XPEV

XPeng ·Consumer Discretionary
11.38 live · 2026-08-27 15:00

Some scores are at the bottom of their range

This score sits at the bottom of the 0–100 range. The underlying calculation was negative, so the displayed value is a floor, not a measurement of zero.

  • Tactical Score: displayed 0, underlying value -31.3
1.8%
Brown Bear Score
10.3%
Business Conviction Score
20.0%
Position Health Score
2.1%
Chase Risk
Daily closes

Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · -51.9% · range 11.15–28.07

Score trends appear once the scores have been recorded on more than one trading day.

The Businesswhat the company reports

Business & cash flow

FCF / revenue
Gross margin 0.0%
ROIC 0.0%
Forward P/E 22.6

No annual filing with both total assets and a cash-flow figure is cached for this name, so neither validated measure can be computed. FCF/revenue is shown instead, which is not the validated measure.

Price vs Earnings growth

Trailing EPS is negative (-0.49), so a growth percentage does not exist — forward EPS of 0.52 implies a swing from loss to profit

Confidence 35.0/100

Takeaway Low data confidence (limited analyst coverage) — treat this section as informational only.

The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑

Price Levels

StrategyCurrent Price Reasonable
Reference band 11.53 — 11.83
Protective stop 10.75 (Atr, 8.0% risk)
Support 11.51 (2 touches, 1.7% away)
Resistance 12.27 (4.8% away)

Takeaway The shares are nearer the floor than the ceiling: about 1.7% above 11.51, a price buyers have stepped in at before, and 4.8% below 12.27, where sellers have turned up before. That floor has held 2 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 8.0% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.

Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.

Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)

Daily cloudPrice BELOW the cloud | periods 8/23/46 (88% of classic 9/26/52)
LinesTenkan/Kijun BEAR | cloud twist BEAR
Cloud thickness38% percentile
Chikou spanNot clear of price from 26 periods ago
Weekly cloudPrice BELOW the weekly cloud (context only, not scored)

Takeaway The stock is trading below its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 12.41 to 12.76. Being below it means the medium-term picture is pointing downwards, and that band is the first hurdle it would have to climb back through. Its shorter-term averages agree with that.

Trailing returns

21 days -7.9%
63 days -28.8%
126 days -35.6%
252 days -49.2%
Below 252d high58.3%

Trend context

PositionAt trend
ExtensionNormal
Trend slopeFalling sharply
Direction of travelConverging back to trend

Takeaway Kalman fair trend is falling sharply; downside trend risk remains elevated.

Volatility

State No recent compression
Current band width14.5% of price
Recent tightest14.5% (0 sessions ago, narrower than 77.0% of its history)
Expansion since1.00×
Band 11.11 — 12.85

Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 15% wide. That is normal for this stock, so there is nothing unusual to read into it either way.

Repair Pathway

  1. Nearest Trigger Positive 20-day momentum acceleration repair trigger repair engine identifies this as the nearest technical repair catalyst · Broadly stable
  2. Trigger 2 Relative momentum rank back above 0.45 secondary repair secondary repair catalyst could add confirmation if the primary trigger develops · Broadly stable
  3. Trigger 3 Bollinger recovery toward mid-band +0.11 band position price remains in the lower Bollinger zone; recovery toward mid-band would support repair · Broadly stable
  4. Trigger 4 Volume confirmation above 1.5x +0.50x volume confirmation would improve confidence in the pathway · Broadly stable
  5. Trigger 5 EMA50 reclaim +10.1% gap is improving · Broadly stable

Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑

Insider activity

ActivityNo filings in the window
Buy filings0
Sell filings0

Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.

Volume confirmation

Volume-price trend Below its signal line
Confirmation Marginal

No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.

Takeaway The heaviest trading has been happening on days when the price falls: when large numbers of shares change hands, the price has tended to go down rather than up. That tells you where the weight of trading has been. It does not tell you what happens next, and it is not a signal to sell.

Options Positioning

No binary-event flag

XPEV: no binary-event flag. Near IV 51%, far IV 55% (ratio 0.93), implied move 6.0%.

Implied volatility 51% near (8d) · 55% far (141d)
Term structure 0.93× near/far
Historical volatility 50%
Implied vs historical 1.02×
Implied move ±6.0% by 2026-09-04
Implied move vs ATR 0.66×
Skew Put Skew (1.33×)
Call wall 20.00 (+75.8% away)
Put wall 7.00 (-38.5% away)
Gamma pin 17.00

Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs less for the next few weeks than for the next few months, which is the normal state of affairs and suggests no particular date is worrying anyone. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 6.0% in either direction by 2026-09-04.

Chain as at 2026-08-27. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.

Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑

Relative Rotation

ImprovingLeadingLaggingWeakeningvs sectorvs SPYsector vs SPYRS-Ratio →RS-Momentum →

Early Stock Rotation

Rotation health 82.7/100; Strong Rotation Tailwind.

Rotation health 82.7
Rotation strength 81.5
LegQuadrantRS-RatioRS-Mom
Stock vs sector Improving 98.3 122.0
Stock vs SPY Leading 103.2 122.5
Sector vs SPY Weakening 110.8 88.9

Direction of travel: North-East / strengthening leadership

Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.

News Headlines

  1. Loading headlines\u2026

Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.

Detailed Scoring

Positive signals

  • Piotroski F-score 5/9 (+5.0)
  • Altman Z-score 3.00 (+3.0)
  • High earnings quality (accrual ratio 0.000) (+1.0)
  • Track 2: MACD line/signal trend quality (+8.7)
  • Track 2: MACD slope expanding (+2.9)
  • Track 2: volume expansion 1.05x average (+1.3)
  • Track 2: bullish DI spread 3.4 (+2.9)
  • Track 2: RSI trend quality 50.4, 5-day change +14.6 (+11.2)
  • Track 2: Bollinger position 0.34 (+2.6)

Negative signals

  • Underperforming sector over 20 days
  • Track 2: negative MACD regime (-3.7)
  • Relative strength versus sector deteriorating
  • Track 2: negative 20-day momentum acceleration (-0.09)
  • Track 2: weak/falling ADX (22.6, falling)
  • Weak relative momentum rank (0.02)
  • Track 2: price below EMA20 by 2.7%
  • Track 2: EMA20 slope deteriorating -1.7%
  • Track 2: weak VPT confirmation (-0.04)
  • Track 2: price below EMA50 by 9.1%
  • Track 2: EMA50 slope deteriorating -4.0%
  • FCF margin unavailable: revenue missing from fundamentals cache
  • Track 2 structural exemption: structural score 9.0/100 below the 25 quality floor; this is an unowned speculative candidate, so the universal SELL gate was skipped and the Track 2 momentum/RRG grid was allowed to evaluate instead. Structural quality here is weak by design for this kind of candidate -- treat any resulting BUY as higher risk than a Track 1 signal.

Chase risk is not elevated for this name, so extension penalties are omitted from the negative signals above.