TSLA
Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · -3.9% · range 298.32–489.88
The Businesswhat the company reports
Business & cash flow
| FCF / assets | 4.5% |
|---|---|
| OCF / assets | 10.7% |
| FCF / revenue | 15.6% |
| Gross margin | 18.9% |
| ROIC | 5.3% |
| Forward P/E | 150.3 |
FCF/assets and OCF/assets are the cash-flow measures Brown Bear's own testing found to survive; FCF/revenue is shown alongside for context. Assets are from the latest annual filing (FY2025).
Price vs Earnings growth
Forward EPS growth has outpaced trailing price return by +111.5pp
Confidence 95.0/100
Drivers
| Forward EPS growth | +107.6% |
|---|---|
| Trailing price return (1y) | -3.9% |
| Forward P/E compression | +51.8% |
Figures
| Trailing EPS | 1.05 |
|---|---|
| Forward EPS | 2.18 |
| Trailing P/E | 311.91 |
| Forward P/E | 150.27 |
Revisions
Rapidly Deteriorating (-14.4%, 6 prior obs)
Takeaway Earnings growth is outpacing price — consistent with the stock not yet fully reflecting its improving forward estimates.
Reported earnings
Revenue Net incomeEPS (GAAP) (0.12–2.27, own scale) Derived Q4
12 quarters to Q2 26. Revenue and net income share one scale, so the gap between them is the margin. The line is GAAP EPS — it spans every quarter shown, where the reported figure only goes back as far as the consensus feed does.
| Quarter ending | Revenue | YoY | Net income | EPS (GAAP) | EPS reported | vs consensus | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | 28.24bn | +25.5% | 1.11bn | 0.31 | 0.33 | -36.4% | 2026-07-23 |
| 2026-03-31 | 22.39bn | +15.8% | 477.00m | 0.13 | 0.41 | +8.7% | 2026-04-23 |
| 2025-12-31 (derived) | 24.90bn | -3.1% | 840.00m | 0.24 | 0.50 | +10.1% | 2026-01-29 |
| 2025-09-30 | 28.09bn | +11.6% | 1.37bn | 0.39 | 0.50 | -10.5% | 2025-10-23 |
| 2025-06-30 | 22.50bn | -11.8% | 1.17bn | 0.33 | — | — | 2025-07-24 |
| 2025-03-31 | 19.34bn | -9.2% | 409.00m | 0.12 | — | — | 2025-04-23 |
| 2024-12-31 (derived) | 25.71bn | +2.1% | 2.32bn | 0.66 | — | — | 2025-01-30 |
| 2024-09-30 | 25.18bn | +7.8% | 2.17bn | 0.62 | — | — | 2024-10-24 |
| 2024-06-30 | 25.50bn | — | 1.48bn | 0.42 | — | — | 2024-07-24 |
| 2024-03-31 | 21.30bn | — | 1.13bn | 0.32 | — | — | 2024-04-24 |
| 2023-12-31 (derived) | 25.17bn | — | 7.93bn | 2.27 | — | — | 2024-01-29 |
| 2023-09-30 | 23.35bn | — | 1.85bn | 0.53 | — | — | 2023-10-23 |
Earnings response
| Typical move around a filing | ±4.3% |
|---|---|
| On an ordinary two days | ±3.0% — filings move it 1.4× as much |
| Direction | 6 up, 6 down over 12 filings |
Revenue up year on year Revenue down Price move around the filing separate scales — a crossing means nothing
| Quarter ending | Filed | Revenue YoY | Move around filing | Next 20 sessions vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-23 | +25.5% | -16.3% | — |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-04-23 | +15.8% | -2.9% | +8.8% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-10-23 | +11.6% | -1.2% | -7.1% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-07-24 | -11.8% | -5.0% | +6.3% |
| 2025-03-31 | 2025-04-23 | -9.2% | +9.1% | +24.8% |
| 2024-09-30 | 2024-10-24 | +7.8% | +26.0% | +28.1% |
| 2024-06-30 | 2024-07-24 | +2.3% | -10.6% | -7.7% |
| 2024-03-31 | 2024-04-24 | -8.7% | +17.6% | -2.4% |
| 2023-09-30 | 2023-10-23 | +8.8% | +2.1% | +4.4% |
| 2023-06-30 | 2023-07-24 | +47.2% | +2.0% | -8.3% |
| 2023-03-31 | 2023-04-24 | +24.4% | -2.7% | +13.6% |
| 2022-09-30 | 2022-10-24 | +55.9% | +3.7% | -27.5% |
Share count
Diluted shares Return since the previous filing
| Direction | Flat — little net change |
|---|---|
| Diluted shares | 3,540.0M as at 2026-06-30 |
| Change over 1 year | +0.6% |
| Change over 3 years | +1.8% |
| Public float | $892.93bn as at 2025-06-30 (10-K) |
The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑
Price Levels
| Strategy | Current Price Reasonable |
|---|---|
| Reference band | 322.60 — 330.79 |
| Protective stop | 300.15 (Atr, 8.1% risk) |
| Support | — (0 touches, — away) |
| Resistance | 412.11 (25.8% away) |
Takeaway The shares are about 25.8% below 412.11, where sellers have turned up before. There is no floor to point to in the recent record. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 8.1% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.
Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.
Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)
| Daily cloud | Price BELOW the cloud | periods 9/25/49 (95% of classic 9/26/52) |
|---|---|
| Lines | Tenkan/Kijun BEAR | cloud twist BEAR |
| Cloud thickness | 98% percentile (thick — substantial structure) |
| Chikou span | Not clear of price from 26 periods ago |
| Weekly cloud | Price BELOW the weekly cloud (context only, not scored) |
Takeaway The stock is trading below its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 339.14 to 365.49. Being below it means the medium-term picture is pointing downwards, and that band is the first hurdle it would have to climb back through. Its shorter-term averages agree with that. The band is unusually wide at the moment, so it marks a broad zone rather than a single level.
Trailing returns
| 21 days | -17.3% |
|---|---|
| 63 days | -24.4% |
| 126 days | -23.0% |
| 252 days | -3.4% |
| Below 252d high | 33.1% |
Trend context
| Position | Above trend |
|---|---|
| Extension | Normal |
| Trend slope | Flat |
| Direction of travel | Diverging from trend |
Takeaway The share price is above the level its own longer-run trend suggests is fair, and that fair level is going sideways. The gap between the two has been widening. Neither is stretched far enough to stand out.
Volatility
| State | No recent compression |
|---|---|
| Current band width | 34.1% of price |
| Recent tightest | 34.1% (0 sessions ago, narrower than 10.0% of its history) |
| Expansion since | 1.00× |
| Band | 276.77 — 390.48 |
Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 34% wide. That is normal for this stock, so there is nothing unusual to read into it either way.
Historical trends
History begins when the site started recording, not when the company listed, so a short line means a short record and nothing more.
Repair Pathway
- Nearest Trigger Positive 20-day momentum acceleration repair trigger repair engine identifies this as the nearest technical repair catalyst · Broadly stable
- Trigger 2 EMA20 reclaim +3.0% gap is improving · Broadly stable
- Trigger 3 Relative momentum rank back above 0.45 secondary repair secondary repair catalyst could add confirmation if the primary trigger develops · Broadly stable
- Trigger 4 Volume confirmation above 1.5x +0.50x volume confirmation would improve confidence in the pathway · Broadly stable
- Trigger 5 EMA50 reclaim +10.8% gap is improving · Broadly stable
Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑
Insider activity
| Activity | No filings in the window |
|---|---|
| Buy filings | 0 |
| Sell filings | 0 |
Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.
Volume confirmation
| Volume-price trend | Below its signal line |
|---|---|
| Confirmation | Marginal |
No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.
Takeaway The heaviest trading has been happening on days when the price falls: when large numbers of shares change hands, the price has tended to go down rather than up. That tells you where the weight of trading has been. It does not tell you what happens next, and it is not a signal to sell.
Options Positioning
No binary-event flag
TSLA: no binary-event flag. Near IV 35%, far IV 40% (ratio 0.87), implied move 3.8%.
| Implied volatility | 35% near (7d) · 40% far (65d) |
|---|---|
| Term structure | 0.87× near/far |
| Historical volatility | 61% |
| Implied vs historical | 0.57× |
| Implied move | ±3.8% by 2026-08-19 |
| Implied move vs ATR | 0.45× |
| Skew | Flat (0.99×) |
Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs less for the next few weeks than for the next few months, which is the normal state of affairs and suggests no particular date is worrying anyone. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 3.8% in either direction by 2026-08-19.
Chain as at 2026-08-12. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.
Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑
Relative Rotation
Early Stock Rotation
Rotation health 90.7/100; Strong Rotation Tailwind.
| Rotation health | 90.7 |
|---|---|
| Rotation strength | 84.5 |
| Leg | Quadrant | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock vs sector | Improving | 93.6 | 121.6 |
| Stock vs SPY | Improving | 95.3 | 123.0 |
| Sector vs SPY | Leading | 112.5 | 121.1 |
Direction of travel: North-East / strengthening leadership
Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.
News Headlines
- Loading headlines\u2026
Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.
Detailed Scoring
Positive signals
- Piotroski F-score 5/9 (+5.0)
- Altman Z-score 15.89 (+6.0)
- Insider conviction score (+3.0)
- ROIC quality: 5.3% (+0.1)
- FCF margin quality: 15.6% (+4.7)
- High earnings quality (accrual ratio -0.079) (+2.0)
- Accrual ratio improving (-0.06 -> -0.08) (+2.0)
- Track 2: MACD histogram state (3.33) (+12.0)
- Track 2: MACD line/signal trend quality (+18.0)
- Track 2: MACD slope expanding (+8.0)
- Track 2: relative strength trend improving (+10.0)
- Track 2: bullish DI spread 3.8 (+3.0)
- Track 2: ADX 61.5 and flat (+15.0)
- Track 2: MACD histogram acceleration 4.63 (+12.0)
- Track 2: RSI trend quality 55.1, 5-day change +28.8 (+12.0)
- Track 2: Bollinger position 0.45 (+3.6)
Negative signals
- Underperforming sector over 20 days
- Track 2: negative MACD regime (-8.0)
- Track 2: weak volume for momentum setup (0.71x average)
- Track 2: negative 20-day momentum acceleration (-0.13)
- Weak relative momentum rank (0.28)
- Track 2: price below EMA20 by 3.0%
- Track 2: EMA20 slope deteriorating -1.7%
- Track 2: weak VPT confirmation (-0.02)
- Track 2: price below EMA50 by 9.8%
- Track 2: EMA50 slope deteriorating -5.0%
- ROIC improving by -4.7 pts (+-2.0)
- Track 2 structural exemption: structural score 20.8/100 below the 25 quality floor; this is an unowned speculative candidate, so the universal SELL gate was skipped and the Track 2 momentum/RRG grid was allowed to evaluate instead. Structural quality here is weak by design for this kind of candidate -- treat any resulting BUY as higher risk than a Track 1 signal.
Chase risk is not elevated for this name, so extension penalties are omitted from the negative signals above.