FCEL
Structural scoring is not meaningful for this business
Structural scoring uses gross margin, free cash flow and Altman Z — measures built for operating companies. For banks, insurers and asset managers they produce artifacts, because the cash-flow statement is dominated by lending and deposit flows rather than operations. Treat the structural and composite figures below as not comparable with other sectors, in either direction.
- Reported free cash flow is far outside the range an operating business can show, indicating balance-sheet rather than operating flows
Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · +310.2% · range 3.92–36.01
The Businesswhat the company reports
Business & cash flow
| FCF / assets | -15.4% |
|---|---|
| OCF / assets | -13.4% |
| FCF / revenue | -79.2% |
| Gross margin | -18.2% |
| ROIC | -20.9% |
| Forward P/E | -15.8 |
FCF/assets and OCF/assets are the cash-flow measures Brown Bear's own testing found to survive; FCF/revenue is shown alongside for context. Assets are from the latest annual filing (FY2025).
What the company does
Our Market Opportunity and Value Proposition Proprietary Rights and Licensed Technology Raw Material Sourcing and Supplier Relationships Engineering, Procurement and Construction This Annual Report on Form 10-K contains. statements that the Company believes to be “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 (the “PSLRA”). All statements other than statements of historical fact included in this Form 10-K, including statements regarding the Company’s future financial condition, future results of operations, plans, objectives, expectations, future performance, future business operations and business prospects, are forward-looking statements.
From the company's most recent annual report filed with the SEC, shown as filed — this is the company describing its own business, not a Brown Bear assessment. Read the filing.
Price vs Earnings growth
Trailing EPS is negative (-6.01) and forward EPS is not positive, so a growth percentage does not exist
Confidence 35.0/100
Drivers
| Trailing price return (1y) | +310.2% |
|---|
Figures
| Trailing EPS | -6.01 |
|---|---|
| Forward EPS | -1.09 |
| Forward P/E | -15.80 |
Revisions
Improving (+8.5%, 10 dates)
Takeaway Low data confidence (limited analyst coverage) — treat this section as informational only.
Valuation: dearer or cheaper than usual
FCEL is a bit cheaper than usual — compared with its own last 5 years, not with other companies. You pay $5.57 for every $1 of sales it makes in a year. Normally that has been about $112.62, and over the 5 years it has swung between $0.66 and $1,548.82. 72% of days in that time were dearer than today.
shaded = the middle half of the last 5 years dashed = its normal level dot = today
For 100% of the last 5 years there is no profit figure to compare the price with, because the company was losing money or nothing was filed. The range covers the rest.
Banks and insurers do not have sales in the ordinary sense, so the "vs sales" figure means little for this company. The profit one is fine.
Cheaper than usual is not the same as a bargain — the price may have fallen for a reason. Profit figures run to April 2026, the latest filed.
Dividends: what it pays you
FCEL pays no dividend. Any return from owning it has to come from the share price. That is an ordinary choice rather than a fault — a company keeping its profit is reinvesting it, buying back shares, or holding it.
Reported earnings
Revenue Net income Derived Q4
12 quarters to Q2 26. Revenue and net income share one scale, so the gap between them is the margin. The baseline is zero — bars below it are losses.
EPS (GAAP) -3.75 to -0.04, own scale
Same 12 quarters as the chart above, on their own axis — EPS is dollars per share, not dollars, so it cannot share a scale with revenue or net income without disappearing next to them.
| Quarter ending | Revenue | YoY | Net income | EPS (GAAP) | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 35.59m | -4.9% | -77.91m | -1.44 | 2026-06-08 |
| 2026-01-31 | 30.53m | +60.7% | -22.86m | -0.47 | 2026-03-09 |
| 2025-10-31 (derived) | 55.02m | +11.5% | -29.87m | -1.16 | 2025-12-18 |
| 2025-07-31 | 46.74m | +97.3% | -91.66m | -3.75 | 2025-09-09 |
| 2025-04-30 | 37.41m | +66.8% | -38.05m | -1.75 | 2025-06-06 |
| 2025-01-31 | 19.00m | +13.8% | -28.33m | -1.38 | 2025-03-11 |
| 2024-10-31 (derived) | 49.33m | +119.6% | -41.42m | -2.51 | 2024-12-27 |
| 2024-07-31 | 23.70m | -7.1% | -32.66m | -0.06 | 2024-09-05 |
| 2024-04-30 | 22.42m | — | -32.14m | -0.07 | 2024-06-10 |
| 2024-01-31 | 16.69m | — | -19.79m | -0.04 | 2024-03-07 |
| 2023-10-31 (derived) | 22.46m | — | -30.36m | -0.07 | 2023-12-19 |
| 2023-07-31 | 25.51m | — | -24.28m | -0.06 | 2023-09-11 |
How similar companies reacted to their last report
| Peers with a recent report | 3 |
|---|---|
| Direction | 3 up, 0 down on their own last report |
| Typical move | ±14.1% |
Revenue up year on year Revenue down Price rose around the report Price fell around the report separate scales — a crossing means nothing
| Ticker | Quarter ending | Reported | Move around report | Next 20 sessions vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLUG Plug Power Inc. | 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-11 (filing date) | +14.1% | -17.9% |
| HUBB Hubbell Incorporated | 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-01 (filing date) | +1.5% | -12.4% |
| BE Bloom Energy Corporation | 2026-03-31 | 2026-04-29 (filing date) | +25.2% | -4.7% |
Peers are same-sector names closest to FCEL by revenue — a coarse comp set, not a hand-picked one.
Debt levels
| Total debt | $134.2M |
|---|---|
| Cash & equivalents | $373.2M |
| Net debt | −$239.0M |
| Debt / equity | 0.19x |
From the balance sheet in the company's most recent SEC filing (as of 2026-04-30) — not scored or gauged. "Healthy" debt varies hugely by industry: a utility or a REIT normally carries far more leverage than a software company as a matter of course, so this is context to weigh against the rest of the page, not a pass/fail reading. Net debt is negative here — the company holds more cash than debt.
The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑
Price Levels
| Strategy | Fair Value Anchor |
|---|---|
| Reference band | 12.63 — 17.32 |
| Protective stop | 10.08 (Atr, 32.7% risk) |
| Support | 16.04 (2 touches, 7.4% away) |
| Resistance | 22.86 (32.7% away) |
Takeaway The shares are nearer the floor than the ceiling: about 7.4% above 16.04, a price buyers have stepped in at before, and 32.7% below 22.86, where sellers have turned up before. That floor has held 2 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 32.7% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.
Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.
Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)
| Daily cloud | Price BELOW the cloud | periods 7/20/41 (79% of classic 9/26/52) |
|---|---|
| Lines | Tenkan/Kijun BEAR | cloud twist BEAR |
| Cloud thickness | 71% percentile |
| Chikou span | Not clear of price from 26 periods ago |
| Weekly cloud | Price BELOW the weekly cloud (context only, not scored) |
Takeaway The stock is trading below its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 20.52 to 23.91. Being below it means the medium-term picture is pointing downwards, and that band is the first hurdle it would have to climb back through. Its shorter-term averages agree with that.
Trailing returns
| 21 days | -20.3% |
|---|---|
| 63 days | -19.1% |
| 126 days | +106.8% |
| 252 days | +297.0% |
| Below 252d high | 52.2% |
Trend context
| Position | Far above trend |
|---|---|
| Extension | Extended |
| Trend slope | Rising strongly |
| Direction of travel | Converging back to trend |
Takeaway Positive Kalman trend with moderate extension; constructive for momentum but watch entry risk.
Volatility
| State | In a squeeze |
|---|---|
| Current band width | 30.5% of price |
| Recent tightest | 25.3% (2 sessions ago, narrower than 89.0% of its history) |
| Expansion since | 1.21× |
| Band | 17.01 — 23.13 |
Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 30% wide, and it recently went unusually quiet — calmer than it has been 89% of the time. When a stock goes quiet like this, its next move tends to look big by comparison. But quiet says nothing about which way it will go: Brown Bear tested calm-before-a-move as a reason to buy, and it did not work.
Historical trends
History begins when the site started recording, not when the company listed, so a short line means a short record and nothing more.
Repair Pathway
- Nearest Trigger Relative momentum leadership holds already satisfied Track 2 pathway: relative momentum leadership is already present; maintaining it supports upgrade pressure · Broadly stable
- Trigger 2 MACD bullish crossover repair trigger repair engine identifies this as the nearest technical repair catalyst · Broadly stable
- Trigger 3 RSI recovery above 50 +6.6 pts gap is improving · Improving
- Trigger 4 ADX turns up from weak trend zone secondary repair secondary repair catalyst could add confirmation if the primary trigger develops · Improving
- Trigger 5 Relative strength stabilisation state change relative momentum rank supports RS stabilisation · Broadly stable
Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑
Insider activity
| Activity | Mixed buying and selling |
|---|---|
| Buy filings | 1 |
| Sell filings | 1 |
| Shares bought | 26,343 |
| Shares sold | 2,500 |
| Value bought | $495.0k |
| Value sold | $71.8k |
| Latest buy | 2026-07-16 |
| Latest sell | 2026-07-06 |
| Filed | Insider | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | Bought Livingston III Homer JohnDirector | 26,343 | $494,967 |
| 2026-07-06 | Sold Achanta ShankarEVP, Chf. Product &Tech Ofc. | 2,500 | $71,775 |
Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.
Insider timeline
The buyer is a director, totalling $495.0k. No officer bought in this window.
| Insider | Filings | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bought Livingston III Homer JohnDirector 2026-07-16 | 1 | 26,343 | $495.0k |
| Sold Achanta ShankarEVP, Chf. Product &Tech Ofc. 2026-07-06 | 1 | 2,500 | $71.8k |
Open-market purchases and sales only, grouped by person over the last 75 days — one decision is often split across several filings, so the number of filings is not the number of buyers. Bought $495.0k across 1 person.Sold $71.8k across 1 person. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded. Brown Bear has not found insider buying to predict returns on its own, so this is a record of what was filed, not a recommendation.
Volume confirmation
| Volume-price trend | Below its signal line |
|---|---|
| Confirmation | Marginal |
No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.
Takeaway The heaviest trading has been happening on days when the price falls: when large numbers of shares change hands, the price has tended to go down rather than up. That tells you where the weight of trading has been. It does not tell you what happens next, and it is not a signal to sell.
Options Positioning
No binary-event flag
FCEL: no binary-event flag. Near IV 115%, far IV 105% (ratio 1.10), implied move 16.0%.
| Implied volatility | 115% near (11d) · 105% far (137d) |
|---|---|
| Term structure | 1.10× near/far |
| Historical volatility | 94% |
| Implied vs historical | 1.22× |
| Implied move | ±16.0% by 2026-09-11 |
| Implied move vs ATR | 0.42× |
| Skew | Flat (0.95×) |
| Call wall | 20.00 (+16.1% away) |
| Put wall | 15.00 (-12.9% away) |
| Gamma pin | 20.00 |
Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs less for the next few weeks than for the next few months, which is the normal state of affairs and suggests no particular date is worrying anyone. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 16.0% in either direction by 2026-09-11.
Chain as at 2026-08-31. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.
Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑
Relative Rotation
Stock Rotation Headwind
Rotation health 15.5/100; Severe Rotation Headwind.
| Rotation health | 15.5 |
|---|---|
| Rotation strength | 75.7 |
| Leg | Quadrant | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock vs sector | Lagging | 80.2 | 83.5 |
| Stock vs SPY | Lagging | 77.4 | 86.0 |
| Sector vs SPY | Improving | 79.2 | 101.5 |
Direction of travel: South-West / deteriorating rotation
Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.
News Headlines
- Loading headlines\u2026
Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.
Detailed Scoring
Positive signals
- Insider conviction score (+6.0)
- Gross margin improving by 13.8 pts (+2.0)
- FCF margin improving by 57.1 pts (+2.0)
- High earnings quality (accrual ratio -0.067) (+2.0)
- Accrual ratio improving (0.03 -> -0.07) (+2.0)
- Track 2: volume expansion 1.19x average (+1.0)
- Track 2: 20-day momentum acceleration 0.09 (+8.0)
- Track 2: relative momentum rank 0.99 (+15.0)
- Track 2: RSI trend quality 43.4, 5-day change +5.6 (+4.3)
- Track 2: Bollinger position 0.04 (+0.3)
Negative signals
- Underperforming sector over 20 days
- Track 2: weak MACD histogram (-0.28)
- Track 2: weak MACD line/signal structure (-12.0)
- Track 2: negative MACD regime (-8.0)
- Track 2: MACD slope deteriorating (-5.0)
- Relative strength versus sector deteriorating
- Track 2: bearish DI spread (-5.9)
- Track 2: weak/falling ADX (10.7, flat)
- Track 2: price below EMA20 by 12.8%
- Track 2: EMA20 slope deteriorating -4.2%
- Track 2: weak VPT confirmation (-0.01)
- Track 2: price below EMA50 by 14.7%
- Track 2: EMA50 slope deteriorating -2.8%
- Below-average Altman Z-score (1.51)
- ROIC improving by -4.0 pts (+-2.0)
- Track 2 structural exemption: Z-Score 1.51 below the 1.8 insolvency-risk floor and structural score 0.0/100 below the 25 quality floor; this is an unowned speculative candidate, so the universal SELL gate was skipped and the Track 2 momentum/RRG grid was allowed to evaluate instead. Structural quality here is weak by design for this kind of candidate -- treat any resulting BUY as higher risk than a Track 1 signal.
Chase risk is not elevated for this name, so extension penalties are omitted from the negative signals above.