TWST
Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · +441.3% · range 24.16–151.42
The Businesswhat the company reports
Business & cash flow
| FCF / assets | -11.8% |
|---|---|
| OCF / assets | -7.4% |
| FCF / revenue | -12.6% |
| Gross margin | 52.0% |
| ROIC | -24.8% |
| Forward P/E | -236.9 |
FCF/assets and OCF/assets are the cash-flow measures Brown Bear's own testing found to survive; FCF/revenue is shown alongside for context. Assets are from the latest annual filing (FY2025).
Price vs Earnings growth
Trailing EPS is negative (-2.21) and forward EPS is not positive, so a growth percentage does not exist
Confidence 35.0/100
Drivers
| Trailing price return (1y) | +441.3% |
|---|
Figures
| Trailing EPS | -2.21 |
|---|---|
| Forward EPS | -0.63 |
| Forward P/E | -236.94 |
Revisions
Strongly Improving (+25.5%, 10 dates)
Takeaway Low data confidence (limited analyst coverage) — treat this section as informational only.
Share count
Diluted shares Return since the previous filing
| Direction | Growing — shares issued |
|---|---|
| Diluted shares | 61.1M as at 2025-12-31 |
| Change over 1 year | +6.2% |
| Public float | $2.32bn as at 2025-03-31 (10-K) |
The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑
Price Levels
| Strategy | Fair Value Anchor |
|---|---|
| Reference band | 123.72 — 150.81 |
| Protective stop | 115.31 (Atr, 16.0% risk) |
| Support | 81.07 (2 touches, 85.1% away) |
| Resistance | — (— away) |
Takeaway The shares are about 85.1% above 81.07, a price buyers have stepped in at before. There is no ceiling to point to, because the stock is trading where it has not traded before and nobody has sold it at these levels. That floor has held 2 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 16.0% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.
Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.
Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)
| Daily cloud | Price ABOVE the cloud | periods 7/21/43 (82% of classic 9/26/52) |
|---|---|
| Lines | Tenkan/Kijun BULL | cloud twist BULL |
| Cloud thickness | 52% percentile |
| Chikou span | Above price from 26 periods ago |
| Weekly cloud | Price ABOVE the weekly cloud (context only, not scored) |
Takeaway The stock is trading above its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 117.78 to 125.92. Being above it means the medium-term picture is pointing upwards, and that band is the first place the stock has recent support if it slips back. Its shorter-term averages agree with that.
Trailing returns
| 21 days | +69.5% |
|---|---|
| 63 days | +133.8% |
| 126 days | +202.7% |
| 252 days | +447.9% |
| Below 252d high | 0.9% |
Trend context
| Position | Far above trend |
|---|---|
| Extension | Extremely extended |
| Trend slope | Rising |
| Direction of travel | Holding its deviation |
Takeaway Extreme upside extension above Kalman fair trend; entry risk is elevated.
Volatility
| State | No recent compression |
|---|---|
| Current band width | 59.7% of price |
| Recent tightest | 56.9% (9 sessions ago, narrower than 8.0% of its history) |
| Expansion since | 1.05× |
| Band | 85.85 — 158.89 |
Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 60% wide. That is normal for this stock, so there is nothing unusual to read into it either way.
Historical trends
History begins when the site started recording, not when the company listed, so a short line means a short record and nothing more.
Repair Pathway
- Nearest Trigger Relative momentum leadership holds already satisfied Track 2 pathway: relative momentum leadership is already present; maintaining it supports upgrade pressure · Broadly stable
- Trigger 2 EMA20 continuation hold already above Track 2 pathway: price is above a rising EMA20; sustained hold would support momentum continuation · Broadly stable
- Trigger 3 Volume confirmation above 1.5x +0.50x volume confirmation would improve confidence in the pathway · Broadly stable
Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑
Insider activity
| Activity | Insider selling |
|---|---|
| Buy filings | 0 |
| Sell filings | 17 |
| Shares sold | 131,883 |
| Value sold | $16.2m |
| Latest sell | 2026-08-24 |
| Filed | Insider | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Sold WERNER ROBERT F.Chief Accounting Officer | 854 | $120,220 |
| 2026-08-21 | Sold Cho DennisSee Remarks | 1,598 | $222,227 |
| 2026-08-21 | Sold Finn Patrick JohnPresident and COO | 4,046 | $562,661 |
| 2026-08-21 | Sold Green PaulaSVP of Human Resources | 1,360 | $189,130 |
| 2026-08-21 | Sold Laponis AdamChief Financial Officer | 1,965 | $273,265 |
| 2026-08-21 | Sold Leproust Emily M.Chief Executive Officer | 6,639 | $923,259 |
Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.
Volume confirmation
| Volume-price trend | Above its signal line |
|---|---|
| Confirmation | Marginal |
No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.
Takeaway Slightly more shares change hands on rising days than on falling ones, but the gap is too small to read anything into.
Options Positioning
No binary-event flag
TWST: no binary-event flag. Near IV 90%, far IV 46% (ratio 1.97), implied move 17.9%.
| Implied volatility | 90% near (23d) · 46% far (142d) — Term structure inverted — the market is pricing an event in the near window |
|---|---|
| Term structure | 1.97× near/far |
| Historical volatility | 120% |
| Implied vs historical | 0.75× |
| Implied move | ±17.9% by 2026-09-18 |
| Implied move vs ATR | 0.64× |
| Skew | Call Skew (0.82×) |
| Call wall | 165.00 (+10.0% away) |
| Put wall | 70.00 (-53.4% away) |
| Gamma pin | 105.00 |
- Term structure inverted (near 90% IV vs far 46% IV, ratio 1.97)
Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs more for the next few weeks than for the next few months. Traders usually pay up like that when they know something is coming soon — results, a court ruling, a regulatory decision. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 17.9% in either direction by 2026-09-18.
Chain as at 2026-08-26. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.
Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑
Relative Rotation
Mixed Rotation Phase
Rotation health 65.4/100; Positive Rotation.
| Rotation health | 65.4 |
|---|---|
| Rotation strength | 82.0 |
| Leg | Quadrant | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock vs sector | Weakening | 116.1 | 79.3 |
| Stock vs SPY | Weakening | 118.7 | 82.2 |
| Sector vs SPY | Leading | 113.2 | 117.8 |
Direction of travel: South-West / deteriorating rotation
Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.
News Headlines
- Loading headlines\u2026
Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.
Detailed Scoring
Positive signals
- Altman Z-score 43.78 (+6.0)
- Insider conviction score (+5.0)
- Gross margin quality: 52.0% (+3.2)
- Gross margin improving by 9.4 pts (+1.0)
- ROIC improving by 7.6 pts (+2.0)
- FCF margin improving by 7.8 pts (+2.0)
- High earnings quality (accrual ratio -0.047) (+1.0)
- Relative Strength 58.2% vs sector: OUTPERFORMING (+10.0)
- Track 2: MACD histogram state (2.46) (+12.0)
- Track 2: MACD line/signal trend quality (+15.0)
- Track 2: positive MACD trend regime (+10.0)
- Track 2: MACD slope expanding (+8.0)
- Track 2: relative strength trend improving (+10.0)
- Track 2: 20-day momentum acceleration 0.92 (+20.0)
- Track 2: bullish DI spread 27.8 (+12.0)
- Track 2: ADX 69.7 and rising (+18.0)
- Track 2: relative momentum rank 0.99 (+15.0)
- Track 2: price above EMA20 by 19.3% (+10.0)
- Track 2: EMA20 slope expanding 11.3% (+8.0)
- Track 2: MACD histogram acceleration 0.46 (+4.0)
- Track 2: VPT strength 0.10 (+2.3)
- Track 2: price above EMA50 by 40.7% (+12.0)
- Track 2: EMA50 slope improving 15.9% (+6.0)
- Track 2: Bollinger position 0.88 (+7.0)
Negative signals
- Track 2: weak volume for momentum setup (0.66x average)
- Track 2: RSI deterioration/overheating 70.7, 5-day change -4.9
- Chase risk 82.5/100 (Blowoff Distribution Risk): RSI 70.7, EMA20 19.3%, EMA50 40.7%, BB 0.88, distribution 11.5/100
- Track 2 structural exemption: structural score 20.2/100 below the 25 quality floor; this is an unowned speculative candidate, so the universal SELL gate was skipped and the Track 2 momentum/RRG grid was allowed to evaluate instead. Structural quality here is weak by design for this kind of candidate -- treat any resulting BUY as higher risk than a Track 1 signal.
- Chase risk 82.5/100 | Extension score 17.5/100 | Blowoff Distribution Risk