historical volatility 35%
Implied vs historical 1.19×
Implied move ±4.9% by 2026-09-04
Implied move vs ATR 0.54×
Skew Flat (1.05×)
Call wall 42.00 (+18.0% away)
Put wall 35.00 (-1.6% away)
Gamma pin 35.00

Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs less for the next few weeks than for the next few months, which is the normal state of affairs and suggests no particular date is worrying anyone. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 4.9% in either direction by 2026-09-04.

Chain as at 2026-08-27. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.

Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑

Relative Rotation

ImprovingLeadingLaggingWeakeningvs sectorvs SPYsector vs SPYRS-Ratio →RS-Momentum →

Sector Headwind / Stock Mixed

Rotation health 66.6/100; Positive Rotation.

Rotation health 66.6
Rotation strength 80.6
LegQuadrantRS-RatioRS-Mom
Stock vs sector Leading 103.7 108.2
Stock vs SPY Weakening 106.9 94.3
Sector vs SPY Weakening 103.8 79.2

Direction of travel: North-East / strengthening leadership

Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.

News Headlines

  1. Loading headlines\u2026

Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.

Detailed Scoring

Positive signals

  • Piotroski F-score 5/9 (+5.0)
  • Altman Z-score 3.00 (+3.0)
  • High earnings quality (accrual ratio 0.000) (+1.0)
  • Relative Strength 8.5% vs sector: OUTPERFORMING (+9.5)
  • Track 2: MACD line/signal trend quality (+10.5)
  • Track 2: positive MACD trend regime (+5.8)
  • Track 2: MACD slope expanding (+1.2)
  • Track 2: relative strength trend improving (+9.5)
  • Track 2: bullish DI spread 12.5 (+7.6)
  • Track 2: ADX 40.9 and rising (+17.2)
  • Track 2: price above EMA20 by 6.6% (+3.2)
  • Track 2: EMA20 slope expanding 3.6% (+4.6)
  • Track 2: RSI trend quality 64.4, 5-day change +1.8 (+1.4)
  • Track 2: VPT strength 0.12 (+2.8)
  • Track 2: price above EMA50 by 15.5% (+7.0)
  • Track 2: EMA50 slope improving 6.2% (+3.5)
  • Track 2: Bollinger position 0.90 (+6.9)

Negative signals

  • Track 2: weak volume for momentum setup (0.98x average)
  • Track 2: negative 20-day momentum acceleration (-0.04)
  • Weak relative momentum rank (0.18)
  • Chase risk 66.8/100 (Exhaustion Risk): RSI 64.4, EMA20 6.6%, EMA50 15.5%, BB 0.90, distribution 8.4/100
  • FCF margin unavailable: revenue missing from fundamentals cache
  • Track 2 structural exemption: structural score 9.0/100 below the 25 quality floor; this is an unowned speculative candidate, so the universal SELL gate was skipped and the Track 2 momentum/RRG grid was allowed to evaluate instead. Structural quality here is weak by design for this kind of candidate -- treat any resulting BUY as higher risk than a Track 1 signal.
  • Chase risk 66.8/100 | Extension score 33.2/100 | Exhaustion Risk