TSM
Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · +75.0% · range 228.39–477.57
Score trends appear once the scores have been recorded on more than one trading day.
The Businesswhat the company reports
Business & cash flow
| FCF / revenue | — |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 0.0% |
| ROIC | 0.0% |
| Forward P/E | 19.2 |
No annual filing with both total assets and a cash-flow figure is cached for this name, so neither validated measure can be computed. FCF/revenue is shown instead, which is not the validated measure.
Price vs Earnings growth
Price has run ahead of forward EPS growth by 13.0pp
Confidence 95.0/100
Drivers
| Forward EPS growth | +61.9% |
|---|---|
| Trailing price return (1y) | +75.0% |
| Forward P/E compression | +38.2% |
Figures
| Trailing EPS | 13.45 |
|---|---|
| Forward EPS | 21.78 |
| Trailing P/E | 31.06 |
| Forward P/E | 19.18 |
Takeaway Price has moved further than forward earnings growth currently justifies — worth weighing against the rest of the entry case.
The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑
Price Levels
| Strategy | At Support Zone |
|---|---|
| Reference band | 402.15 — 414.34 |
| Protective stop | 387.41 (Atr, 5.1% risk) |
| Support | 406.22 (3 touches, 2.8% away) |
| Resistance | 422.03 (1.0% away) |
Takeaway The shares are nearer the ceiling than the floor: about 1.0% below 422.03, where sellers have turned up before, and 2.8% above 406.22, where buyers have stepped in before. That floor has held 3 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 5.1% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.
Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.
Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)
| Daily cloud | Price INSIDE the cloud | periods 9/26/52 (100% of classic 9/26/52) |
|---|---|
| Lines | Tenkan/Kijun BULL | cloud twist BEAR |
| Cloud thickness | 41% percentile |
| Chikou span | Not clear of price from 26 periods ago |
| Weekly cloud | Price ABOVE the weekly cloud (context only, not scored) |
Takeaway The stock is trading inside its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 417.65 to 425.86. Inside the band those averages disagree with each other, so the indicator is not saying much either way. Its shorter-term averages point the other way, so this is a mixed reading rather than a clear one.
Trailing returns
| 21 days | +6.5% |
|---|---|
| 63 days | -1.2% |
| 126 days | +7.7% |
| 252 days | +77.3% |
| Below 252d high | 12.5% |
Trend context
| Position | Far above trend |
|---|---|
| Extension | Extremely extended |
| Trend slope | Rising |
| Direction of travel | Diverging from trend |
Takeaway Extreme upside extension is still moving away from fair trend; chase risk is elevated.
Volatility
| State | In a squeeze |
|---|---|
| Current band width | 7.7% of price |
| Recent tightest | 7.7% (0 sessions ago, narrower than 99.0% of its history) |
| Expansion since | 1.00× |
| Band | 401.31 — 433.31 |
Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 8% wide, and it recently went unusually quiet — calmer than it has been 99% of the time. When a stock goes quiet like this, its next move tends to look big by comparison. But quiet says nothing about which way it will go: Brown Bear tested calm-before-a-move as a reason to buy, and it did not work.
Repair Pathway
- Nearest Trigger Relative momentum leadership holds already satisfied Track 2 pathway: relative momentum leadership is already present; maintaining it supports upgrade pressure · Broadly stable
- Trigger 2 MACD bullish crossover repair trigger repair engine identifies this as the nearest technical repair catalyst · Broadly stable
- Trigger 3 MACD histogram above zero 0.05 gap is broadly stable · Broadly stable
- Trigger 4 RSI recovery above 50 +0.4 pts gap is broadly stable · Broadly stable
- Trigger 5 MACD histogram acceleration turns positive secondary repair secondary repair catalyst could add confirmation if the primary trigger develops · Improving
Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑
Insider activity
| Activity | Insider buying |
|---|---|
| Buy filings | 12 |
| Sell filings | 0 |
| Shares bought | 2,940 |
| Value bought | $217.3k |
| Latest buy | 2026-08-19 |
| Filed | Insider | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Bought Yuan LipenVP | 1,000 | $73,770 |
| 2026-08-18 | Bought Yuan LipenVP | 1,000 | $74,500 |
| 2026-08-18 | Bought Yuan LipenVP | 350 | $25,753 |
| 2026-08-07 | Bought Yeap Choh FeiSVP | 57 | $4,179 |
| 2026-08-07 | Bought Zhang Kevin XiaoqiangSVP and Deputy Co-COO | 63 | $4,619 |
| 2026-08-07 | Bought Yuan LipenVP | 42 | $3,079 |
Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.
Volume confirmation
| Volume-price trend | Below its signal line |
|---|---|
| Confirmation | Marginal |
No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.
Takeaway The heaviest trading has been happening on days when the price falls: when large numbers of shares change hands, the price has tended to go down rather than up. That tells you where the weight of trading has been. It does not tell you what happens next, and it is not a signal to sell.
Options Positioning
No binary-event flag
TSM: no binary-event flag. Near IV 33%, far IV 37% (ratio 0.88), implied move 3.9%.
| Implied volatility | 33% near (8d) · 37% far (85d) |
|---|---|
| Term structure | 0.88× near/far |
| Historical volatility | 24% |
| Implied vs historical | 1.38× |
| Implied move | ±3.9% by 2026-09-04 |
| Implied move vs ATR | 0.71× |
| Skew | Flat (1.00×) |
| Call wall | 425.00 (+0.1% away) |
| Put wall | 350.00 (-17.6% away) |
| Gamma pin | 425.00 |
Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs less for the next few weeks than for the next few months, which is the normal state of affairs and suggests no particular date is worrying anyone. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 3.9% in either direction by 2026-09-04.
Chain as at 2026-08-27. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.
Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑
Relative Rotation
Sector Headwind / Stock Mixed
Rotation health 71.3/100; Positive Rotation.
| Rotation health | 71.3 |
|---|---|
| Rotation strength | 77.2 |
| Leg | Quadrant | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock vs sector | Leading | 120.6 | 118.4 |
| Stock vs SPY | Weakening | 112.5 | 94.3 |
| Sector vs SPY | Weakening | 103.8 | 79.2 |
Direction of travel: North-East / strengthening leadership
Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.
News Headlines
- Loading headlines\u2026
Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.
Detailed Scoring
Positive signals
- Piotroski F-score 5/9 (+5.0)
- Altman Z-score 3.00 (+3.0)
- High earnings quality (accrual ratio 0.000) (+1.0)
- Track 2: relative strength trend improving (+9.5)
- Track 2: 20-day momentum acceleration 0.33 (+30.2)
- Track 2: ADX 20.8 and flat (+4.8)
- Track 2: relative momentum rank 0.92 (+13.4)
- Track 2: price above EMA20 by 0.1% (+0.1)
- Track 2: price above EMA50 by 0.2% (+0.1)
- Track 2: EMA50 slope improving 0.2% (+0.3)
- Track 2: Bollinger position 0.51 (+3.9)
- Regime convergence: SUPPORT_RESISTANCE_BOUNCE confidence 60.0/100 (EMERGING) (+12.0)
Negative signals
- Track 2: weak MACD line/signal structure (-7.0)
- Track 2: negative MACD regime (-3.7)
- Track 2: weak volume for momentum setup (0.70x average)
- Track 2: bearish DI spread (-0.9)
- Track 2: EMA20 slope deteriorating -0.2%
- Track 2: MACD histogram deteriorating (-1.06)
- Track 2: RSI deterioration/overheating 49.6, 5-day change -7.2
- Track 2: weak VPT confirmation (-0.00)
- FCF margin unavailable: revenue missing from fundamentals cache
- Track 2 structural exemption: structural score 9.0/100 below the 25 quality floor; this is an unowned speculative candidate, so the universal SELL gate was skipped and the Track 2 momentum/RRG grid was allowed to evaluate instead. Structural quality here is weak by design for this kind of candidate -- treat any resulting BUY as higher risk than a Track 1 signal.
Chase risk is not elevated for this name, so extension penalties are omitted from the negative signals above.