VLN

Valens Semiconductor Ltd. ·NYSETechnology
1.76 live · 2026-08-31 15:59
0.0%
Brown Bear Score
0.0%
Business Conviction Score
20.0%
Position Health Score
0.0%
Chase Risk
My watchlist
Daily closes
1.111.722.322.923.531.78

Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · -11.4% · range 1.11–3.53

The Businesswhat the company reports

Business & cash flow

FCF / revenue -18.0%
Gross margin 61.8%
ROIC -28.0%
Forward P/E -23.2

No annual filing with both total assets and a cash-flow figure is cached for this name, so neither validated measure can be computed. FCF/revenue is shown instead, which is not the validated measure.

Price vs Earnings growth

Trailing EPS is negative (-0.31) and forward EPS is not positive, so a growth percentage does not exist

Confidence 35.0/100

Drivers

Trailing price return (1y) -11.4%

Figures

Trailing EPS -0.31
Forward EPS -0.08
Forward P/E -23.22

Revisions

Improving (+7.9%, 10 dates)

Takeaway Low data confidence (limited analyst coverage) — treat this section as informational only.

Valuation: dearer or cheaper than usual

Brown Bear holds too few quarterly filings for this company to measure a valuation range.

Dividends: what it pays you

VLN pays no dividend. Any return from owning it has to come from the share price. That is an ordinary choice rather than a fault — a company keeping its profit is reinvesting it, buying back shares, or holding it.

How similar companies reacted to their last report

Peers with a recent report5
Direction 1 up, 4 down on their own last report
Typical move±4.6%
When peers reported, and how the market reacted
MPWR revenue +26.1% year on yearMPWR reported 2026-05-04: price +0.3%MPWR4 MaySWKS revenue -1.0% year on yearSWKS reported 2026-05-05: price -5.6%SWKS5 MayALAB revenue +93.4% year on yearALAB reported 2026-05-06: price -9.3%ALAB6 MayMCHP revenue +35.1% year on yearMCHP reported 2026-05-21: price -0.1%MCHP21 MayCRDO revenue +157.0% year on yearCRDO reported 2026-06-15: price -4.6%CRDO15 Jun

Revenue up year on year Revenue down Price rose around the report Price fell around the report separate scales — a crossing means nothing

TickerQuarter endingReported Move around reportNext 20 sessions vs SPY
CRDO Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd 2026-05-02 (derived) 2026-06-15  (filing date) -4.6% -13.4%
MCHP Microchip Technology Incorporated 2026-03-31 (derived) 2026-05-21  (filing date) -0.1% +1.2%
ALAB Astera Labs, Inc. 2026-03-31 2026-05-06  (filing date) -9.3% +61.2%

Peers are same-sector names closest to VLN by revenue — a coarse comp set, not a hand-picked one.

The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑

Price Levels

StrategyCurrent Price Reasonable
Reference band 1.75 — 1.80
Protective stop 1.64 (Structure, 7.5% risk)
Support 1.70 (2 touches, 4.7% away)
Resistance 1.80 (0.9% away)

Takeaway The shares are nearer the ceiling than the floor: about 0.9% below 1.80, where sellers have turned up before, and 4.7% above 1.70, where buyers have stepped in before. That floor has held 2 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 7.5% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.

Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.

Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)

Daily cloudPrice BELOW the cloud | periods 7/21/41 (79% of classic 9/26/52)
LinesTenkan/Kijun BEAR | cloud twist BEAR
Cloud eventFresh down breakout 1d ago
Cloud thickness3% percentile (thin — little structure to fight through)
Chikou spanAbove price from 26 periods ago
Weekly cloudPrice BELOW the weekly cloud (context only, not scored)

Takeaway The stock is trading below its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 1.81 to 1.82. Being below it means the medium-term picture is pointing downwards, and that band is the first hurdle it would have to climb back through. Its shorter-term averages agree with that.

Trailing returns

21 days +13.4%
63 days -46.9%
126 days +20.3%
252 days -12.3%
Below 252d high49.6%

Trend context

PositionAt trend
ExtensionNormal
Trend slopeFlat
Direction of travelHolding its deviation

Takeaway The share price is close to the level its own longer-run trend suggests is fair, and that fair level is going sideways. The gap between the two has been fairly steady. Neither is stretched far enough to stand out.

Volatility

State In a squeeze
Current band width18.3% of price
Recent tightest18.3% (0 sessions ago, narrower than 98.0% of its history)
Expansion since1.00×
Band 1.63 — 1.96

Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 18% wide, and it recently went unusually quiet — calmer than it has been 98% of the time. When a stock goes quiet like this, its next move tends to look big by comparison. But quiet says nothing about which way it will go: Brown Bear tested calm-before-a-move as a reason to buy, and it did not work.

Historical trends

02550751002026-06-212026-08-31
Position Health Business Conviction

History begins when the site started recording, not when the company listed, so a short line means a short record and nothing more.

Repair Pathway

  1. Nearest Trigger EMA20 reclaim +1.2% gap is improving · Broadly stable
  2. Trigger 2 Relative momentum rank back above 0.45 repair trigger repair engine identifies this as the nearest technical repair catalyst · Broadly stable
  3. Trigger 3 Volume confirmation above 1.5x +0.50x volume confirmation would improve confidence in the pathway · Broadly stable
  4. Trigger 4 MACD histogram acceleration turns positive secondary repair secondary repair catalyst could add confirmation if the primary trigger develops · Broadly stable
  5. Trigger 5 EMA50 reclaim +5.9% gap is deteriorating · Broadly stable

Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑

Insider activity

ActivityInsider selling
Buy filings0
Sell filings7
Shares sold16,858
Value sold$31.8k
Latest sell2026-08-07
FiledInsiderSharesValue
2026-08-07 Sold Rozenberg Haine YaelVP Finance 625 $1,062
2026-07-23 Sold Rozenberg Haine YaelVP Finance 2,750 $4,746

Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.

Insider timeline

InsiderFilingsSharesValue
Sold Rozenberg Haine YaelVP Finance 2026-07-20 – 2026-08-07 (4 days) 4 7,958 $13.7k
Sold Yaacobi TalDirector 2026-07-01 – 2026-07-14 (2 days) 2 5,150 $10.6k
Sold LICHTMAN MOSHEDirector 2026-07-14 1 3,750 $7.5k

Open-market purchases and sales only, grouped by person over the last 75 days — one decision is often split across several filings, so the number of filings is not the number of buyers. Sold $31.8k across 3 people. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded. Brown Bear has not found insider buying to predict returns on its own, so this is a record of what was filed, not a recommendation.

Volume confirmation

Volume-price trend Above its signal line
Confirmation Marginal

No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.

Takeaway Slightly more shares change hands on rising days than on falling ones, but the gap is too small to read anything into.

Options Positioning

No binary-event flag

VLN: no binary-event flag. Near IV 146%, far IV 142% (ratio 1.03), implied move 25.8%.

Implied volatility 146% near (18d) · 142% far (81d)
Term structure 1.03× near/far
Historical volatility 64%
Implied vs historical 2.27× — Options are priced well above what the stock has actually done
Implied move ±25.8% by 2026-09-18 — Large relative to this stock's normal daily range
Implied move vs ATR 0.96×
Skew Flat (1.00×)
Call wall 5.00 (+180.9% away)
Put wall 1.50 (-15.7% away)
Gamma pin 5.00
  • Implied move 25.8% is 0.96x the ATR-expected 27.0% over 18d

Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs less for the next few weeks than for the next few months, which is the normal state of affairs and suggests no particular date is worrying anyone. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 25.8% in either direction by 2026-09-18.

Chain as at 2026-08-31. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.

Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑

Relative Rotation

ImprovingLeadingLaggingWeakeningvs sectorvs SPYsector vs SPYRS-Ratio →RS-Momentum →

Sector Headwind / Stock Mixed

Rotation health 44.4/100; Negative Rotation.

Rotation health 44.4
Rotation strength 77.3
LegQuadrantRS-RatioRS-Mom
Stock vs sector Weakening 111.7 85.1
Stock vs SPY Weakening 111.4 85.1
Sector vs SPY Weakening 107.7 85.0

Direction of travel: South-West / deteriorating rotation

Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.

News Headlines

  1. Loading headlines\u2026

Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.

Detailed Scoring

Positive signals

  • Insider conviction score (+5.0)
  • Gross margin quality: 61.8% (+4.2)
  • FCF margin improving by -19.8 pts (+-1.0)
  • High earnings quality (accrual ratio -0.140) (+3.0)
  • Track 2: MACD line/signal trend quality (+15.0)
  • Track 2: MACD slope expanding (+5.0)
  • Track 2: 20-day momentum acceleration 0.32 (+20.0)
  • Track 2: bullish DI spread 8.5 (+3.0)
  • Track 2: ADX 30.4 and flat (+12.0)
  • Track 2: EMA20 slope expanding 0.3% (+0.8)
  • Track 2: RSI trend quality 56.8, 5-day change +5.4 (+4.3)
  • Track 2: Bollinger position 0.45 (+3.6)

Negative signals

  • Track 2: negative MACD regime (-8.0)
  • Track 2: weak volume for momentum setup (0.69x average)
  • Relative strength versus sector deteriorating
  • Weak relative momentum rank (0.20)
  • Track 2: Bearish MACD divergence
  • Track 2: price below EMA20 by 1.1%
  • Track 2: weak VPT confirmation (0.00)
  • Track 2: price below EMA50 by 5.6%
  • Track 2: EMA50 slope deteriorating -2.1%
  • Weak Piotroski F-score (2/9)
  • Below-average Altman Z-score (1.99)
  • ROIC improving by -4.0 pts (+-2.0)
  • Track 2 structural exemption: structural score 0.0/100 below the 25 quality floor; this is an unowned speculative candidate, so the universal SELL gate was skipped and the Track 2 momentum/RRG grid was allowed to evaluate instead. Structural quality here is weak by design for this kind of candidate -- treat any resulting BUY as higher risk than a Track 1 signal.

Chase risk is not elevated for this name, so extension penalties are omitted from the negative signals above.