TSCO
Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · -38.6% · range 29.14–62.65
The Businesswhat the company reports
Business & cash flow
| FCF / assets | 6.8% |
|---|---|
| OCF / assets | 15.0% |
| FCF / revenue | 10.5% |
| Gross margin | 36.5% |
| ROIC | 17.6% |
| Forward P/E | 17.8 |
FCF/assets and OCF/assets are the cash-flow measures Brown Bear's own testing found to survive; FCF/revenue is shown alongside for context. Assets are from the latest annual filing (FY2025).
Price vs Earnings growth
Forward EPS growth has outpaced trailing price return by +45.4pp
Confidence 95.0/100
Drivers
| Forward EPS growth | +6.8% |
|---|---|
| Trailing price return (1y) | -38.6% |
| Forward P/E compression | +3.5% |
Figures
| Trailing EPS | 1.92 |
|---|---|
| Forward EPS | 2.05 |
| Trailing P/E | 18.40 |
| Forward P/E | 17.76 |
Revisions
Stable (-0.2%, 10 dates)
Takeaway Earnings growth is outpacing price — consistent with the stock not yet fully reflecting its improving forward estimates.
Reported earnings
Revenue Net incomeEPS (GAAP) (0.31–0.81, own scale) Derived Q4
12 quarters to Q1 26. Revenue and net income share one scale, so the gap between them is the margin. The line is GAAP EPS — it spans every quarter shown, where the reported figure only goes back as far as the consensus feed does.
| Quarter ending | Revenue | YoY | Net income | EPS (GAAP) | EPS reported | vs consensus | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-28 | 3.59bn | +3.6% | 164.52m | 0.31 | 0.31 | -11.2% | 2026-05-07 |
| 2025-12-27 (derived) | 3.90bn | +3.3% | 227.41m | 0.43 | 0.43 | -8.9% | 2026-02-19 |
| 2025-09-27 | 3.72bn | +7.2% | 259.27m | 0.49 | 0.49 | -0.4% | 2025-11-06 |
| 2025-06-28 | 4.44bn | +4.5% | 430.04m | 0.81 | — | — | 2025-08-07 |
| 2025-03-29 | 3.47bn | +2.1% | 179.37m | 0.34 | — | — | 2025-05-08 |
| 2024-12-28 (derived) | 3.77bn | +3.1% | 236.41m | 0.44 | — | — | 2025-02-20 |
| 2024-09-28 | 3.47bn | +1.6% | 241.47m | 0.45 | — | — | 2024-11-07 |
| 2024-06-29 | 4.25bn | +1.5% | 425.20m | 0.79 | — | — | 2024-08-08 |
| 2024-03-30 | 3.39bn | — | 198.17m | 0.37 | — | — | 2024-05-09 |
| 2023-12-30 (derived) | 3.66bn | — | 247.90m | 0.45 | — | — | 2024-02-23 |
| 2023-09-30 | 3.41bn | — | 255.00m | 0.47 | — | — | 2023-11-09 |
| 2023-07-01 | 4.18bn | — | 421.23m | 0.77 | — | — | 2023-08-10 |
Earnings response
| Typical move around a filing | ±1.6% |
|---|---|
| On an ordinary two days | ±1.5% — filings move it 1.1× as much |
| Direction | 4 up, 7 down over 11 filings |
Revenue up year on year Revenue down Price move around the filing separate scales — a crossing means nothing
| Quarter ending | Filed | Revenue YoY | Move around filing | Next 20 sessions vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-28 | 2026-05-07 | +3.6% | -5.8% | -1.1% |
| 2025-09-27 | 2025-11-06 | +7.2% | +0.6% | -3.2% |
| 2025-06-28 | 2025-08-07 | +4.5% | -1.6% | -0.0% |
| 2025-03-29 | 2025-05-08 | +2.1% | +0.7% | -7.4% |
| 2024-09-28 | 2024-11-07 | +1.6% | -0.1% | -2.4% |
| 2024-06-29 | 2024-08-08 | +1.5% | +3.4% | +2.6% |
| 2024-03-30 | 2024-05-09 | +2.9% | +1.8% | -1.6% |
| 2023-09-30 | 2023-11-09 | +4.3% | -0.5% | +4.5% |
| 2023-07-01 | 2023-08-10 | +7.2% | -0.7% | -2.3% |
| 2023-04-01 | 2023-04-27 | +9.1% | -2.0% | -11.8% |
| 2022-09-24 | 2022-11-03 | +8.4% | -2.3% | +1.3% |
Share count
Diluted shares Return since the previous filing
| Direction | Shrinking — shares retired |
|---|---|
| Diluted shares | 528.1M as at 2026-03-28 |
| Change over 1 year | -1.1% |
| Change over 3 years | -4.7% |
| Public float | $22.00bn as at 2025-06-28 (10-K) |
Counts are restated for the 5:1 split of 2024-12-20, which would otherwise read as a share issuance.
The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑
Price Levels
| Strategy | Wait For Pullback |
|---|---|
| Reference band | 33.00 — 33.99 |
| Protective stop | 30.64 (Atr, 8.5% risk) |
| Support | 29.55 (6 touches, 23.3% away) |
| Resistance | 46.23 (26.9% away) |
Takeaway The shares are nearer the floor than the ceiling: about 23.3% above 29.55, a price buyers have stepped in at before, and 26.9% below 46.23, where sellers have turned up before. That floor has held 6 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 8.5% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.
Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.
Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)
| Daily cloud | Price ABOVE the cloud | periods 7/20/40 (77% of classic 9/26/52) |
|---|---|
| Lines | Tenkan/Kijun BULL | cloud twist BULL (fresh up, 3d ago) |
| Cloud thickness | 40% percentile |
| Chikou span | Above price from 26 periods ago |
| Weekly cloud | Price INSIDE the weekly cloud (context only, not scored) |
Takeaway The stock is trading above its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 32.80 to 33.96. Being above it means the medium-term picture is pointing upwards, and that band is the first place the stock has recent support if it slips back. Its shorter-term averages agree with that.
Trailing returns
| 21 days | +19.2% |
|---|---|
| 63 days | +19.1% |
| 126 days | -32.6% |
| 252 days | -38.8% |
| Below 252d high | 41.9% |
Trend context
| Position | Above trend |
|---|---|
| Extension | Normal |
| Trend slope | Rising |
| Direction of travel | Converging back to trend |
Takeaway The share price is above the level its own longer-run trend suggests is fair, and that fair level is climbing. The gap between the two has been closing. Neither is stretched far enough to stand out.
Volatility
| State | Expanded out of a squeeze |
|---|---|
| Current band width | 25.6% of price |
| Recent tightest | 7.9% (8 sessions ago, narrower than 95.0% of its history) |
| Expansion since | 3.24× |
| Range broken | Up |
| Band | 27.95 — 36.15 |
Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 26% wide, and it recently went unusually quiet — calmer than it has been 95% of the time. It has started moving again since, swinging about 3.2 times as widely as during that quiet spell, and it broke upwards. A stock that has been quiet tends to make its next move look big by comparison, simply because the recent bar was low.
Historical trends
History begins when the site started recording, not when the company listed, so a short line means a short record and nothing more.
Repair Pathway
- Nearest Trigger Volume confirmation above 1.2x +0.20x volume confirmation would improve confidence in the pathway · Broadly stable
- Trigger 2 Relative momentum rank back above 0.45 repair trigger repair engine identifies this as the nearest technical repair catalyst · Broadly stable
- Trigger 3 Relative momentum rank above 0.55 +0.52 rank relative momentum leadership is not yet strong enough for the next action tier · Broadly stable
Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑
Insider activity
| Activity | No filings in the window |
|---|---|
| Buy filings | 0 |
| Sell filings | 0 |
Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.
Volume confirmation
| Volume-price trend | Above its signal line |
|---|---|
| Confirmation | Moderate |
No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.
Takeaway More shares change hands on the days this stock rises than on the days it falls. That is what you would expect to see if the rise is being driven by real buying rather than drifting up on a thin market.
Options Positioning
No binary-event flag
TSCO: no binary-event flag. Near IV 34%, far IV 36% (ratio 0.97), implied move 4.3%.
| Implied volatility | 34% near (9d) · 36% far (65d) |
|---|---|
| Term structure | 0.97× near/far |
| Historical volatility | 33% |
| Implied vs historical | 1.04× |
| Implied move | ±4.3% by 2026-08-21 |
| Implied move vs ATR | 0.46× |
| Skew | Put Skew (1.25×) |
| Call wall | 60.00 (+64.7% away) |
| Gamma pin | 60.00 |
Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs less for the next few weeks than for the next few months, which is the normal state of affairs and suggests no particular date is worrying anyone. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 4.3% in either direction by 2026-08-21.
Chain as at 2026-08-12. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.
Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑
Relative Rotation
Leadership Cooling
Rotation health 87.4/100; Strong Rotation Tailwind.
| Rotation health | 87.4 |
|---|---|
| Rotation strength | 61.4 |
| Leg | Quadrant | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock vs sector | Weakening | 120.9 | 95.8 |
| Stock vs SPY | Leading | 123.0 | 110.1 |
| Sector vs SPY | Leading | 112.5 | 121.1 |
Direction of travel: South-East / trend strong but momentum cooling
Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.
News Headlines
- Loading headlines\u2026
Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.
Detailed Scoring
Positive signals
- Piotroski F-score 5/9 (+10.0)
- Altman Z-score 5.71 (+8.0)
- Insider conviction score (+20.0)
- Gross margin quality: 36.5% (+6.0)
- ROIC quality: 17.6% (+10.8)
- FCF margin quality: 10.5% (+7.0)
- High earnings quality (accrual ratio -0.049) (+2.0)
- Accrual ratio improving (-0.03 -> -0.05) (+5.0)
- Relative Strength 17.0% vs sector: OUTPERFORMING (+10.0)
- Track 1: MACD histogram state (0.54) (+6.0)
- Track 1: volume confirmation 1.34x average (+2.0)
- Track 1: relative strength trend improving (+5.0)
- Track 1: 20-day momentum acceleration 0.23 (+12.0)
- Track 1: bullish DI spread 35.4 (+8.0)
- Track 1: ADX 25.7 and rising (+5.0)
- Track 1: EMA20 slope improving 4.9% (+5.0)
- Track 1: MACD histogram acceleration 0.20 (+4.0)
- Track 1: positive MACD regime (+3.0)
- Track 1: MACD line/signal repair quality (+8.0)
- Track 1: MACD slope improving (+3.0)
- Track 1: VPT strength 0.28 (+5.7)
- Track 1: price above EMA50 by 12.2% (+5.0)
- Track 1: EMA50 slope improving 1.9% (+3.0)
- Regime convergence: VOLATILITY_SQUEEZE_BREAKOUT confidence 67.2/100 (EMERGING) (+13.4)
Negative signals
- Weak relative momentum rank (0.03)
- Track 1: RSI deterioration/extension 82.9, 5-day change +19.4
- Chase risk 55.3/100 (Elevated Chase Risk): RSI 82.9, EMA20 11.2%, EMA50 12.2%, BB 1.03, distribution 4.4/100
- ROIC improving by -2.0 pts (+-5.0)
- Chase risk 55.3/100 | Extension score 44.7/100 | Elevated Chase Risk