UPST
Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · -55.8% · range 24.22–73.76
Score trends appear once the scores have been recorded on more than one trading day.
The Businesswhat the company reports
Business & cash flow
| FCF / revenue | — |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 0.0% |
| ROIC | 0.0% |
| Forward P/E | 8.9 |
No annual filing with both total assets and a cash-flow figure is cached for this name, so neither validated measure can be computed. FCF/revenue is shown instead, which is not the validated measure.
Price vs Earnings growth
Forward EPS growth has outpaced trailing price return by +610.2pp
Confidence 95.0/100
Drivers
| Forward EPS growth | +554.5% |
|---|---|
| Trailing price return (1y) | -55.8% |
| Forward P/E compression | +84.7% |
Figures
| Trailing EPS | 0.52 |
|---|---|
| Forward EPS | 3.40 |
| Trailing P/E | 58.60 |
| Forward P/E | 8.95 |
Takeaway Earnings growth is outpacing price — consistent with the stock not yet fully reflecting its improving forward estimates.
The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑
Price Levels
| Strategy | Current Price Reasonable |
|---|---|
| Reference band | 30.01 — 30.77 |
| Protective stop | 26.58 (Atr, 12.6% risk) |
| Support | 29.92 (2 touches, 1.8% away) |
| Resistance | 31.50 (3.4% away) |
Takeaway The shares are nearer the floor than the ceiling: about 1.8% above 29.92, a price buyers have stepped in at before, and 3.4% below 31.50, where sellers have turned up before. That floor has held 2 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 12.6% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.
Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.
Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)
| Daily cloud | Price INSIDE the cloud | periods 9/25/51 (98% of classic 9/26/52) |
|---|---|
| Lines | Tenkan/Kijun BEAR | cloud twist BEAR |
| Cloud thickness | 49% percentile |
| Chikou span | Above price from 26 periods ago |
| Weekly cloud | Price BELOW the weekly cloud (context only, not scored) |
Takeaway The stock is trading inside its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 29.70 to 31.39. Inside the band those averages disagree with each other, so the indicator is not saying much either way. Its shorter-term averages agree with that.
Trailing returns
| 21 days | +9.5% |
|---|---|
| 63 days | -0.8% |
| 126 days | +7.1% |
| 252 days | -55.9% |
| Below 252d high | 58.7% |
Trend context
| Position | At trend |
|---|---|
| Extension | Normal |
| Trend slope | Falling |
| Direction of travel | Holding its deviation |
Takeaway The share price is close to the level its own longer-run trend suggests is fair, and that fair level is drifting down. The gap between the two has been fairly steady. Neither is stretched far enough to stand out.
Volatility
| State | In a squeeze |
|---|---|
| Current band width | 14.2% of price |
| Recent tightest | 14.2% (0 sessions ago, narrower than 99.0% of its history) |
| Expansion since | 1.00× |
| Band | 27.66 — 31.88 |
Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 14% wide, and it recently went unusually quiet — calmer than it has been 99% of the time. When a stock goes quiet like this, its next move tends to look big by comparison. But quiet says nothing about which way it will go: Brown Bear tested calm-before-a-move as a reason to buy, and it did not work.
Repair Pathway
- Nearest Trigger Relative momentum rank back above 0.45 repair trigger repair engine identifies this as the nearest technical repair catalyst · Broadly stable
- Trigger 2 EMA20 continuation hold already above Track 2 pathway: price is above a rising EMA20; sustained hold would support momentum continuation · Broadly stable
- Trigger 3 Volume confirmation above 1.5x +0.50x volume confirmation would improve confidence in the pathway · Broadly stable
- Trigger 4 MACD histogram acceleration turns positive secondary repair secondary repair catalyst could add confirmation if the primary trigger develops · Broadly stable
- Trigger 5 Relative momentum rank above 0.65 +0.64 rank relative momentum leadership is not yet strong enough for the next action tier · Broadly stable
Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑
Insider activity
| Activity | Insider selling |
|---|---|
| Buy filings | 0 |
| Sell filings | 8 |
| Shares sold | 40,249 |
| Value sold | $1.2m |
| Latest sell | 2026-08-20 |
| Filed | Insider | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Sold Datta SanjayPresident, Capital& Enterprise | 8,945 | $251,298 |
| 2026-08-20 | Sold Darling ScottChief Legal Officer | 7,696 | $216,216 |
| 2026-08-20 | Sold Mirgorodskaya NataliaSee Remarks | 586 | $16,461 |
| 2026-08-19 | Sold Datta SanjayPresident, Capital& Enterprise | 10,000 | $314,633 |
| 2026-08-19 | Sold Blankmeyer AndreaChief Financial Officer | 3,000 | $87,990 |
| 2026-08-17 | Sold Datta SanjayPresident, Capital& Enterprise | 2,033 | $59,683 |
Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.
Volume confirmation
| Volume-price trend | Above its signal line |
|---|---|
| Confirmation | Marginal |
No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.
Takeaway Slightly more shares change hands on rising days than on falling ones, but the gap is too small to read anything into.
Options Positioning
No binary-event flag
UPST: no binary-event flag. Near IV 62%, far IV 70% (ratio 0.88), implied move 7.3%.
| Implied volatility | 62% near (8d) · 70% far (113d) |
|---|---|
| Term structure | 0.88× near/far |
| Historical volatility | 57% |
| Implied vs historical | 1.09× |
| Implied move | ±7.3% by 2026-09-04 |
| Implied move vs ATR | 0.50× |
| Skew | Flat (0.92×) |
| Call wall | 35.00 (+16.1% away) |
| Put wall | 30.00 (-0.5% away) |
| Gamma pin | 35.00 |
Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs less for the next few weeks than for the next few months, which is the normal state of affairs and suggests no particular date is worrying anyone. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 7.3% in either direction by 2026-09-04.
Chain as at 2026-08-27. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.
Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑
Relative Rotation
Mixed Rotation Phase
Rotation health 64.6/100; Positive Rotation.
| Rotation health | 64.6 |
|---|---|
| Rotation strength | 81.7 |
| Leg | Quadrant | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock vs sector | Weakening | 113.5 | 78.2 |
| Stock vs SPY | Weakening | 115.7 | 84.1 |
| Sector vs SPY | Improving | 92.5 | 124.1 |
Direction of travel: South-East / trend strong but momentum cooling
Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.
News Headlines
- Loading headlines\u2026
Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.
Detailed Scoring
Positive signals
- Piotroski F-score 5/9 (+5.0)
- Altman Z-score 3.00 (+3.0)
- High earnings quality (accrual ratio 0.000) (+1.0)
- Relative Strength 10.5% vs sector: OUTPERFORMING (+9.5)
- Track 2: MACD histogram state (0.15) (+2.9)
- Track 2: MACD line/signal trend quality (+8.7)
- Track 2: MACD slope expanding (+2.9)
- Track 2: relative strength trend improving (+9.5)
- Track 2: 20-day momentum acceleration 0.39 (+30.2)
- Track 2: bullish DI spread 0.9 (+2.9)
- Track 2: ADX 30.1 and falling (+7.6)
- Track 2: price above EMA20 by 1.8% (+0.9)
- Track 2: EMA20 slope expanding 0.3% (+0.5)
- Track 2: price above EMA50 by 0.7% (+0.3)
- Track 2: Bollinger position 0.67 (+5.1)
Negative signals
- Track 2: weak volume for momentum setup (0.63x average)
- Weak relative momentum rank (0.01)
- Track 2: RSI deterioration/overheating 52.9, 5-day change -11.3
- Track 2: weak VPT confirmation (0.00)
- Track 2: EMA50 slope deteriorating -0.3%
- FCF margin unavailable: revenue missing from fundamentals cache
- Track 2 structural exemption: structural score 9.0/100 below the 25 quality floor; this is an unowned speculative candidate, so the universal SELL gate was skipped and the Track 2 momentum/RRG grid was allowed to evaluate instead. Structural quality here is weak by design for this kind of candidate -- treat any resulting BUY as higher risk than a Track 1 signal.
Chase risk is not elevated for this name, so extension penalties are omitted from the negative signals above.