XYL
Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · -15.0% · range 106.34–152.95
The Businesswhat the company reports
Business & cash flow
| FCF / assets | 5.2% |
|---|---|
| OCF / assets | 7.0% |
| FCF / revenue | 13.7% |
| Gross margin | 39.2% |
| ROIC | 8.2% |
| Forward P/E | 19.7 |
FCF/assets and OCF/assets are the cash-flow measures Brown Bear's own testing found to survive; FCF/revenue is shown alongside for context. Assets are from the latest annual filing (FY2025).
Price vs Earnings growth
Forward EPS growth has outpaced trailing price return by +63.8pp
Confidence 95.0/100
Drivers
| Forward EPS growth | +48.8% |
|---|---|
| Trailing price return (1y) | -15.0% |
| Forward P/E compression | +32.8% |
Figures
| Trailing EPS | 4.16 |
|---|---|
| Forward EPS | 6.19 |
| Trailing P/E | 29.31 |
| Forward P/E | 19.69 |
Revisions
Stable (-0.0%, 10 dates)
Takeaway Earnings growth is outpacing price — consistent with the stock not yet fully reflecting its improving forward estimates.
Reported earnings
Revenue Net incomeEPS (GAAP) (0.63–1.37, own scale) Derived Q4
12 quarters to Q2 26. Revenue and net income share one scale, so the gap between them is the margin. The line is GAAP EPS — it spans every quarter shown, where the reported figure only goes back as far as the consensus feed does.
| Quarter ending | Revenue | YoY | Net income | EPS (GAAP) | EPS reported | vs consensus | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | 2.34bn | +1.5% | 263.00m | 1.11 | 1.46 | +8.1% | 2026-07-28 |
| 2026-03-31 | 2.12bn | +2.7% | 193.00m | 0.79 | 1.12 | +2.2% | 2026-04-28 |
| 2025-12-31 (derived) | 2.40bn | +6.2% | 335.00m | 1.37 | 1.42 | -0.3% | 2026-02-25 |
| 2025-09-30 | 2.27bn | +7.8% | 227.00m | 0.93 | 1.37 | +10.0% | 2025-10-28 |
| 2025-06-30 | 2.30bn | +6.1% | 226.00m | 0.93 | — | — | 2025-07-31 |
| 2025-03-31 | 2.07bn | +1.8% | 169.00m | 0.69 | — | — | 2025-04-29 |
| 2024-12-31 (derived) | 2.26bn | +6.5% | 326.00m | 1.34 | — | — | 2025-03-03 |
| 2024-09-30 | 2.10bn | +1.3% | 217.00m | 0.89 | — | — | 2024-10-31 |
| 2024-06-30 | 2.17bn | — | 194.00m | 0.80 | — | — | 2024-07-30 |
| 2024-03-31 | 2.03bn | — | 153.00m | 0.63 | — | — | 2024-05-02 |
| 2023-12-31 (derived) | 2.12bn | — | 266.00m | 1.22 | — | — | 2024-02-28 |
| 2023-09-30 | 2.08bn | — | 152.00m | 0.63 | — | — | 2023-10-31 |
Earnings response
| Typical move around a filing | ±4.7% |
|---|---|
| On an ordinary two days | ±1.2% — filings move it 4.1× as much |
| Direction | 8 up, 4 down over 12 filings |
Revenue up year on year Revenue down Price move around the filing separate scales — a crossing means nothing
| Quarter ending | Filed | Revenue YoY | Move around filing | Next 20 sessions vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-28 | +1.5% | +1.6% | — |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-04-28 | +2.7% | -6.6% | -11.0% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-10-28 | +7.8% | +2.4% | -6.4% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-07-31 | +6.1% | +8.9% | -3.9% |
| 2025-03-31 | 2025-04-29 | +1.8% | +4.0% | -1.8% |
| 2024-09-30 | 2024-10-31 | +1.3% | -8.3% | +0.9% |
| 2024-06-30 | 2024-07-30 | +26.0% | -5.7% | +0.4% |
| 2024-03-31 | 2024-05-02 | +40.4% | +4.8% | -1.9% |
| 2023-09-30 | 2023-10-31 | +50.4% | +5.8% | +3.7% |
| 2023-06-30 | 2023-08-04 | +26.2% | -1.3% | -8.0% |
| 2023-03-31 | 2023-05-04 | +13.8% | +4.6% | -5.8% |
| 2022-09-30 | 2022-11-01 | +9.1% | +1.8% | +0.8% |
Share count
Diluted shares Return since the previous filing
| Direction | Shrinking — shares retired |
|---|---|
| Diluted shares | 236.6M as at 2026-06-30 |
| Change over 1 year | -3.0% |
| Change over 3 years | +14.4% |
| Public float | $31.00bn as at 2025-06-30 (10-K) |
The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑
Price Levels
| Strategy | Current Price Reasonable |
|---|---|
| Reference band | 120.10 — 123.15 |
| Protective stop | 117.16 (Structure, 3.7% risk) |
| Support | 118.86 (7 touches, 2.6% away) |
| Resistance | 123.07 (0.9% away) |
Takeaway The shares are nearer the ceiling than the floor: about 0.9% below 123.07, where sellers have turned up before, and 2.6% above 118.86, where buyers have stepped in before. That floor has held 7 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 3.7% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.
Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.
Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)
| Daily cloud | Price ABOVE the cloud | periods 5/15/30 (57% of classic 9/26/52) |
|---|---|
| Lines | Tenkan/Kijun BULL | cloud twist BEAR (fresh down, 4d ago) |
| Cloud event | Fresh up breakout 2d ago |
| Cloud thickness | 9% percentile (thin — little structure to fight through) |
| Chikou span | Above price from 26 periods ago |
| Weekly cloud | Price INSIDE the weekly cloud (context only, not scored) |
Takeaway The stock is trading above its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 120.75 to 120.99. Being above it means the medium-term picture is pointing upwards, and that band is the first place the stock has recent support if it slips back. Its shorter-term averages agree with that.
Trailing returns
| 21 days | +0.3% |
|---|---|
| 63 days | +9.3% |
| 126 days | -5.4% |
| 252 days | -14.7% |
| Below 252d high | 20.3% |
Trend context
| Position | At trend |
|---|---|
| Extension | Normal |
| Trend slope | Flat |
| Direction of travel | Converging back to trend |
Takeaway The share price is close to the level its own longer-run trend suggests is fair, and that fair level is going sideways. The gap between the two has been closing. Neither is stretched far enough to stand out.
Volatility
| State | No recent compression |
|---|---|
| Current band width | 9.0% of price |
| Recent tightest | 8.5% (9 sessions ago, narrower than 76.0% of its history) |
| Expansion since | 1.06× |
| Band | 115.10 — 125.94 |
Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 9% wide. That is normal for this stock, so there is nothing unusual to read into it either way.
Historical trends
History begins when the site started recording, not when the company listed, so a short line means a short record and nothing more.
Repair Pathway
- Nearest Trigger ADX turns up from weak trend zone repair trigger repair engine identifies this as the nearest technical repair catalyst · Improving rapidly
- Trigger 2 MACD repair streak continuation 3 improving bars MACD histogram has improved for 3 consecutive sessions · Broadly stable
- Trigger 3 Positive 20-day momentum acceleration secondary repair secondary repair catalyst could add confirmation if the primary trigger develops · Broadly stable
- Trigger 4 EMA20 continuation hold already above Track 2 pathway: price is above a rising EMA20; sustained hold would support momentum continuation · Broadly stable
- Trigger 5 Volume confirmation above 1.5x +0.50x volume confirmation would improve confidence in the pathway · Broadly stable
Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑
Insider activity
| Activity | No filings in the window |
|---|---|
| Buy filings | 0 |
| Sell filings | 0 |
Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.
Volume confirmation
| Volume-price trend | Above its signal line |
|---|---|
| Confirmation | Strong |
No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.
Takeaway More shares change hands on the days this stock rises than on the days it falls. That is what you would expect to see if the rise is being driven by real buying rather than drifting up on a thin market.
Options Positioning
No binary-event flag
XYL: no binary-event flag. Near IV 27%, far IV 27% (ratio 1.00), implied move 3.3%.
| Implied volatility | 27% near (9d) · 27% far (65d) |
|---|---|
| Term structure | 1.00× near/far |
| Historical volatility | 34% |
| Implied vs historical | 0.77× |
| Implied move | ±3.3% by 2026-08-21 |
| Implied move vs ATR | 0.40× |
| Skew | Call Skew (0.83×) |
| Call wall | 125.00 (+2.5% away) |
| Put wall | 120.00 (-1.6% away) |
| Gamma pin | 125.00 |
Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs less for the next few weeks than for the next few months, which is the normal state of affairs and suggests no particular date is worrying anyone. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 3.3% in either direction by 2026-08-21.
Chain as at 2026-08-12. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.
Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑
Relative Rotation
Repair Attempt
Rotation health 41.2/100; Negative Rotation.
| Rotation health | 41.2 |
|---|---|
| Rotation strength | 62.6 |
| Leg | Quadrant | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock vs sector | Lagging | 86.8 | 99.0 |
| Stock vs SPY | Improving | 82.9 | 100.8 |
| Sector vs SPY | Improving | 87.2 | 105.9 |
Direction of travel: North-West / early recovery
Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.
News Headlines
- Loading headlines\u2026
Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.
Detailed Scoring
Positive signals
- Piotroski F-score 6/9 (+8.0)
- Altman Z-score 4.08 (+5.0)
- Gross margin quality: 39.2% (+1.9)
- ROIC quality: 8.2% (+0.9)
- FCF margin quality: 13.7% (+4.1)
- FCF margin improving by -1.0 pts (+-1.0)
- High earnings quality (accrual ratio -0.016) (+1.0)
- Track 2: MACD line/signal trend quality (+18.0)
- Track 2: positive MACD trend regime (+10.0)
- Track 2: MACD slope expanding (+2.0)
- Track 2: bullish DI spread 15.6 (+8.0)
- Track 2: price above EMA20 by 1.3% (+1.1)
- Track 2: EMA20 slope expanding 0.7% (+1.7)
- Track 2: RSI trend quality 59.1, 5-day change +14.0 (+11.2)
- Track 2: VPT strength 1.69 (+12.0)
- Track 2: price above EMA50 by 2.8% (+2.2)
- Track 2: EMA50 slope improving 0.9% (+2.1)
- Track 2: constructive pullback within uptrend (+10)
- Track 2: Bollinger position 0.63 (+5.0)
Negative signals
- Underperforming sector over 20 days
- Track 2: weak volume for momentum setup (0.66x average)
- Relative strength versus sector deteriorating
- Track 2: negative 20-day momentum acceleration (-0.09)
- Track 2: weak/falling ADX (17.8, falling)
- Weak relative momentum rank (0.17)
- Track 2 structural exemption: structural score 19.9/100 below the 25 quality floor; this is an unowned speculative candidate, so the universal SELL gate was skipped and the Track 2 momentum/RRG grid was allowed to evaluate instead. Structural quality here is weak by design for this kind of candidate -- treat any resulting BUY as higher risk than a Track 1 signal.
Chase risk is not elevated for this name, so extension penalties are omitted from the negative signals above.